Hand reading at 1/2 NLHE 400+bb deep (1 Viewer)

Legend5555

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Heard this interesting hand from Bart Hanson's podcast. The action leads to a very narrow hand reading and I thought it would be fun to see what others think of it. If you've heard this hand, please don't chime in.

Live 1/2 NLHE game.

HERO is UTG+1 with :ah::ad: and sitting on $1100.

VILLAIN is in the BB with $950.

UTG plays a small role in the hand, but if only on $50.

UTG raises to $10.

HERO flats since UTG is so short, looking for an isolation behind so he can back raise.

VILLAIN in BB 3 bets to $40.
UTG calls leaving $10 behind (#livepoker).
HERO back raises to $120.
VILLAIN calls.
UTG calls.

Pot: $290
Eff stack: $830
Flop: :qs::7h::4d:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO?
 

JustinInMN

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Pretty dry board, my instinct is to bet about half pot here to collect from the Qx and KK hands.

Though I can see a good argument for checking here. It is really tough to get value and the risk of being outdrawn is pretty low. Checking a medium strong hand here might provide some balance in a larger strategy too.

So I can see either choice here.
 

AR_poker

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4bet pot, dry flop, mostly range-advantaged for 4bettor/IP. I don't think we have any 77 or 44, where BB maybe has those depending on the player, but we've got all the other strongest hands.

Betting 25% pot - 33% pot, looking to get called at least twice by KK, Qx. Expecting some percentage of call flop/fold turn from AsXs and JJ - 88 when unimproved or the board worsens for them. I like the $80 bet from @skylines. The SPR of just under 3:1 means it's gonna be very easy to get all the money in moving forward if we want to, pending action from BB and runouts.

The board texture, the low SPR, and the fact that we don't need to protect against much also means checking back IP should be fine, too, especially if you're back-raise 4betting wide enough to want some less strong checkbacks here. But I think flop is our best chance to get one street of value in case an overcard to villain's holding rolls off on the turn, and it's not the worst to make someone pay to hit their two-outer.
 

Legend5555

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Live 1/2 NLHE game.

HERO is UTG+1 with :ah::ad: and sitting on $1100.

VILLAIN is in the BB with $950.

UTG plays a small role in the hand, but if only on $50.

UTG raises to $10.

HERO flats since UTG is so short, looking for an isolation behind so he can back raise.

VILLAIN in BB 3 bets to $40.
UTG calls leaving $10 behind (#livepoker).
HERO back raises to $120.
VILLAIN calls.
UTG calls.

Pot: $290
Eff stack: $830
Flop: :qs::7h::4d:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets $175.

This bet is obviously too large given the likely 4 bets ranges and board texture.

Here is where the hand goes off the rails. VILLAIN thinks the bet is $75 and tosses out the $75 to call. He is corrected on the amount and then VILLAIN says he would fold if it was $175. Floor is called and rules the $75 must stay in the pot, and VILLAIN has option to fold or complete the call.

VILLAIN completes to $175.

Pot: $640
Eff stack: $655
Turn: :qs::7h::4d::js:

VILLAIN checks.

HERO?
 

Bill_Man618

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Check. I've seen this one before where they feign weakness, but they are strong. I think you should check back here and bet small if checked to on river and fold to a raise. I think V has QQ, QJ, KK, or maybe JJ.
 

Grandmasturkey

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Possible also for villain to also have AK, also lower Ax of spades (depending on their style of play) OR if they are crazy like some people we know ahem @Chawks45 56 of spades...though Q and J of spades on the board significantly reduces the amount of combos of spade draws villain can have.
 

JustinInMN

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Check. I've seen this one before where they feign weakness, but they are strong. I think you should check back here and bet small if checked to on river and fold to a raise. I think V has QQ, QJ, KK, or maybe JJ
Seems the value range is limited to hands that beat AA. Why can villain have QJ, but not KQ or AQ? Also how likely is villain raising QJs (let alone QJo) from the big blind knowing a player is likely getting all in.

I don't think this turn card changes much. And since the flop bet was so big, I don't think we are often looking at spades (especially given the :qs: is on board), maybe exactly :as: :ks: can call for 75 and then get forced into completing.

Otherwise, I think we really have villain limited to KQ, AQ, and maybe QQ if we assume villain isn't 4- betting QQ pre against a back raise.

