Stufflymcstuff
Flush
Overall he thinks jacks takes this exact line 10% per combo dealt, ATss 10% also but then waffles on computing the likelihood of AKss taking the line in full.
funny thing is earlier says in the podcast that he thinks aces up is probably the weaker of the hands he expects to snap call the River but then forgets to discount for this.
his earlier estimate was that AKss gets to the River 50% of the time per combo (90% 3bet pre and calls about half on the flop), and I think to say that AKss snap calls the River even half the time is unrealistic. But let’s say it was.
Using his estimates that makes 1x.5x0.5 = 0.25 combos of AKss vs the 3x0.1 = 0.3 combos of JJ.
so already using his estimates JJ is more likely than AKss and a lot more likely if you modify estimates of him snap calling rider with AK to something more conservative/realistic.
he also doesn’t rule out A7s or A5s - he just doesn’t quantify them because they probability clearly falls off significantly and he’s just trying to point out that AKs is the most likely hand (it isn’t).
And he doesn’t give any consideration that the person is faking when he says he would have folded to 175 (which is not common but not unheard of). that doesn’t mean QQ or 77 will be more weighty than the 0.25ish combos of AKss but they all add up. As do other stupidly played hands like QJ or other Ax ss hands.
funny thing is earlier says in the podcast that he thinks aces up is probably the weaker of the hands he expects to snap call the River but then forgets to discount for this.
his earlier estimate was that AKss gets to the River 50% of the time per combo (90% 3bet pre and calls about half on the flop), and I think to say that AKss snap calls the River even half the time is unrealistic. But let’s say it was.
Using his estimates that makes 1x.5x0.5 = 0.25 combos of AKss vs the 3x0.1 = 0.3 combos of JJ.
so already using his estimates JJ is more likely than AKss and a lot more likely if you modify estimates of him snap calling rider with AK to something more conservative/realistic.
he also doesn’t rule out A7s or A5s - he just doesn’t quantify them because they probability clearly falls off significantly and he’s just trying to point out that AKs is the most likely hand (it isn’t).
And he doesn’t give any consideration that the person is faking when he says he would have folded to 175 (which is not common but not unheard of). that doesn’t mean QQ or 77 will be more weighty than the 0.25ish combos of AKss but they all add up. As do other stupidly played hands like QJ or other Ax ss hands.
