PAHWM: P* NLHE KO tourney (1 Viewer)

My plan was to check-jam the flop, figuring one of the three behind me would put out a bet. Unfortunately, everyone could see my cards, and no one bet.

Pot 6.420

Turn is :7s:

Action?

It sucks the flop checked through but whatevs. Nothing can be done about that now. Before the next game, go into your setting and find the checkbox for 'enable opponents' Postle Mode' and uncheck it :)

The turn card is unfortunate. But at least there's no flush draw possible. It's also possible no one else likes this card either.

We should at least try to range HERO's opponents:

BB: Preflop he called the raise out of the BB closing the action... so any reasonable hand is likely including all the nines - suited connectors, medium pairs, etc. His flop check means nothing since he may have been robotically checking to the raiser on the flop. Not much to go on TBH.

CO: Probably high cards since he raised pre then checked the flop with only one opponent left to act. 99 or 77 is a possibility but I think he bets any draw on the flop. He probably wants nothing to do with this board and will fold to a small bet in my estimation.

Button: Probably not holding a 9. His range that contains a 9 is limited but includes hands like A-9, 10-9, 8-9, etc. I think if he had a pair and a straight draw he'd have bet when checked to on the flop. I think he would bet J-9 for an OESD to the nuts in position as well. So his check on the flop strongly takes a lot of the 9s out of his range in my opinion. I suspect he has high cards or perhaps a small PP. Prediction: Button will fold to significant aggression.

It's also possible BB or the Button slowplayed a flopped straight but that's the chance you take.

I think this is the classic 'bet to find out where you're at' situation.

I would bet small - something like 1500 (mainly for information) with the intention of evaluating after a raise. I think betting heavily or jamming is reckless.

Checking would be OK too... however if the BB or the Button bets you really have no choice but to call and hope the board pairs on the river. I think it's an easier call if the CO bets.
 
Dude...

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Ok, back at this. I've been out of sorts for the last couple days.

First, a recap of the action, with a correction of a pretty important typo. The ten on the flop was the :10s: not the :10c:. Not sure how I missed that. (@Moxie Mike mentioned no flush possibility, which called my attention to the error.)

Blinds 250/500, ante 60

Hero (19,000) is in the SB with :td::th:
BB (40,000) can be very aggressive
CO (45,000) plays pretty standard, not afraid to call light or with draws
BTN (26,000) pretty straight forward, will chase big draws, raises when strong

Action folds to CO who opens to 1500. BTN calls. Action on hero.

I flatted here. Probably too nitty, but I preferred to preserve my stack for a better spot, than risk being in a tough spot with a marginally strong hand and two or three bigger stacks with position on me.

Big blind calls.

Flop is :ts::8d::6h:

Pot is 6420. Hero (17,500) is first to act.

My plan was to check-jam the flop, figuring one of the three behind me would put out a bet. Unfortunately, everyone could see my cards, and no one bet.

Pot 6.420

Turn is :7s:

I didn't like the turn card. I decided to lead here, but I should have just checked to keep the pot small. I bet around 3500, just a little more than half pot, pretty standard for me.

BB calls, CO (original raiser) now raises to 10,000. BTN calls.

Action on hero. I figure there's at least one 9 out there, and possibly a flush draw. Do I have pot odds to chase a full house?
 
Turn is :7s:

I didn't like the turn card. I decided to lead here, but I should have just checked to keep the pot small. I bet around 3500, just a little more than half pot, pretty standard for me.

BB calls, CO (original raiser) now raises to 10,000. BTN calls.

Action on hero. I figure there's at least one 9 out there, and possibly a flush draw. Do I have pot odds to chase a full house?

This all assumes that you are beat at this point and must improve in order to win.

The pot should be 33,420 when the action gets back to you - and it's 6500 to call. For simplicity let's assume all your outs are live and none make quads or a SF for any of your opponents. You have 10 outs with 40 unseen cards. So yes you're getting the right price. But calling also assumes the risk of the BB reopen the betting. Once you call, the rest of it is going in if it comes down to that.

So after donk-betting 3500 you have 14k (28BBs) left and all opponents have you covered.

It's less a question of pot odds and more of a risk reward analysis. ITM really isn't a consideration yet.

