Not if he likes to bluff the river. Very player dependent.
Then you'd likely get called only by better and you cancel out all of his bluffs.
No, he bets more hands that we beat (like his bluffs) than he calls with
If the plan is too check call. Shouldn't we just lead out?
Check/fold. But then remember I wasn't in the hand to this point anyhow....lol
I didn't make this clear, but 55 and QQ are really low on the totem pole of hands villain could have here, though they are possible. JJ is even less likely. Though, against a sticky villain it's possible. I'd expect both sets to raise back at some point. Though given the board texture and stack sizes, 55 maybe should be just calling down.Missed this post entirely somehow.
Not surprising to see giant opens in "live" games, especially when stacks are very deep. IP this is a good candidate to 3bet occasionally for balance. There is a ton of dead money out there to win. But seeing as we are OOP and closing the action getting 5 to 1 with what will be an SPR of like 15, pretty slam dunk call.
Balancing a donk range is just hard in general. So its not very wrong to just never do it. And given that the raiser is next to act, easy check. If raiser checks then anyone that acts after him is giving away a lot of info about their hand, as they weren't making an auto check to the raiser. If villain bets, it REALLY defines his hand a lot, as leading here into 5 people is not something he can do on this board that lightly.
After villain bets on flop, he is saying he has an overpair, nut draw, or a set. And honestly, betting an overpair here is probably wrong. This board his calling hands so hard that being something like AA when OOP on the field can easily be lighting money on fire generally. Though in this game, who knows.
Regardless, we block 2 sets, villain is saying they have a strong hand, and we have top 2. Pretty mandatory raise. I'd want to size such that I get bet 3/4 pot turn and then 3/4 or less on river. So like 125-140 total on flop.
Note that this deep, if there was one or more calls in the field, I don't think raising is a great idea. It's unlikely a raise gets people off hands on this board. It's actually a pretty good idea in that instance to just call and hope we get a blank on turn so our equity increases before we just pile money in.
Pretty safe card. Bet around 2/3 to set up a less than pot sized river jam.
So now there are 2 over pairs that got there, plus Axhh got there, and 9T got there. I'm not sure what hands other than AA or KK get to the river here that we beat. And I don't see AA or KK calling a jam at this point. We lose to 88, 77, 55, T9s, ATh+, JJ, QQ. The pot is also so large that I'm not sure villain will fold any of them even with the hearts getting there.
Combos we beat: 12
Combos we lose to: 18
Seeing as we can't really get value from worse given the runout, and our best scenario by jamming is getting 55 to fold. I feel like this is a check fold on the river. Jamming 78 at this point is really just turning our hand into a bluff. And our opponent would have to be way out there to have a bluff on the river at this point. If he's that good kudos to him.
We have better hands here than 78 by the river as well. We can have all the flopped sets, 9T, Axh, and even 64s or 69s and played it this way given the board and all the folds on the flop. We aren't even at the top of our range here.
But seeing as we are OOP and closing the action getting 5 to 1 with what will be an SPR of like 15, pretty slam dunk call.
There are also just a lot of direct implied odds. And 78s has a lot of playability. We are highly multiway, which does suck. But we have great relative position since the PFR acts right after us.This analysis is comprehensive and spot on... So of course I want to quibble with the one sentence I kind of disagree with.
A leak I’ve been trying to plug in my own game is using pot odds like 5:1 for multiway hands out of position. This seems very tempting and I often convince myself to come up.
Getting 5:1 odds is great against 1-2 players; six-way to the flop, not so much, I think.
87s will pretty much need to make two pair or better to win the hand against five opponents.
The odds of making two pair, trips, a straight or flush by the river are less than 5:1, by my amateur calculation. Not a lot less, but less. And you are probably going to spend a lot more to hang on to the river to realize that equity.
Plus, sometimes your two pair or trips or straight or flush will *still* be no good, putting you in a reverse implied odds situation (if I’m using the term correctly).
Now: Maybe the high SPR makes up for some of that—a few of the times you win, you may win really big. But that requires that one or more of the opponents are willing to pay you off with worse.
Happy to be corrected on any of the above!
And the only reason I think Hero can play the hand the way he did is because of all the flop folds.
A check is weak, but it has a few benefits. I don’t want to play anymore!
Hey... wait a minute...I thought you didn't want to play anymore past the flop, and now you're calling all in on the river.Call, because I do not like money!
Hero bets $200 and is once again called without any hesitation from Caveman.
Pot is now $710~
river is the
Final board is
Tough decision that is very player dependent.... in a vacuum, I probably would fold, given the range of hands that beat us at this point. But if I knew the player is capable of betting/calling flop & turn and capable of a big river bluff, I might find a call in this spot.Caveman uses almost the entire 30 seconds of time we have to act. Which from past experience always means he is betting big, which he does. He goes ALL-IN! (Around $625)
action is back to Hero. Do we call the All-in or fold?
We are almost to the end of this hand!
Hero agrees that checking makes the most sense for all the reasons given and does so.
Caveman uses almost the entire 30 seconds of time we have to act. Which from past experience always means he is betting big, which he does. He goes ALL-IN! (Around $625)
action is back to Hero. Do we call the All-in or fold?
reasoning for decision.
Hero goes into the tanks and makes the crying call. Caveman shows for the the nut flush and wins the biggest pot of the night.
Actually I couldn't make up my mind and timed out and was folded. I felt he was on a flush draw the whole time and that if he hit he would get the double up from a hand I couldn't fold. We have a lot of history and he knew he was behind on the flop but will continue with any draw for sure that can beat what was on the flop. Even if he had 910 it beats any flopped made hand. I would have called any non Q, 5, or heart river bet as I think he would have made the same bet if he missed his draw. Is he capable of bluffing with the bare Ace high blocker, yes, but he would usually do that when he is checked to in position, not calling a check raise or betting into the field of callers on a board that favors a calling range.
I had actually thought about a turn shove as mentioned by @DrStrange but I wasn't sure I could get a call enough of the time. I do wish I would have bet bigger on the flop and turn both though. I will definitely be sizing my bets up even more vs this villain.
After the hand everyone was trying to speculate what we each had and Caveman made a comment that he thought he took the lead on the turn. Which makes me think he had AQhh, or KQhh. But he could have also been fishing for info from me about my hand.
Preflop - I see fold and call as about equal. Maybe leaning a little towards folding. Folding vs good villains, calling vs a weaker field. three-betting is a fancy play. < not a clear mistake, but it could easily turn into one.> Multiway pot and out of position makes hero's sweet looking hand turn a bit sour.
Flop - top two pair on a wet board is not as strong as it might feel. More so playing massively multiway, very deep and out of position. I am checking and looking for a reason to fold.