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Is a recession coming? Sell stocks? (1 Viewer)

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I get excited during market downturns. Im holding the line as well for now. I had rebalanced in Jan and had move a good portion to cash. So happy and lucky I did.

Where we were with the market sentiment at its peak, I think the swing down could be hard. Going to be good opportunities coming.
 
RoyalBluff said:
I always love visiting Taiwan for business. Friendly folks, great food, and felt fairly safe. I’m glad you guys haven’t been hit hard by the virus. Last I heard Eva Air was canceling flights.
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Which parts of Taiwan did you visit?
 
One person's recession is another person's market correction.
 
I just tried to log in to Vanguard and the site is down - too many people panicking!

I'm looking for a nice spot to re-balance, maybe in a few weeks. Also, rushing to get my tax return in so I can plow my refund back into the market and we should get our bonuses in March so more cash to play with!
 
Honestly the market boys were looking for a catalyst to cash out on these over inflated stocks and Corona Virus is just an excuse. Pretty much the entire years worth of earnings have already been priced into stocks in the first 2 months of the year. That's never a good sign historically and really points to a bubble. I rode the wave till February 5th then I got out of equities. The S&P was at 3334. I might swing back in today depending on how much blood letting there is. The market will go back up, but it will be stale for a while. This year most likely won't be another 30% return year. I missed the absolute peak of the market which was 3386 I believe but that's a small price to pay to be missing this free fall. If you're still in, you have to ride it at this point. To those that saw the bubble forming and got out like I did just time your entry to minimize riding the downslide. Could possibly even wait for an upturn before coming back in.
 
Marhault said:
Honestly the market boys were looking for a catalyst to cash out on these over inflated stocks and Corona Virus is just an excuse. Pretty much the entire years worth of earnings have already been priced into stocks in the first 2 months of the year. That's never a good sign historically and really points to a bubble. I rode the wave till February 5th then I got out of equities. The S&P was at 3334. I might swing back in today depending on how much blood letting there is. The market will go back up, but it will be stale for a while. This year most likely won't be another 30% return year. I missed the absolute peak of the market which was 3386 I believe but that's a small price to pay to be missing this free fall. If you're still in, you have to ride it at this point. To those that saw the bubble forming and got out like I did just time your entry to minimize riding the downslide. Could possibly even wait for an upturn before coming back in.
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Congratulations on timing the market somewhat correctly. I figured a correction was coming but I also thought it was coming a couple years ago. The only thing I know now after being through two past downturns is that the bounce back is rather quick and missing those has more of an impact than getting out at the peak. Bummed I didn’t get out, but my next paycheck will be like I bought the market at whatever year ago prices, that doesn’t sound too bad to me.
 
The market has been going gangbusters. It’s been awesome! Any kind of market fluctuates. In this case it just happened to drop like a rock! It’ll recover. I’m not panicked. All depends on your time horizon. I like buying low rather than high! Of course, if you’re closer to retirement, risk (equities) should be paired down accordingly.
 
Not every sector of the market was equally overpriced. Plenty of companies that had average p/e, solid earnings and dividends. Other companies had sky high p/e - or none if they made no money. Will be interesting to see where the money goes when it comes back into the market. I suspect in a couple months, once he files, there will be an article about Buffet taking a major stake in something/s. We shall see!
 
Picked up shares for the cruise lines, airlines, and Disney today. Near 3 to 5 year lows. I've got time.....
 
One Eyed Dollar said:
How much of the Disney drop was due to the Call of the Wild movie? Man that looks bad.
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Not as much as it will increase over the next few years due to Disney Plus. I like this particular stock a lot.
 
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I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet.

I think the mishandling of COVID19 that’s inevitable will make the markets drop further. But I’m not so sure of this that I would sell expecting to buy back lower.

I will definitely be buying some airline stocks in a little while after the pummeling theyhave received.
 
Darson said:
I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet.

I think the mishandling of COVID19 that’s inevitable will make the markets drop further. But I’m not so sure of this that I would sell expecting to buy back lower.

I will definitely be buying some airline stocks in a little while after the pummeling theyhave received.
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I've tried to time the 'bottom' before and missed. There was enough drop off in the last two weeks that i will be more than happy to recoup 30%-40% in two years time. I also bought some of my existing stocks to lower my cost basis. Whenever GE decides to turn around...........
 
