Bitcoin crash coming (2 Viewers)

Lemonzest said:
I have heard that the price of alts including ETH follows what is going on with BTC which makes sense. When BTC is hot everything else in the crypto world gets hot as well. I have no interest in complete speculation in buying alt coins no one has heard of and no one uses in the hope that one of them somehow supplants BTC. There is some interesting functionality with ETH that offers smart contracts which is something unique over and above what is already available with BTC. A new up and coming crypto needs to offer some unique features not already offered within BTC or ETH to stand a chance. Otherwise the big two BTC / ETH will have something like 95%+ of the crypto market indefinitely. The remaining 5% is comparable to the penny stocks market which pretty much only exists for speculators to try and get rich quick.

I also wouldn't recommend buying anything right now. People not savvy to BTC / ETH may not realize we are close to reaching all time highs. If you buy BTC at 18k you could be waiting a long time to break even if the price goes back down to 10-12k and sits there for a year or two. On the flipside BTC could hit 100k sometime in 2021 no one knows. IMO 18-20k remains a high water mark for 2020/2021.

Something interesting to think about is that BTC was down as low as 4k/5k in March during the initial COVID scare. This kind of shows how much money in BTC is/was pure speculation. When the price of BTC starts slipping and takes a down turn it will plummet low again. That is the time to buy. New low might mean something like 10k which was an old high number lol.

Just my take on the crypto landscape right now.

Still kicking myself for selling all my BTC at around $
13,000 which seemed crazy high at that time lulz. Now I am just itching to buy again as soon as the price dips hard.
Click to expand...
Only BTC is at an ATH, if you're confident in the market a lot of opportunity for ETH and some of the other bigger player alts to run.

600-->1400 is a lot of run-up if you think ETH will hit ATH again.

that being said anyone play alts / have some low cap token to ignite money into? :D
 
Was recommended AAVE/HEGIC/UMA was probably going to go with HEGIC :) good to see similar sentiment
 
So Who is here now saying BTC is going to die and crash forever again?
Now that its on an ATH rally again with the halving cycle to perfection, who says its going to die?
I meant BTC has only died like 500 million times permanently according to the lamestream news
Now PayPal is even all in after they called it a ponzi scam years ago.

BTC and crypto is the future.
My 5500 total investment 9 some years and going is worth about 125K today
Cue the haters that still say its a ponzi.

With the current cycle, huge adoption in the past 3 years..... lets look at the past.
Previous cycle... 1k to 20K ATH.
This cycle about 5-10K depending on where you want to put the median price due to the WhuFlu flash crash....
Id say 5K to 50K next year is EASY.

Have you been stacking ETH? I have
Was 125 now 525 plus
TOO EASY

Lets come back to this post in 3 years. If anyone wants to bet BTC will be dead in 3 years and not above 25K
you are CRAZY to have not got BTC when it was $500.
CRYPTO is easy the biggest trasnsfer of wealth coming up in history. Every person should own 1BTC MINIMUM
per family member today. Because why? In the future it will be impossible.
I need to find time to go back and read all the people saying BTC was going to go to zero after it rallied.
 
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L3urntout said:
Only BTC is at an ATH, if you're confident in the market a lot of opportunity for ETH and some of the other bigger player alts to run.

600-->1400 is a lot of run-up if you think ETH will hit ATH again.

that being said anyone play alts / have some low cap token to ignite money into? :D
Click to expand...
ETH will EASILY tear past 1200 again after BTC breaks its ATH and starts its next rally like 2017.
 
Your ravings would have had more (any?) gravitas if you’d made them in, say, June. If anything, posts like this on forums like this make me less confident in an upside. I am always interested in learning more, though, so what’s your business case/investment theory behind your bullishness?
 
BNM said:
Your ravings would have had more (any?) gravitas if you’d made them in, say, June. If anything, posts like this on forums like this make me less confident in an upside. I am always interested in learning more, though, so what’s your business case/investment theory behind your bullishness?
Click to expand...
Hard disagree in that saying something in June would be different. People only care now cause of price and why would June vs Jan vs 2019 make a difference. I can only say that I've been accumulating for years to a point where most of y'all would say I'm recklessly exposed. It isn't fun to talk about something over and over when no one cares though. Everyone gets hype when it starts winning again lol, not going to bore you with how it oscillates with over the span of 3 years.

