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Bitcoin crash coming (35 Viewers)

By any means I am not knocking the process or stating any distrust in the Beacon Chain Its kind of expensive to stake 32 eth at the moment, eth at 1k is $32000 to be a full validator. I personally would only do it as a full validator, not sure a staking pool would give out all the rewards equally. I also had the same feelings towards mining pools, many kept the discovered coins and only shared the mining rewards.
Another problem i have is that only when the mainnet becomes shard are you allowed to withdrawl your stake.

EDIT: Also i believe you can loose eth if they suspect you of malicious actions (what if your hacked, you are responsible) , going offline (power outages, internet provider goes down, etc), and failing to validate.
 
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TeamNapoli said:
By any means I am not knocking the process or stating any distrust in the Beacon Chain Its kind of expensive to stake 32 eth at the moment, eth at 1k is $32000 to be a full validator. I personally would only do it as a full validator, not sure a staking pool would give out all the rewards equally. I also had the same feelings towards mining pools, many kept the discovered coins and only shared the mining rewards.
Another problem i have is that only when the mainnet becomes shard are you allowed to withdrawl your stake.

EDIT: Also i believe you can loose eth if they suspect you of malicious actions (what if your hacked, you are responsible) , going offline (power outages, internet provider goes down, etc), and failing to validate.
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It definitely ties up your money for a while, but if you have no plans to sell it seems like a no brainier. I set it up with a few buddies, we all put in 1/3 of the stake though the price of eth doubled since we set it up.

I wonder if some of the run up is related to less liquidity in the market due to the validators
 
TeamNapoli said:
@wuffle and @nezara have you calculated your cost versus rewards?
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when you stake with Lido, you get stETH. There is a liquid pool in curve now that you can swap between stETH and ETH effectively, almost 1:1. Staking stETH in curve pool gives you around 60% APY now
Screenshot 2021-01-15 at 12.28.59 AM.png
 
The real money is made by eth going up or down. But again if you are holding it, why not make some extra money. My validator went online last night here's the earnings in about 16 hours. I think it will work out to something like 6-10% depending on how many validators we have running on our hardware.

1610651996340.png
 
i understand getting interest on the money your holding, but will the cost of electricity, hardware, hardware upkeep (you want to process as fast as possible) eat up the interest? Also your money is locked up and you cant determine when to unlock it, its up to Beacon if they will allow you to shut down your validator.
 
TeamNapoli said:
i understand getting interest on the money your holding, but will the cost of electricity, hardware, hardware upkeep (you want to process as fast as possible) eat up the interest? Also your money is locked up and you cant determine when to unlock it, its up to Beacon if they will allow you to shut down your validator.
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Money is locked up for 2 years. It's not like Bitcoin mining where you need the fastest possible thing. There are penalties if you go offline so there's more of a need for UPS'/etc. The 6-10% takes into account the total cost of ownership of the hardware. We are currently running a single validator on our gear so expect to be on the lower end of that spectrum. We are working on scraping together some more ETH to start a second validator, we think we can host up to 3 on one system. As we get more up and running the hardware overhead reduces and the rate of return should increase.
 
w
nezara said:
The real money is made by eth going up or down. But again if you are holding it, why not make some extra money. My validator went online last night here's the earnings in about 16 hours. I think it will work out to something like 6-10% depending on how many validators we have running on our hardware.

View attachment 614114
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what hardware are you using?
 
nezara said:
Money is locked up for 2 years. It's not like Bitcoin mining where you need the fastest possible thing. There are penalties if you go offline so there's more of a need for UPS'/etc. The 6-10% takes into account the total cost of ownership of the hardware. We are currently running a single validator on our gear so expect to be on the lower end of that spectrum. We are working on scraping together some more ETH to start a second validator, we think we can host up to 3 on one system. As we get more up and running the hardware overhead reduces and the rate of return should increase.
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I am interested in this. Any good youtube vids on this? I would be interested in teaming up.
 
