At The Wynn $1/$3 - KJs (1 Viewer)

[BGinGA]

Problem with check-raise plan is two-fold: he checks back and hits his draw on the river, or he just shoves instead of betting, depriving you of the fold equity.

I'm still jamming, applying maximum pressure.

 

[DrStrange]

Let's test the math for going all in.

Hero bets 400 / all in into a $200 pot (table math, not exact) Assume a third of villains range is two pair + and two thirds of the range are draws. Assume all the draws fold (though Hero gains equity every time a draw calls.)

Hero wins $200 two times in three

The last third is evenly divided between JT and sets.
Hero is something like 1-5 vs a set
Hero is a bit better than 1-3 vs top two.
Let's call it 23% blended.

Hero is winning 23% of a $1,000 pot or $230 paying $400 to play ------> net loss of $170.

Net-net over all three branches is +$400 on the folds less $170 on the call is +$230. Divide by three is +$77 expected value.

So that is the best play. Jam all-in

Go get 'em tiger, if called pray for luck -=- DrStrange

 

[Frogzilla]

That kinda minimizes the fold equity. So in that case you have to fold.

I don’t mind calling off with a top pair + flush draw any day. If he’s bluffing we got it. If he’s not, we still have he spade outs. I call a lot though.

 

[Frogzilla]

Problem with check-raise plan is two-fold: he checks back and hits his draw on the river, or he just shoves instead of betting, depriving you of the fold equity.

I'm still jamming, applying maximum pressure.

He raised flop after a c-bet from pre-flop opener, and turn bricked. How much fold equity are we expecting

 

[BGinGA]

He raised flop after a c-bet from pre-flop opener, and turn bricked. How much fold equity are we expecting

I'd definitely be folding Axd with no pair or straight draw to a large bet and only one card to come, and that's certainly in his flop raise range. I'm folding quite a few other hands, too.

Just because he pushed his draw(s) by raising a c-bet doesn't mean he wants to stack off now with just a draw and no made hand or a weak holding like middle pair (or even top pair). I think there is plenty of fold equity here, unlike a 4-bet on the flop (with two cards still coming).

 

[MrCatPants]

I'd probably put out a moderate-sized probe bet here to get more information. If he raised again, I'm out.

But then again, I kinda suck.

 

[ChaosRock]

He raised flop after a c-bet from pre-flop opener, and turn bricked. How much fold equity are we expecting

Well, therein lies a bit of a problem. When (if) we lead the turn, what are we really representing? The didn't change anything from his perspective. So for him, it wasn't a scare card at all other than putting one more flush draw on the board. Yes, one can argue this could be set of Js one. Call the raise on the turn and lead on a non-diamond board. But other than that, it's not super believable.

That can also invite a shove from a draw picking up on the above detail, assuming we didn't shove.

 

[ChaosRock]

Just wanted to throw out there that you guys have been awesome on the comments!!! Really good stuff guys, and it's much appreciated, really...

 

[ChaosRock]

Let's test the math for going all in.

Hero bets 400 / all in into a $200 pot (table math, not exact) Assume a third of villains range is two pair + and two thirds of the range are draws. Assume all the draws fold (though Hero gains equity every time a draw calls.)

Hero wins $200 two times in three

The last third is evenly divided between JT and sets.
Hero is something like 1-5 vs a set
Hero is a bit better than 1-3 vs top two.
Let's call it 23% blended.

Hero is winning 23% of a $1,000 pot or $230 paying $400 to play ------> net loss of $170.

Net-net over all three branches is +$400 on the folds less $170 on the call is +$230. Divide by three is +$77 expected value.

So that is the best play. Jam all-in

Go get 'em tiger, if called pray for luck -=- DrStrange

If we change the $400 with the $600 effective stack shove, the numbers change a bit, keeping your other assumptions the same:

+$200 fold equity ⅔ of the time = $134
-$278 ($1,400 x 23% - $600) equity ⅓ of the time = -$93

Still a positive EV ($41) but a lot closer...

 

[gopherblue]

Meh. Boooooring. Just jam and tell us what happened already.

 

[derekdd23]

I personally think there should never be a single lead for any check raise call situations. I would check call a small to medium bet and fold to anything large, I cant see myself ever being in this situation so it is tough for me to imagine what to do. I guess my button raise range here is far smaller than everyone else's because i dont have very many bluffs here, maybe that is why people always think i am bluffing and call off against me.

 

[ChaosRock]

I personally think there should never be a single lead for any check raise call situations.

That has been my point of view as well Derek, however, maybe in lower stakes one doesn't have to be super balanced and there could be one of two spots that the lead could be a better line. IDK... But yeah, I don't usually (could say never) lead in that situation and rarely (if ever) donk the flop as well...

 

[ChaosRock]

As I said, some very good comments made! Some lead bet suggestions, some lead shove suggestions, some check/call and some check/folds.

Per the comment above, I decided on a check/call line. Honestly, the lead (weather bet or shove) never crossed my mind during the hand. With the newly acquired equity, I thought it was okay to play for raw equity instead of pushing for fold equity. I would be good with Villain check behind as I would be okay with calling a medium bet and going to the river. Sooooo:

I hold mid position. Raise to $15, Villain calls on the button. Flop comes . I lead for $23, Villain makes it $80 and Hero calls. Pot $194. Turn is sort of favorable , making it . $600-ish effective behind. I checked aaaaaaaand... Villain SHOVES $600 into a $200 pot!!! I NEVER expected that.