And the use case has remain unchanged. A trustless distributed ledger. Bitcoin is really nothing more than that, and imo that is enough to carry it. It quite literally fulfills its purpose by being an extremely liquid and available asset.

Ethereum is more broadly applicable in that you can either tokenize contracts and/or applications to function as fungible chunks. This is an extremely general explanation, right now mostly being used by lending/borrowing protocols but very cool stuff imo like flash loans and collateralized pools.

If you are interested in blockchains I can always point you in the direction of some very informative YouTube videos.
 
@BNM

To quote the creator here is a question

As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties: - boring grey in colour - not a good conductor of electricity - not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either - not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose and one special, magical property: - can be transported over a communications channel If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it. Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you've suggested, by people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange. (I would definitely want some) Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it. I think the traditional qualifications for money were written with the assumption that there are so many competing objects in the world that are scarce, an object with the automatic bootstrap of intrinsic value will surely win out over those without intrinsic value. But if there were nothing in the world with intrinsic value that could be used as money, only scarce but no intrinsic value, I think people would still take up something. (I'm using the word scarce here to only mean limited potential supply)

Now lets expand that to a global economy. Say you're in control of literal tens of billions of dollars, what are you investing in? Real Estate, sure, stocks of course, bonds/treasuries a portion, precious metals probably at least some, then there is underwriting debt, angel investments, VC funding, the list goes on, but at that level of scale you want exposure to pretty much everything if you're trying to preserve wealth. We are seeing that today grow to encompass cryptocurrency. There is a multi-thousand dollar premium on GBTC and hundreds on ETHE simply because those funds allow people to get exposure to BTC/ETH on their retirement accounts. Quite literally a dozens of % arbitrage opportunity if you bought GBTC and are an accredited investor who wants to maintain exposure.

Now the question becomes "what can you buy"? Currently it is use as the defacto payment system for several ecosystems. Virtual Currency (so games like Runescape, POKER :), sports betting), darknetmarkets, cryptocurrency token trading. I can use it to donate to TheWaterProject, buy various products, settle debts with others who accept it, buy motorcycles off craiglists!

Main advantages are things where there is onerous regulation stopping small-time players. Example there is a smart contract that allows users to pool funds into creating options contracts for cryptocurrency (incase you wanted to degen even more crypto exposure lol) or dexes (decentralized exchanges) that allow you to trade tokens that aren't listed on a regulated exchange, simply because the entry level for that is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment. Sure the risk for all this is pretty much uncalculatable in that if it goes bad your risk of ruin is pretty much guaranteed to be 100%, but that is the trade off of regulation no?

Been holding crypto for nearly 9 years now? Ran a trading desk for approx 4 years on it? I can't really vouch for it more than I have seeing as I have 90-95% exposure in it lol, then again I'm younger and I don't have dependents and my job security is great. Convinced my dad to have some exposure in early 2017 (he is around retirement age) and he has probably sub 5% exposure but its house money at this point for him... he trades more than me! I only make like 5 moves a year now if even that!
 
BNM said:
Your ravings would have had more (any?) gravitas if you’d made them in, say, June. If anything, posts like this on forums like this make me less confident in an upside. I am always interested in learning more, though, so what’s your business case/investment theory behind your bullishness?
Click to expand...
Dude, Ive held BTC since 2011
ETH for the past 4 years
I still have not sold if that means anything to you

Here watch this.... BTC is correcting....
Once it gets sidways support or trading upwards again, watch alt coins go to the moon again.

ETH will pass $1000 pretty easy next year when BTC has settled.
BTC will EASY be 25K soon next year. That Im very very confident in.
 
HaRDHouSeiNC said:
Dude, Ive held BTC since 2011
ETH for the past 4 years
I still have not sold if that means anything to you

Here watch this.... BTC is correcting....
Once it gets sidways support or trading upwards again, watch alt coins go to the moon again.

ETH will pass $1000 pretty easy next year when BTC has settled.
BTC will EASY be 25K soon next year. That Im very very confident in.
Click to expand...
NostradamusInNC. I guess we shall see.
 
HaRDHouSeiNC said:
Dude, Ive held BTC since 2011
ETH for the past 4 years
I still have not sold if that means anything to you

Here watch this.... BTC is correcting....
Once it gets sidways support or trading upwards again, watch alt coins go to the moon again.