Need some help. Can anyone here help me pay a member using paypal F&F and I send you some ETH? My Paypal is having some issues
 
liftapint said:
No other thread has ever made me feel so old (and stupid) as this thread. You people here speak in some strange language about things that make no sense to me!!
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Not really...they are purely speculating (I.e., gambling) on crypto, which explains all the flogging to “hodl” (hold) and “to the moon!” Their returns depend on pump and dump.
 
gopherblue said:
Not really...they are purely speculating (I.e., gambling) on crypto, which explains all the flogging to “hodl” (hold) and “to the moon!” Their returns depend on pump and dump.
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Money does bring out the inner monke.

That being said I appreciate the reality check of knowing that the mental edge still exists. Really couldn't have done it without you guys ❤
 
L3urntout said:
Money does bring out the inner monke.

That being said I appreciate the reality check of knowing that the mental edge still exists. Really couldn't have done it without you guys ❤
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Just so long as you acknowledge that, at best, you are speculating. Nothing wrong with it, I suppose, so long as you are willing to take on the risk. But I can't think of anyone that should make it a core component of their investment strategy, and I know folks with 8-, 9-, and 10-figure net worth's. Were fortunes made over tulips? Yes. Also, lost. I hope you are the former and not the latter.
 
gopherblue said:
Just so long as you acknowledge that, at best, you are speculating. Nothing wrong with it, I suppose, so long as you are willing to take on the risk. But I can't think of anyone that should make it a core component of their investment strategy, and I know folks with 8-, 9-, and 10-figure net worth's. Were fortunes made over tulips? Yes. Also, lost. I hope you are the former and not the latter.
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I really struggle to see the value in this statement when it could be simplified into "use risk management" other than to peddle that you don't buy into it holding value.

Risky shit gives better returns, more news at 5. Or maybe there exists value that is unappreciated but that is just unfathomable, dang we are back to square one with nothing added.

Very cool story on how "you know people" but im sure the Winklevoss twins would disagree with you, and it would seem their net worth peen is probably larger than yours.

As long as you acknowledge that you could, at worst, be wrong, I will also admit my worst case scenario, which would be debt free and up a few 100%s. I would have to say your concern is wasted on me.

Does saying "invest what you can afford to lose" give me your stamp of approval?
 
L3urntout said:
I really struggle to see the value in this statement when it could be simplified into "use risk management" other than to peddle that you don't buy into it holding value.

Risky shit gives better returns, more news at 5. Or maybe there exists value that is unappreciated but that is just unfathomable, dang we are back to square one with nothing added.

Very cool story on how "you know people" but im sure the Winklevoss twins would disagree with you, and it would seem their net worth peen is probably larger than yours.

As long as you acknowledge that you could, at worst, be wrong, I will also admit my worst case scenario, which would be debt free and up a few 100%s. I would have to say your concern is wasted on me.

Does saying "invest what you can afford to lose" give me your stamp of approval?
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Sigh. It's not a matter of a stamp of approval. Please reread my statements.

However, you've obviously convinced yourself you are right, so who am I to trample on your selection bias?

I don't know why I'm bothering to engage, but my point about knowing people was not to suggest I know better than you, but that other than some outliers, like the Winklevii, placing a significant amount of one's net worth in a super volatile speculation play is, I think we can all agree, risky. Full stop. Given that all of those "people" I know are as a result of a long career in the hedge fund world (where risk and volatility are important and well-understood), and that some of those people I know (or worked with/for) are some of the most aggressive, bullish investors you've ever heard of, I'd say it speaks volumes that they invest only small amounts (relative to their net worth) in crypto. You previously indicated you have 90-95% of your net worth invested in crypto--that's your decision, and your appetite for risk, but I think that for 99.9999999999999999999% of folks out there, that is a good way to lose one's shirt.

Yes, your weighting in crypto gives better returns, but it also can scalp you. And I never said crypto wouldn't hold (some, hell, maybe all) value, just that it is speculative and volatile, and the underpinnings are incredibly risky. Not just of the coin itself, but of the method of holding it and the transaction costs (both monetary and otherwise).

Crypto has a place in an asset allocation, but when I read nonsense like "to the moon!" and "HODL!", it betrays cheerleading, likely from those who were lucky (or, if you prefer, prescient), way back when, only a few years ago.
 
Hey, how did you get Crypto in PayPal? Doesn't seem to be available for me in the app or on the website.
 
