PAHWM: P* NLHE KO tourney

Beakertwang

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This was last night's PCF game on PokerStars. It was a very interesting runout, and I feel like I may have made a couple mistakes.

$15 buy-in, $10 to prize pool, $5 bounty. Started with 10 players, 7 left, top two cash.

I don't remember the exact numbers, so I'll approximate.

Blinds 250/500, ante 60

Hero (19,000) is in the SB with :td::th:
BB (40,000) can be very aggressive
CO (45,000) plays pretty standard, not afraid to call light or with draws
BTN (26,000) pretty straight forward, will chase big draws, raises when strong

Action folds to CO who opens to 1500. BTN calls. Action on hero.
 
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PlaidDragon

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Flat. Let agressive bb bet for you.

Maybe come over the top if bb raises.


My initial suggestion was given your 190000 stack... ;) with 19000 ... hmmmmm.

Raise to 4500. If someone 3-bets... well... ugh.
 
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Moxie Mike

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This was last night's PCF game on PokerStars. It was a very interesting runout, and I feel like I may have made a couple mistakes.

$15 buy-in, $10 to prize pool, $5 bounty. Started with 10 players, 7 left, top two cash.

I don't remember the exact numbers, so I'll approximate.

Blinds 250/500, ante 60

Hero (19,000) is in the SB with :td::th:
BB (40,000) can be very aggressive
CO (45,000) plays pretty standard, not afraid to call light or with draws
BTN (26,000) pretty straight forward, will chase big draws, raises when strong

Action folds to CO who opens to 1500. BTN calls. Action on hero.

In your spot, I'm raising to 6,000. You may get called by one or both which isn't ideal - but there's also a decent chance you'll take it down right there which is a good result. You can also fold if the BB or the initial bettor jams on you (I'm calling if the Button jams). The plan of course if you're called is to jam any reasonably safe flop.

10-10 is a strong hand of course but is vulnerable when OOP against multiple Villains who cover you. I'm content to get it in or take it down right here.
 

Legend5555

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Jam. Here's why;

A standard 3bet is going to need to be at least 6k. But if you get called you are only left with a pot sized bet going to the flop. There are a lot of bad boards that can come. Given the opponent made such a large raise (yes, 3x is large late in a tourney) and there is a call, the pot is now 4170 (if you include your SB). That is 20+% of your stack. And since you are VERY likely ahead given its a CO open and B call, you don't want to just call and see a bad flop, and you don't want the BB tagging along if you call, the best play is to just jam and force everyone else to the decision.
 
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Frogzilla

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Normally would 3-bet this to 5500, but with our stack both flatting and jamming make sense too. Kinda hard to play this one badly
 

Beakertwang

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Normally would 3-bet this to 5500, but with our stack both flatting and jamming make sense too. Kinda hard to play this one badly
You’d be surprised at how badly I can play a hand. :)

I flatted here. Probably too nitty, but I preferred to preserve my stack for a better spot, than risk being in a tough spot with a marginally strong hand and two or three bigger stacks with position on me.

Big blind calls.

Flop is :ts::8d::6h:

Pot is 6420. Hero (17,500) is first to act.
 
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Moxie Mike

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You’d be surprised at how badly I can play a hand. :)

I flatted here. Probably too nitty, but I preferred to preserve my stack for a better spot, than risk being in a tough spot with a marginally strong hand and two or three bigger stacks with position on me.

Flop is :tc::8d::6h:

Pot is 6420. Hero (17,500) is first to act.

So you flatted and the BB folded I assume?

With top set on a coordinated board your goal is to get your stack in asap.

What to do here much depends on whether you think your main opponent will c-bet the flop into two players. It would be bad to check and have it check through, since any Q,J,9,7 or a club/diamond/heart are all treacherous in their various ways. Obviously a 9 or 7 hitting the turn is the worst case scenario.

If you think there's a good chance Villain will c-bet this flop into two opponents, then going for the c/r jam is your best move. If the initial bettor has shown a history of checking back missed flops, then you really need to lead out here. In this case, I would bet about 5000 on this flop and then jam ANY turn that doesn't improve your hand.

If you fill up or make quads on the turn then I think there's merit to slow-playing or down-betting if you still have 1 or both opponents remaining in the hand to pay you off.

In this specific case, I think I like leading out > checking. I think this is a situation where you can learn a lot about your opponents' holdings by taking the lead and laying a bad price to chase a gutshot draw and if you blow them out of the hand sobeit.