Now if I were to build a case for checking, it's that anything villain may have that isn't a queen will probably fold anyway and we can induce a bluff on the river knowing most rivers are by far safe, even spades most likely.

But I think I go for another street of value here. I just hate hero's sizing on the flop. He probably would have been better off going for just 75. I was thinking 100-120 or so at the most.
 

Legend5555

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Seems the value range is limited to hands that beat AA. Why can villain have QJ, but not KQ or AQ? Also how likely is villain raising QJs (let alone QJo) from the big blind knowing a player is likely getting all in.

I don't think this turn card changes much. And since the flop bet was so big, I don't think we are often looking at spades (especially given the :qs: is on board), maybe exactly :as: :ks: can call for 75 and then get forced into completing.

Otherwise, I think we really have villain limited to KQ, AQ, and maybe QQ if we assume villain isn't 4- betting QQ pre against a back raise.

Now if I were to build a case for checking, it's that anything villain may have that isn't a queen will probably fold anyway and we can induce a bluff on the river knowing most rivers are by far safe, even spades most likely.

But I think I go for another street of value here. I just hate hero's sizing on the flop. He probably would have been better off going for just 75. I was thinking 100-120 or so at the most.
Keep in mind, he called thinking he was only calling $75.
 

Anthony Martino

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I'm betting $125 on the flop.

As played, we have a PSB left on the turn which brought in a whole host of potential draws.

Stated previously, villain could be feigning the old "oh, I thought it was $75.......well, I guess I call" line holding top set here. Villains raise could've been to isolate the shorty UTG, so they don't HAVE to be super strong holding QQ or JJ here.

So now it's a matter of are we way ahead or way behind on the turn? I lean towards a check-behind, mostly because we have the positional edge in this pot going to the river. Villain must act first and we'll get to decide from there.

If we just rip all-in on the turn we're obviously paying off our opponent if they did happen to hit a set on us, and folding out any bluffs he might bet on the river. I'm not a big fan of letting our opponent draw for free given all the potential draws that have materialized, but given what villains range should be, I think we're ok.

So bet $125 on the flop and as played check behind on the turn so we can use our positional advantage to get additional info on the river.
 

dp68094

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I think QQ is out given that he legitimately made the $75 call (@Legend5555 ) JJ or QJ or the spade draw might all be enough to warrant the $75 and then "fk-it i'm in" call. Hand is getting wonky at this point, I'll take the free card...
 

Eloe2000

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Smells like either a :as::ks: or:jh::jd: situation at this point given the setup and your commentary, but without all of that if I was in the hand I am probably betting $300-400.
 

Legend5555

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Live 1/2 NLHE game.

HERO is UTG+1 with :ah::ad: and sitting on $1100.

VILLAIN is in the BB with $950.

UTG plays a small role in the hand, but if only on $50.

UTG raises to $10.

HERO flats since UTG is so short, looking for an isolation behind so he can back raise.

VILLAIN in BB 3 bets to $40.
UTG calls leaving $10 behind (#livepoker).
HERO back raises to $120.
VILLAIN calls.
UTG calls.

Pot: $290
Eff stack: $830
Flop: :qs::7h::4d:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets $175.

This bet is obviously too large given the likely 4 bets ranges and board texture.

Here is where the hand goes off the rails. VILLAIN thinks the bet is $75 and tosses out the $75 to call. He is corrected on the amount and then VILLAIN says he would fold if it was $175. Floor is called and rules the $75 must stay in the pot, and VILLAIN has option to fold or complete the call.

VILLAIN completes to $175.

Pot: $640
Eff stack: $655
Turn: :qs::7h::4d::js:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets 225.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $1090
Eff stack $430
River: :qs: :7h::4d::js::ac:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO jams.
VILLAIN calls and shows?
 

skylines

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K10s (any but clubs) seems possible. JJ. Maybe AK spades but that’s gonna fold the river sometimes I’d think.
 

Grandmasturkey

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AK spades
KT of spades would literally be shocking
QQ JJ and 77 get it all in on the turn I belize


Edit: A4 of spades also possible for rivered two pair with spade draw on the turn. But that is a bold play flatting a four bet out of position preflop with A4s...but perhaps heros limp reraise (though that usually screams aces kings or ace king) sucked villain in?
 
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Legend5555

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So, it's very unlikely villain has 44, 77, any of the 2 pair combos given the preflop 3 bet and call of the 4 bet. While people at 1/2 aren't the best, they don't tend to 3 bet except for value.