@gopherblue I do agree that your voice always comes across as avoid this at all costs, its a pumped asset, etc etc. I do agree in that no one should be 100% into any investment including real estate. Trust me I have had no rental income for about a year from some of my renters(one example: i dont see renter A giving me a 30k check when i am finally allowed to evict him and 30k is assuming i was allowed to evict him today. The funny thing is NJ who is forcing me not to collect or aid in enforcement of our legal contract, is demanding their property taxes.

Also as time passes, more and more "established" investment houses and pay services are accepting bitcoin and other worthy alt coins.
I dont want to even get into the details of my crypto vs my 401k; but lets say i have been injecting cash into one for 27 yrs (say every check i earned since college) and one has a few injections in 7 yrs (not even including profits from my miners). Care to wager which one is more valuable?


Now I know this graph is skewed because BTC is at an ATH but its an interesting graph where one could say maybe a few percentile of my high risk sector in my portfolio should be here. Even if you think it will crash, money to be be made there also.

Now everyone has their own financial plan and comfort zone and should stay with what they are comfortable with. I dont push crypto stock real estate gold on anyone but i also dont tell them they should stay away from any of those either. As in poker; it is mostly a zero sum game, someone will loose someone will win .

And as my advisor tells me ..... past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. CYA

cover_biggest-companies-vs-bitcoin-last-decade-performance-b529.jpg
 
TeamNapoli said:
@gopherblue I do agree that your voice always comes across as avoid this at all costs, its a pumped asset, etc etc. I do agree in that no one should be 100% into any investment including real estate. Trust me I have had no rental income for about a year from some of my renters(one example: i dont see renter A giving me a 30k check when i am finally allowed to evict him and 30k is assuming i was allowed to evict him today. The funny thing is NJ who is forcing me not to collect or aid in enforcement of our legal contract, is demanding their property taxes.

Also as time passes, more and more "established" investment houses and pay services are accepting bitcoin and other worthy alt coins.
I dont want to even get into the details of my crypto vs my 401k; but lets say i have been injecting cash into one for 27 yrs (say every check i earned since college) and one has a few injections in 7 yrs (not even including profits from my miners). Care to wager which one is more valuable?


Now I know this graph is skewed because BTC is at an ATH but its an interesting graph where one could say maybe a few percentile of my high risk sector in my portfolio should be here. Even if you think it will crash, money to be be made there also.

Now everyone has their own financial plan and comfort zone and should stay with what they are comfortable with. I dont push crypto stock real estate gold on anyone but i also dont tell them they should stay away from any of those either. As in poker; it is mostly a zero sum game, someone will loose someone will win .

And as my advisor tells me ..... past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. CYA

View attachment 617888
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how my voice "always comes across as avoid this at all costs." I specifically said I think crypto has a place as part of an asset allocation. Perhaps you are referencing my other posts on investment advice? Which I stand by: prudent and steady diversification, conservatively aggressive equity-focused allocations, primarily in low cost index ETFs. After ETFs, boring blue chip growth and dividend-paying stocks, then sexier/more speculative stocks. And now, perhaps some crypto. Again, for most people. I am also consistently against investing in physical commodities, mostly due to the illiquidity, high transaction costs, and headache/cost of storage. My past advice, if you read it, is actually somewhat aggressive--I don't really think most people have a strong need for fixed income until much closer to retirement, and even then, my allocation is aggressive in equities, assuming one has the assets to justify it. I happen to think that BTC and other crypto have a bright future, and one should consider (or should have) exposure to it, but I'm not willing to wager my whole nest egg on it. Anyone who does is gambling. I don't gamble. I make investments.

When I read cheerleader after cheerleader flogging crypto, and calling the next threshold through which it is going to barrel, with no actual basis for such statements other than hope, it is clear to me that they have fallen in love with an asset class and are blinded by $$$. That never turns out well.

I have no doubt that folks here have made 7-figure (or more) fortunes in crypto. I coulda/shoulda/woulda (at least back when a buddy of mine bought a few hundred for sh!ts and giggles), but I didn't. Do I have some now? Yes. But it is a small sliver of my net worth.

By all means, buy crypto. Just don't go crazy.
 

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