There's also the option of open-jamming. It's certainly ambitious - but I don't think anyone is going to 1) fold an overpair/2-pair combo or a smaller set nor would they call with just a gutshot draw. There are some hands in your opponent's ranges that will pay you off... I'm not sure if it's the most +ev play though.

According to this your 83% to win against two random hands FWIW:

1583185218816.png
 

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DrStrange

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Remember I am not that good a tournament player . . .

Hero's "M" is 19,000 / 1,170 = ~16. No need to panic.

By the time action gets to Hero the pot is 4,170, Hero owes 1,250 to call. Hero is getting marginally acceptable odds to set mine; 3x direct + 14x implied. So folding seems to be out.

Is a raise better? A pot sized raise would be 6,670 all day or 5,420, leaving Hero 12,330 behind. Roughly a pot sized jam on the flop. Which sounds good until we realize that most of the time the board will hold one or more over cards and Hero will be in a reverse implied odds situation.

How about all-in? All-in would be roughly a 3x over-bet. Hero wins a lot of times uncontested. I'd give the CO a large number of hands with over card(s) and only a few bigger pairs. 24 over pair hands where Hero is an 1-4 dog, 20 hands where Hero is on the fat side of a flip (54 - 46), and ~~ 120 hands he folds. That is roughly + 1,900 EV.

If Hero is better than the field, maybe he can splash around with a set mining line and hope to navigate a win with some hands without hitting a set. Limp > jam > raise > fold.

If Hero is not better than the field, I see this as Jam > limp > raise > fold. No decisions post flop is good with this hand OOP.

As played: We already assumed CO's range is filled with over cards and relatively few big pairs ( something like 15% over-pairs ) Hero needs to use his villain reads - how often does CO c-bet into a four way flop with only over cards? I'd think not as much as Hero would like. Plus the board is somewhat coordinated, making free cards more dangerous to top set.

I think Hero should lead out. Hero has 17,500 left to bet vs a 6,420 pot. I see no reason to use a fancy play. Bet 6,000 now and jam 11,500 on all brick turns. Hero can do any fancy play he wishes vs a turn that pairs the board.
 

Moxie Mike

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If Hero is/is not better than the field...

Can you expand on what you mean by this?

This is difficult to interpret or see how it applies to this exact situation in real time.

If I were to guess, I would infer that you're saying that HERO's perceived superior skills might allow him to exploit his opponents' mistakes later on in the tournament, so no need to go crazy with 10-10 OOP while still operating a decent stack.

Or are you saying something specific about this particular hand?
 

TheWhiteJZ

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Can you expand on what you mean by this?

This is difficult to interpret or see how it applies to this exact situation in real time.

If I were to guess, I would infer that you're saying that HERO's perceived superior skills might allow him to exploit his opponents' mistakes later on in the tournament, so no need to go crazy with 10-10 OOP while still operating a decent stack.

Or are you saying something specific about this particular hand?

he’s saying, if you think you have post flop advantage you might play differently vs if you don’t. Nothing controversial here.
 

DrStrange

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Hero is out of position. He has a top tier hand that is hard to play post flop, more so out of position. Hero's stack size is awkard.

These are the reasons why Hero's relative skill matters.

Hero vs a field with equal or better skills should make decisions that are "easy". The shove is easy. No more decisions, all of the wrong choices are in the hands of the villains. Hero has +EV vs the range of the field even if they don't make mistakes.

Hero vs a weak field can try to extract extra value while avoiding getting stacked in hands where tens aren't the best preflop cards. Maybe the field is fit/fold and will telegraph their hands by betting winners and checking losers. Maybe the preflop aggressor is way over aggressive and hero can pick off big bluff c-bets. Here, Hero gets a chance to deploy his superior skills and make additional profit.

Whenever Hero is on the weaker end of the field he should be sizing up, trying to get into flips and give luck a chance. Hero isn't going to do well in a smaller bet grind where the luck evens out and the better players skills end up winning the prize.
 

Moxie Mike

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Hero is out of position. He has a top tier hand that is hard to play post flop, more so out of position. Hero's stack size is awkard.

These are the reasons why Hero's relative skill matters.
Thanks for the response.

This is why I found your remarks intriguing. From my perspective (as someone who considers himself to be an above average (winning) player), what do good players do? They minimize exposure in marginal situations and they maximize gains when they have a strong hand.