If we assume villains "fold" comment is genuine, then villain can't have KQ, AQ, QQ, or KK. And generally, most spots like this are genuine. 98% of the time people aren't going this far to angle.

Villain can sometimes have JJ, but given there was only 400 behind into a 1100 pot, they would jam turn the vast majority of the time.

HERO has red AA, Ac came on the river. So VILLAIN almost certainly had AsKs and some occasional JJ.

VILLAIN does indeed end up having AsKs. Was going to fold to the large flop bet, but would call the small one with overs and back door nut draws.
 

Grandmasturkey

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So, it's very unlikely villain has 44, 77, any of the 2 pair combos given the preflop 3 bet and call of the 4 bet. While people at 1/2 aren't the best, they don't tend to 3 bet except for value.

If we assume villains "fold" comment is genuine, then villain can't have KQ, AQ, QQ, or KK. And generally, most spots like this are genuine. 98% of the time people aren't going this far to angle.

Villain can sometimes have JJ, but given there was only 400 behind into a 1100 pot, they would jam turn the vast majority of the time.

HERO has red AA, Ac came on the river. So VILLAIN almost certainly had AsKs and some occasional JJ.

VILLAIN does indeed end up having AsKs. Was going to fold to the large flop bet, but would call the small one with overs and back door nut draws.
This is fun! Are these from CLP website?
 

Moxie Mike

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I put the Villain on AK. Suits are irrelevant.

On the flop he plans to call the $75 (assuming that's what he really thought the bet was and wasn't angling) getting a decent price to peel a turn card with the halfway decent chance AK is the best hand or maybe tied for the best hand. But he wanted to pull the $75 back and fold once he realized the actual bet size. But he decides to call anyway, given the size of the pot compared to the other $100 he has to put in.

I haven't read any other responses but one interesting note is that HERO will have to show his hand given the all in player. Whether this occurs to the Villain in unknown but might be a factor in decision making.

On the turn he picks up a broadway draw along with the two overs. Facing a call of $225 to win $865, he's getting nearly 4:1 to peel the river thinking he has as many as 10 outs if he's behind.

If he has AK he's not folding the river for the rest of his stack.

I don't think a set would play the hand this passively on the flop or turn, and I don't think there's really any other hands that make sense given the preflop action. QJ is just not strong enough to play a 4 bet pot multiway OOP.
 

Legend5555

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I put the Villain on AK. Suits are irrelevant.

On the flop he plans to call the $75 (assuming that's what he really thought the bet was and wasn't angling) getting a decent price to peel a turn card with the halfway decent chance AK is the best hand or maybe tied for the best hand. But he wanted to pull the $75 back and fold once he realized the actual bet size. But he decides to call anyway, given the size of the pot compared to the other $100 he has to put in.

I haven't read any other responses but one interesting note is that HERO will have to show his hand given the all in player. Whether this occurs to the Villain in unknown but might be a factor in decision making.

On the turn he picks up a broadway draw along with the two overs. Facing a call of $225 to win $865, he's getting nearly 4:1 to peel the river thinking he has as many as 10 outs if he's behind.

If he has AK he's not folding the river for the rest of his stack.

I don't think a set would play the hand this passively on the flop or turn, and I don't think there's really any other hands that make sense given the preflop action. QJ is just not strong enough to play a 4 bet pot multiway OOP.
Suits are far from irrelevant. In fact, the whole point of the exercise is that you can actually almost narrow down the exact hand based on the suits in play.

While I don't disagree that even AKo might call for $75 on flop, I don't think it's a given. And assuming AKo calls the turn with overs and a gutter is optimistic since it's a 4 bet pot. All the outs are CERTAINLY not live. Hero would have to have limp 4 bet 99 for all outs to be live. Any pair TT up or AJ+ is blocking outs or is tied with AK. And AQ and JJ-AA has AK crushed here. So calling turn with AKo for really only 4 outs, only 3 of which are clean is just bad.
 
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they can also have hands like A4ss, A7ss and KTss. Those are all possibly going to fold to 175 but call 75, are priced in on turn and then will snap call on the River.

Sure these should all be folds pre, but that doesn’t mean they will.

The way this “should” play out given action is that he’ll be calling with AQ / trapped sets / slow played AA and folding KK on the River, where AKss is most definitely not a snap call and doesn’t always get to the River like this because it open shoves or check/shoves the turn with some frequency.
 
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