ETH will pass $1000 pretty easy next year when BTC has settled.
BTC will EASY be 25K soon next year. That Im very very confident in.
Click to expand...
NostradamusInNC. I guess we shall see.

Duplicate post is duplicate.
 
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L3urntout said:
Hard disagree in that saying something in June would be different. People only care now cause of price and why would June vs Jan vs 2019 make a difference. I can only say that I've been accumulating for years to a point where most of y'all would say I'm recklessly exposed. It isn't fun to talk about something over and over when no one cares though. Everyone gets hype when it starts winning again lol, not going to bore you with how it oscillates with over the span of 3 years.

And the use case has remain unchanged. A trustless distributed ledger. Bitcoin is really nothing more than that, and imo that is enough to carry it. It quite literally fulfills its purpose by being an extremely liquid and available asset.

Ethereum is more broadly applicable in that you can either tokenize contracts and/or applications to function as fungible chunks. This is an extremely general explanation, right now mostly being used by lending/borrowing protocols but very cool stuff imo like flash loans and collateralized pools.

If you are interested in blockchains I can always point you in the direction of some very informative YouTube videos.
Click to expand...
“People only care now because of price...” and “Everyone gets hype when it starts winning again lol...”

Which was my point.

From what I’ve seen there are currency speculators and those who truly believe. I don’t see how the vision of the true believers comes true without a whole slew of fundamental geopolitical and socio-economic changes (abandonment of central banks, dollar standard, etc.) that would almost certainly bring with them many other unforeseen changes. But, I’ve been wrong before, so...
 
L3urntout said:
@BNM

To quote the creator here is a question

As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties: - boring grey in colour - not a good conductor of electricity - not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either - not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose and one special, magical property: - can be transported over a communications channel If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it. Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you've suggested, by people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange. (I would definitely want some) Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it. I think the traditional qualifications for money were written with the assumption that there are so many competing objects in the world that are scarce, an object with the automatic bootstrap of intrinsic value will surely win out over those without intrinsic value. But if there were nothing in the world with intrinsic value that could be used as money, only scarce but no intrinsic value, I think people would still take up something. (I'm using the word scarce here to only mean limited potential supply)

Now lets expand that to a global economy. Say you're in control of literal tens of billions of dollars, what are you investing in? Real Estate, sure, stocks of course, bonds/treasuries a portion, precious metals probably at least some, then there is underwriting debt, angel investments, VC funding, the list goes on, but at that level of scale you want exposure to pretty much everything if you're trying to preserve wealth. We are seeing that today grow to encompass cryptocurrency. There is a multi-thousand dollar premium on GBTC and hundreds on ETHE simply because those funds allow people to get exposure to BTC/ETH on their retirement accounts. Quite literally a dozens of % arbitrage opportunity if you bought GBTC and are an accredited investor who wants to maintain exposure.

Now the question becomes "what can you buy"? Currently it is use as the defacto payment system for several ecosystems. Virtual Currency (so games like Runescape, POKER :), sports betting), darknetmarkets, cryptocurrency token trading. I can use it to donate to TheWaterProject, buy various products, settle debts with others who accept it, buy motorcycles off craiglists!

Main advantages are things where there is onerous regulation stopping small-time players. Example there is a smart contract that allows users to pool funds into creating options contracts for cryptocurrency (incase you wanted to degen even more crypto exposure lol) or dexes (decentralized exchanges) that allow you to trade tokens that aren't listed on a regulated exchange, simply because the entry level for that is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment. Sure the risk for all this is pretty much uncalculatable in that if it goes bad your risk of ruin is pretty much guaranteed to be 100%, but that is the trade off of regulation no?

Been holding crypto for nearly 9 years now? Ran a trading desk for approx 4 years on it? I can't really vouch for it more than I have seeing as I have 90-95% exposure in it lol, then again I'm younger and I don't have dependents and my job security is great. Convinced my dad to have some exposure in early 2017 (he is around retirement age) and he has probably sub 5% exposure but its house money at this point for him... he trades more than me! I only make like 5 moves a year now if even that!
Click to expand...
Interesting stuff. Yes, people will create a currency out of lots of stuff (cigarettes in prisons, gold, silver, etc.). And, I understand how big investment folks feel they can’t afford to not be exposed. Just not sure it’s a fundamental play or a momentum play for them.