Calling the 6500 raise will leave you with 7500 chips if you don't put another chip in the pot. That's 15 BBs in a 7 handed game where the blinds go up every 5 minutes. While I suppose calling is a viable option - it's either fold or shove as far as I am concerned.

The best case scenario is that you shove and get called by all 3 places. The reward if you fill up or make quads is you will have a stack of ~76000... or ~35% of the chips in play 7 handed. That's huge and will give you a great shot at an ITM finish. But it's also probably wishful thinking.

Jamming is only 7500 more to call for the CO... and assuming he flats the button certain is coming along. No idea what the BB will do if you shove.

I think the most realistic scenario is that if you jam, BB folds, CO jams and probably squeezes out the button. Assuming that happens, the pot will be 61420 which is ~30% of the chips in play. This is a pretty commanding position to be in 7 handed. The downside obviously is that you'll be out of the tournament if you don't improve.

Because this is microstakes, I am jamming. You're probably not going to cash in this tournament anyway if you don't win this hand.
 
Again check turn for pot control.

But as played...The odds someone doesn’t have a 9 have to be <1% with this action. You are behind. You also have 10 outs (probably only 6-7 live though) and are getting an incredible 6-1. Have to call. This would be a slam dunk turn-jam in a cash game, but tourneys have ICM and I think that alone pushes it comfortably into call territory.
 
This would be a slam dunk turn-jam in a cash game, but tourneys have ICM and I think that alone pushes it comfortably into call territory.

Don't you think it's a little early for ICM considerations? Calling and folding to a bricked river only leaves HERO with 15bbs in a 7 handed game with 5 minute levels.

I don't think HERO has a better chance to make a deep run that tripling up through 2 players, even if it means risking elimination.
 
Don't you think it's a little early for ICM considerations? Calling and folding to a bricked river only leaves HERO with 15bbs in a 7 handed game with 5 minute levels.

I don't think HERO has a better chance to make a deep run that tripling up through 2 players, even if it means risking elimination.
Always some ICM, even 7 handed, 5 away from money. Saving 15bb is really like saving 17bb, and the 15bb you stand to win are really only worth about 13bb. That’s how I think about these spots...would I still bet if I have to lay 5:4 to my opponents
 
Blinds 250/500, ante 60

Hero (19,000) is in the SB with :td::th:
BB (40,000) can be very aggressive
CO (45,000) plays pretty standard, not afraid to call light or with draws
BTN (26,000) pretty straight forward, will chase big draws, raises when strong

Action folds to CO who opens to 1500. BTN calls. Action on hero.

I flatted here. Probably too nitty, but I preferred to preserve my stack for a better spot, than risk being in a tough spot with a marginally strong hand and two or three bigger stacks with position on me.

Big blind calls.

Flop is :ts::8d::6h:

Pot is 6420. Hero (17,500) is first to act.

My plan was to check-jam the flop, figuring one of the three behind me would put out a bet. Unfortunately, everyone could see my cards, and no one bet.

Pot 6.420

Turn is :7s:

I didn't like the turn card. I decided to lead here, but I should have just checked to keep the pot small. I bet around 3500, just a little more than half pot, pretty standard for me.

BB calls, CO (original raiser) now raises to 10,000. BTN calls.

Action on hero. I figure there's at least one 9 out there, and possibly a flush draw. Do I have pot odds to chase a full house?
Hero folds, deciding to keep 20+ big blinds in his stack, rather than hope to catch a 10 outer (possibly fewer, if there are lower sets or pairs). Probably too nitty, I suppose. I guess it's a no-guts-no-glory situation.

BB calls. Action checked through on the river. 7000 bonus points to the first person to guess the river card correctly.
 
Wow a jam on the turn would have been called in 3 places and all your outs would have been live.
Yeah, it would have put me in a great spot.

It was such an awkward hand to play. It’s doubtful that BB or CO would have folded to even a pot sized bet on the flop, and then I would have liked the turn spot even less, with only a half pot bet left, and two behind. Maybe a jam on the flop would have gotten it done, and I could make a case for it, just based on my personal experience. Don’t slow play flopped sets, you idiot! :D
 

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