My standard cbet as the preflop aggressor in 3 bet pots is 1/3 - 1/2 pot. Multiway I'm going to lean on the smaller size. I agree with the feedback that I am the only uncapped player and have AA in range and ahead of any Ax that called. I do think that JJ- is the primary calling range for the field and am wary of sets. So while I want to get worse hands to call here and maybe deny equity to a low PP that has not connected (e.g. 44, 55, 77), I want to go a little smaller than 1/3 as its multiway and makes the sizing facing a raise smaller than going 1/2 pot and getting raised, so more of an ability to call a raise given stack depth if I go smaller. I am not thinking about jamming as in this pool 66 and 88 are definitely in both V's ranges and I am trying to stop jamming into the nuts. If I'm raised I will have a difficult decision - could be raised as a bluff so if the raise is small I can call once and see what the turn brings.
@AR_poker and
@Legend5555 I like your analysis and agree - I'm never checking here given how hard this hits my range and calling facing a single raise.
Hero bets $2.59. BN calls and HJ folds. Turn is the 9s. Hero?
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This is also why I liked sizing up to half-pot on the flop so we wouldn't be in this kind of 2:1 SPR turn spot where any amount we bet gives villain an easy shove spot. I'm definitely check-evaluating, pretty split between check-calling and check-shoving. This card hits villain's range more than ours, and I don't know how many bets we want to have here. If BTN bets tiny then I might just flat, but facing a half-pot or more bet from villain I think we're best served by shoving and denying equity to his combo draws, pair plus draws, and put his stubborn Ax in a tough spot. Unblocking spades is nice I guess, but I wouldn't expect villain to float the flop with that many unpaired flush draws (maybe some of the suited broadway spades hands float in a position to a 1/3 pot bet and hope to turn backdoor equity [and they'd prefer to have the Ks to have the backdoor NFD], but that's ambitious). I actually kind of dig that play—when we don't have an A or a set, bet flop, and check turn, villain will be able to take it away a bunch. From an equity standpoint it's *very* nice that the BDFD matches the A, meaning he doesn't have any top pair-plus-nut-flush-draws that, though we're ahead, have lots of equity, or Aces-up-two-pair-plus-nut-flush-draws that we're basically dead to.
Trying to think more through what we're behind. He's probably got 99, 88, 66 in full (not a huge reason for him to raise his sets on the flop with a mostly dry board, the stack depths make it easy to get all the money in on the turn or river, and he wants to let us keep firing with our bluffs). Expecting an anonymous BTN to flat the preflop 3bet some of the time (correctly or incorrectly) and wind up on this turn with Ah9h, Ah8h, Ad8d, 9h8h, Ad6d. Let's give him 2.5 of those combos to hedge. I think 9d8d should fold flop with no backdoor. So, what do we beat? 8s7s and 7s6s, but those have slam-dunk call-offs if they're putting us on AK/AQ since we're basically flipping, and we're not sad if those hands fold their equity. Maybe Ts8s, though plenty of BTNs will just fold that facing the 3bet pre. 9c7c, 9h7h, a little better for us than their combo draw cousins. All suited broadway AhXh and AdXd, though some of those will mix a 4bet. All eight combos of AQ, though some of those will mix a 4bet. QQ - TT at some frequency, maybe 100% depending on villain's comfort 4betting. So, that's 11.5 combos we're behind, 2 combos we're racing with, 2 combos that are drawing but we're doing a little better against, 6 combos of top pair we're beating, 2 combos of top pair we're chopping with, and 18 combos of broadway pocket pairs that are drawing very thin. Villain *might* bluff Th9h and Th9c that floated the flop in position with backdoors, but they also turned showdown value and can just check behind.
All told, I'm probably check-calling and praying for a blank river. The nice thing about a check-call line is that BTN could go for thin value with his Ax on the river targeting your KK-TT or your AJ/AT/suited wheel aces with his AQ. I hate having to turn our third/fourth strongest hand in range into a bluffcatcher (we will have 99 and 88 sometimes through this line, for sure), but c'est la vie. I love the spirit of a check-jam, but I think it's an overplay, and the main hands to deny equity to have pretty easy decisions (8s7s and 7s6s call; 9c7c and 9h7h probably fold). Sure, we can maybe stack villain's AQ or AJ, but those might also find tight folds. I think the target is just too narrow.