Maybe the more I read and hear it will make more sense to me as anything other than momentum currency speculation.
 
BNM said:
NostradamusInNC. I guess we shall see.

Duplicate post is duplicate.
Click to expand...
So I’ve been right for 11 years since BTC
Was $250
But this time
THIS TIME it’s going to zero
After institutional usage is much more than the last cycle
After Square and PayPal are players

if you don’t understand the uselessness and inflationary trends of fiat whatevs

feel free to watch from the sidelines
I turned 5500 into 125k so far just sitting on it

So where will it be in another 10 years
Not zero that’s for sure
 
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These scumbag wales shorting the corn. They are willingly destroying lives just so they can make a few million more$.
Money is truly the root of all evil.
 
BNM said:
“People only care now because of price...” and “Everyone gets hype when it starts winning again lol...”

Which was my point.

From what I’ve seen there are currency speculators and those who truly believe. I don’t see how the vision of the true believers comes true without a whole slew of fundamental geopolitical and socio-economic changes (abandonment of central banks, dollar standard, etc.) that would almost certainly bring with them many other unforeseen changes. But, I’ve been wrong before, so...
Click to expand...
Really?
I’ve cared since it has gone up down and sideways
If you don’t understand the utility
If you don’t understand money printing and inflation

if you don’t understand the halving cycles
Go look at Greece
Go look at Asia and the number of unbanked

BTC and crypto in general being an Avenue for financial unbiased decentralized freedom to all is more revolutionary than coins ever will be

Feel free to watch from the sidelines as a huge transfer of wealth occurs and call it vapor ware
I honestly don’t care
When the dollar looses another 50% of its value then maybe people will wake up
 
HaRDHouSeiNC said:
Really?
I’ve cared since it has gone up down and sideways
If you don’t understand the utility
If you don’t understand money printing and inflation

if you don’t understand the halving cycles
Go look at Greece
Go look at Asia and the number of unbanked

BTC and crypto in general being an Avenue for financial unbiased decentralized freedom to all is more revolutionary than coins ever will be

Feel free to watch from the sidelines as a huge transfer of wealth occurs and call it vapor ware
I honestly don’t care
When the dollar looses another 50% of its value then maybe people will wake up
Click to expand...
You do seem to care, actually. Very, very deeply. Which is very good of you. Giving us all fair warning to not miss out. :tup:
 
Let's not go into this ignorant:

The US dollar has been in a +/- 30% trading range for your lifetime as measured by its value vs other currencies. High inflation or low inflation doesn't seem to have the sort of effects one might have expected.

Inflation in the first world has been low for quite some while. I am more concerned with deflation than inflation and manage my assets accordingly. I agree it is hard to understand how the fiscal splurges of the last twelve years didn't lead to inflation in the US Dollar, but it didn't. Treasury yields are at record lows.

"Gold bugs" have been exceptionally concerned about inflation ever since the Carter administration ( 1976-1980), However, the Federal Reserve and US fiscal policy has essentially abolished inflation. Crypto has other reasons to prosper, which is good for it as inflation doesn't seem to be much of an issue for now.

I suspect a fundamental lack of understanding comes with the notion of a "huge transfer of wealth". My net worth was not diminished while other people racked up early gains in bitcoin. Nor was I enriched the last few years as the coin rose then fell then rose then fell then rose again. There is an opportunity cost that came from sitting on the sideline regarding bitcoin. The same could be said about amazon stock, or apple stock.

We don't know if bitcoin is the next great thing or a sucker's trap. Could be it is like buying Microsoft for a quarter per share. Could be it is like buying Iraqi Dinar, or beanie baby, or a herd of Emu. < shrug>

Please be sure to pay your taxes. Yes, playing in the crypto markets is taxable. Miners need to get specialized tax advice.

It is going to suck conducting business in bitcoin. EVERY transaction is its own taxable event (for now). For a single store that might amount to a million lines of capital gains and losses each year. The "wash sale" rules are going to be tested. < meaning you can't take losses on repeated transactions, but you still owe for the gains>

Paypal is going to report your side of transactions to the IRS. This could be a life changing event. Take the responsibility as a citizen to pay taxes seriously.

I have no idea about the tax systems in other nations. Good advice is essential.