To that point, poker is a game of information. To flat from the SB here in the interest of playing fit-or-fold poker is a deliberate decision to proceed with minimal information - and OOP with an awkward stack as you've noted. Yes flatting minimizes exposure, but you also have no idea where you stand, and could very well end up getting it in very badly on a 'safe' flop. Flops that come A-Q-7 are easy to fold to if someone bets - but 6-6-2 flops? Not so much.

This is why I advocated a 3-bet preflop. Better to have to fold to a 4-bet jam then foolishly get it in on what we perceive to be safe flop.
 

Eriks

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Thanks for the response.

This is why I found your remarks intriguing. From my perspective (as someone who considers himself to be an above average (winning) player), what do good players do? They minimize exposure in marginal situations and they maximize gains when they have a strong hand.

To that point, poker is a game of information. To flat from the SB here in the interest of playing fit-or-fold poker is a deliberate decision to proceed with minimal information - and OOP with an awkward stack as you've noted. Yes flatting minimizes exposure, but you also have no idea where you stand, and could very well end up getting it in very badly on a 'safe' flop. Flops that come A-Q-7 are easy to fold to if someone bets - but 6-6-2 flops? Not so much.

This is why I advocated a 3-bet preflop. Better to have to fold to a 4-bet jam then foolishly get it in on what we perceive to be safe flop.

I would be more inclined to say that good players navigate well in any situation and as such are able to maximize gain whenever/wherever they find a profitable situation (or minimize loss if the opposite applies).

Of course, in a tournament situation with shallow stacks where the maneuvering room may not be that great, keeping it simple could be the prudent move.

By only calling as oppose to 3-betting we do give up information, but we also keep the pot small and villain’s range wide (we don’t have to go broke on a 662-flop just because we hold an overpair).

Having said that, I would have prefered to 3-bet or shove pf in hero’s shoes as I don’t consider myself good enough to navigate well post in these situations :)
 

Legend5555

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How much more profitable could it be to call pre vs jamming pre. Going potentially 4 ways from the SB with TT seems like a very hard spot to be very profitable.

Jamming pre is immediately profitable for a decent amount of chips even if we assume we only get called when beaten (there are only 1.8% combos of hands that beat us). Even if we assume there are 2 potential people that could call (BB or CO). Button almost certainly doesn't have a hand to call a shove.

The % we get called by only a better hand from potentially at least 1 of 2 people is only 3.58%. So 96.42% of the time we just profit 3920. And 3.58% of the time we get into a 4 to 1 situation. This adds up to a hugely profitable situation.
 

Moxie Mike

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I would be more inclined to say that good players navigate well in any situation and as such are able to maximize gain whenever/wherever they find a profitable situation (or minimize loss if the opposite applies).

Of course, in a tournament situation with shallow stacks where the maneuvering room may not be that great, keeping it simple could be the prudent move.

By only calling as oppose to 3-betting we do give up information, but we also keep the pot small and villain’s range wide (we don’t have to go broke on a 662-flop just because we hold an overpair).

By continuing at in this hand, HERO is already committing a decent chunk of his stack, and will certainly face aggression on a later street. HERO has to be of the mind that more of and possibly all of his chips are potentially going in the middle at some point, since the pot is already at 6k and there are 3 opponents.

I agree Jamming pre is probably the lowest risk/highest immediate EV play available. And chipping up a little with no confrontation is a fine result.

Of course, in a tournament situation with shallow stacks where the maneuvering room may not be that great, keeping it simple could be the prudent move.

This is where I was confused. This is a situation where it's going to be very difficult to get away from 10-10 on an all undercard flop. HERO is going to be happy to get it in and if he's beat he's beat. You're just not going to find a better spot to stick it in, especially when the blinds increase every 5 mins.

The case I think you can make for calling - and no one has said this yet - but it's a minimal investment that can be mostly recovered on the next hand or two by stealing the blinds. But that strategy implies that the only merit to calling is to set-mine - and set mining at this stage of the tournament usually isn't profitable.
 

Frogzilla

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Super standard check on the flop. This is a board texture we can check raise a lot on, so I’d be planning on the good ole check-jam.
 

Beakertwang

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My plan was to check-jam the flop, figuring one of the three behind me would put out a bet. Unfortunately, everyone could see my cards, and no one bet.

Pot 6.420

Turn is :7s:

Action?
 

Frogzilla

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Probably just check... you can probably get some value if anyone holds 87, 76, but it sucks so much to get raised on this turn and we are 4 ways.

Being OOP really handcuffs you, you’re forced to get way less value than you can IP, and it doesn’t mean flop was misplayed.
 
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