Darson said:
I think the mishandling of COVID19 that’s inevitable...
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Please elaborate on the above statement, particularly the mishandling and inevitable parts. Those are big assumptions. Curious on the rationale.
 
The last couple of weeks have been splendid for nimble traders.

The first couple of drops, you would have bought the drop and then got hammered as the market fell further. This is an experience that would be educational - you shouldn't put all your speculation money on the line at once. You also should have a plan for what to do if the market keeps dropping. Do you let each traunch stand on its own? Do you use some sort of stop loss? Do you use derivatives instead? < if I am day trading, I use options and clean up my mistakes in days not weeks or months. >

If you survived the first few days of the correction, or waited till Friday last week, the last five days have been pure gold. down / up / down / up / down 500 - 1,000+ Dow Jones points each day. Just pure market plays might have made 20+%. If you were trading options or derivatives, your gains could have been massive. Truly once in a lifetime market moves.

What a thrill! You could easily have made enough money to pay for a lifetime of chipping without ever selling a set. -=- DrStrange

PS Let's be clear, this is little better than pure gambling. Speculate with money you can afford to lose. There is a significant risk of losses. But the last week seemed like playing $100 / $500 chips on a craps table and getting a shooter who just doesn't crap out.
 
BNM said:
Please elaborate on the above statement, particularly the mishandling and inevitable parts. Those are big assumptions. Curious on the rationale.
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Some information:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/singapore-response-contained-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

We just had 5 cases in the Houston area announced yesterday, all coming from the same overseas trip. Interestingly, one of the infected was from Rice University and Rice themselves instituted a proactive management plan which has limited the potential exposure among its faculty and students. Note that this is an academic institution who are being proactive, not based on any statutory requirements.

Last week we were busy dropping interest rates rather than ramping up our testing capability.
 
Interesting article, thanks for sharing that. Thinking about this more, I just don’t understand how one countries seeming success supports the belief that other countries will inevitably fail to contain it. There are currently 164 cases in the US, vice the 86 in Singapore. The massive population disparity makes the occurrence rate much higher in Singapore. This seems to indicate an effective mitigation plan in the US. Admittedly, that’s a bit surprising.

Curious on other thoughts.
 
BNM said:
Interesting article, thanks for sharing that. Thinking about this more, I just don’t understand how one countries seeming success supports the belief that other countries will inevitably fail to contain it. There are currently 164 cases in the US, vice the 86 in Singapore. The massive population disparity makes the occurrence rate much higher in Singapore. This seems to indicate an effective mitigation plan in the US. Admittedly, that’s a bit surprising.

Curious on other thoughts.
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I'm not for advocating a Singapore style response in the US, that simply wouldn't work and would cost too much but Singapore was prepared - the US is not.

Just my thoughts but the more this progresses, the more I see signs of the wrong prioritization. For example, just checking the news now and we have the following relevant headlines:
White House is considering tax relief for airline, travel, and cruise industries hurt by coronavirus
‘America should stay at work,’ despite coronavirus, Larry Kudlow says
No new coronavirus cases reported in China's Hubei province in 24 hours, excluding Wuhan
Pence Says Administration Making ‘Steady Progress’ On Coronavirus Testing
Trump's Gut Collides With Science On Coronavirus Messaging

If we are to have any hope of heading this off, we should be testing a lot of people ASAP. Anyone who has potentially been exposed so that they can be contained. Instead we're considering tax cuts.
 
Interesting perspectives. Again, thanks for sharing the link.
 
Bump................. woof.

The cruise stocks continue to plummet. I was considering picking up some NCL/CCL/RCL at the end of last week, figuring they were seriously discounted.

Not discounted enough, given that they are all tanking an additional 20%-25% on the day today. I guarantee there are lots of unqualified people out there doing day trading of individual stocks, thinking they're buying low on dips, that are losing their shirt. I messed around with very basic and limited day trading a few years ago when I had first gotten into the market, and I learned that lesson pretty quick. Luckily I got away cheap and haven't been tempted since.
 
Bought a little today. I'm sitting around 50% invested.
Missed a lot of the last 10 years, so I want to buy on the way down. I have trouble buying on the way up.
I'm 37, and have 20 years before retirement.
 

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