The people who bought bitcoin and held it are not liable for taxes until they sell. < or buy something with it >

I wish you all good fortune. Be prudent. But I know some lessons have to be learned the hard way. - - - Or the path to great riches requires patience and persistence. Only time will tell which is which -=- DrStrange

PS after some reflection, I wonder how Paypal is going to handle its tax reporting obligations. On the surface it seems like they have to report each crypto transaction as a purchase and then a sale. That could end up being a massive job. Glad it isn't me having to get it done. Also sorry for the poor sods at the IRS dealing with such a dauntingly large tax return.
 
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HaRDHouSeiNC said:
My 3500 total investment 9 some years and going is worth about 125K today
Click to expand...

HaRDHouSeiNC said:
I turned 5500 into 125k so far just sitting on it
Click to expand...

Not sure which it is, but regardless it seems pretty clear you bought some for (however much) nine years ago that is worth 125K now.

I don’t know you from anyone else and certainly am not saying you are wrong on your crypto opinions. What I am failing to understand is why you appear to be sitting on what you bought cheep nearly a decade ago instead of having accumulated a whole lot more in that time?

If ETH is going to double in the near future why not convert all of your BTC to ETH, then back to BTC afterwards? Seems simple enough.
 
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Ronoh said:
Not sure which it is, but regardless it seems pretty clear you bought some for (however much) nine years ago that is worth 125K now.

I don’t know you from anyone else and certainly am not saying you are wrong on your crypto opinions. What I am failing to understand is why you appear to be sitting on what you bought cheep nearly a decade ago instead of having accumulated a whole lot more in that time?

If ETH is going to double in the near future why not convert all of your BTC to ETH, then back to BTC afterwards? Seems simple enough.
Click to expand...
After all that you found a phone misclick
Well done
Did you listen to the proponents when BTC was $200. I’ll guess no.

if you want to day trade sure you can double your BTC holdings if you want to try and swing trade and time the ETH markets. I’m not a day trader.

I’ve just bought at lows when BTC was $500 and ETH was $125 and hold

I’ve bought ETH lately when it was at lows and I feel it will out perform BTC
Since March I was correct

also did you know you can stake 32 ETH soon and earn staking dividends like interest when it switches to proof of work?

I’m into crypto for the next long haul not for profits today. For the same reason I don’t cash out the gold in my lock box and try to forex trade It. Not my thing. Buy and hold for the next 25 years as a hedge while the dollar value dwindles due to inflation
 
HaRDHouSeiNC said:
After all that you found a phone misclick
Well done
Click to expand...
I’m just trying to make sense of your posts, mainly because it sounds like in various ways you are trying to call others stupid.

Far as I can tell you invested $3500 in Bitcoin in 2011 and it’s now worth $125,000, correct? I know little about crypto history but a brief google search shows it’s price in 2011 was a low of under a dollar and a high of $31. So $3500 in 2011 would have bought, at minimum, 113 Bitcoins which would have a current value of nearly $2 million. It’s just not making sense to me, did I miss something somewhere?
 
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Ronoh said:
Not sure which it is, but regardless it seems pretty clear you bought some for (however much) nine years ago that is worth 125K now.

I don’t know you from anyone else and certainly am not saying you are wrong on your crypto opinions. What I am failing to understand is why you appear to be sitting on what you bought cheep nearly a decade ago instead of having accumulated a whole lot more in that time?

If ETH is going to double in the near future why not convert all of your BTC to ETH, then back to BTC afterwards? Seems simple enough.
Click to expand...


I mean i would think that amount has been spread out lol.

Of course trading to get more btc is what everyone wants to do, but you get burned with the blowtorch of humility. Or you get a haircut because you kept money on a shady hong kong exchange, or you blow 3k on blackjack that would now be 150k lol.

Also understanding has changed, I used to be a huge bitcoin maximalist in that I thought no other coins had a legit use case other than bitcoin, had 1000 eth at one point lol. Far from that point now.

And I think humans are bad at really quantifying and following through with asymmetric odds (implied odds amirite?)

I might have said BTC can easily reach 50k for awhile, doesn't mean I want to reduce my qol to scrape even more into it... I'm already exposed enough!

Most people wont even put 1-5% in and im already 90% in and you ask "if its so obvious why won't you dedicate more?"

I mean thats the feeling I get when I hear someone say "why didn't you accumulate more?" Because it was 1000x more risky than now to make that plunge lol?

Anyways excited if we can break the ATH today!
 

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