Hero's action?

@BGinGA : that's the reason for the emoji on your original suggestion of a turn shove Dave. so I didn't do it but Villain DID!

 

[gopherblue]

Fold.

 

[ChaosRock]

Fold.

So you think Villain is shoving $600 into a $200 pot with a set?

 

[gopherblue]

I feel like he has top two pair and is putting you on an Adxd draw. He read your c-bet as a drawing bet, and your turn check as confirmation that you’re drawing.

OMC came to play.

 

[Rhodeman77]

As I said, some very good comments made! Some lead bet suggestions, some lead shove suggestions, some check/call and some check/folds.

Per the comment above, I decided on a check/call line. Honestly, the lead (weather bet or shove) never crossed my mind during the hand. With the newly acquired equity, I thought it was okay to play for raw equity instead of pushing for fold equity. I would be good with Villain check behind as I would be okay with calling a medium bet and going to the river. Sooooo:

I hold mid position. Raise to $15, Villain calls on the button. Flop comes . I lead for $23, Villain makes it $80 and Hero calls. Pot $194. Turn is sort of favorable , making it . $600-ish effective behind. I checked aaaaaaaand... Villain SHOVES $600 into a $200 pot!!! I NEVER expected that.

Hero's action?

@BGinGA : that's the reason for the emoji on your original suggestion of a turn shove Dave. so I didn't do it but Villain DID!

Wow! Very polarizing bet!!! Either it is a set from OMC saying get out of my pot with your draw. Or it is an Ace high diamond draw praying you go away.

Without more info on villian I’m more included to think it is the set and fold.

If you can get him talking at all that would be useful to see how comfort he appears.

 

[ChaosRock]

Wow! Very polarizing bet!!! Either it is a set from OMC saying get out of my pot with your draw. Or it is an Ace high diamond draw praying you go away.

Without more info on villian I’m more included to think it is the set and fold.

If you can get him talking at all that would be useful to see how comfort he appears.

Very, very polarizing for sure. I've seen many over bets in tourneys i played but in Holdem cash, I hadn't seen it in a casino, not 3x pot playing for stacks. Sure, at some donkey home games I've seen plenty of players over shoving something like an overpair on a low board. I've seen people over shoving KK on a low board afraid of an A on the turn, SMH.

I tried to get something out of him by some table talk but he was super stoic. Honestly, he hadn't said a word the whole time I was at the table. Weird, weird guy actually.

 

[BGinGA]

Yeah, his move really doesn't surprise me, since it's exactly what I was thinkng (and probably for the same reasons). Totally convinced he's drawing now (JT and 66 still possible), but Hero calling with just top pair and a draw is not my definition of a good time. I'd much rather have put that decision on him; essentially negating his positional advantage.

Villain has likely ranged you with AK / AQ / AT / KQ / KJ / 99 / 88 and maybe a flush draw, and is convinced he can blow you off your hand with the big overbet. And he's probably right.

Fold, and know better for next time.

 

[upNdown]

So you think Villain is shoving $600 into a $200 pot with a set?

Could be. Could be two pair. Could even be AJ. Seems like he's ahead of you and doesn't want you to make a flush.

 

[Rhodeman77]

With an “average casino” player this is a bluff and lean towards a call. Most casino $1/3 causal players bet smaller with their made not wanting to scare you out of the pot. While big bets are supposed to scare you away.

But an OMC type is different. They are always afraid of getting drawn out against so he will over bet to protect his hand.

 

[ilovegravy]

I probably fold. But I'm a nit. I feel like this bet is 100% to make you go away. I just can't decide if he's protecting the best hand or hiding behind a worse draw.

 

[MrCatPants]

Yikes. That's why I would have probed. Have to fold now.

 

[Coyote]

Probably even himself isn't totally sure he 's ahead, so he shoved partly protecting and partly bluffing, in order to never find out...

 

[ilovegravy]

Yikes. That's why I would have probed. Have to fold now.

But what does a probe accomplish? Villain has already come over the top of hero once. If he is committed to jam $600 into $200, the $75 bet from hero isn't going to change that.

 

[MrCatPants]

But what does a probe accomplish? Villain has already come over the top of hero once. If he is committed to jam $600 into $200, the $75 bet from hero isn't going to change that.

That assumes he was committed to that action before the hero's action. The check may have caused him to jam.

Like with the comment above, it caused villain to potentially put the hero on a draw.

 

[CraigT78]

I call a lot though.

True Story!

 

[MoscowRadio]

One of the things I'm really curious about is how many players are at the table? I know this is irrelevant now, but KJs is a very different hand in a full ring game versus a 6 or seven player table.

 

[bivey]

If he has a set of six’s, you have the worst luck in Vegas with or against 66 Evah!

 

[Forty4]

It’s not my money so you have to call.

That’s an odd bet. I’ll admit I’ve made similar plays with draws to push someone off a hand. Actually thinking you’re good because he has something like 99 or 88. Have you tables odd holdings like 78? But I really think he just wants you out of the hand. His line leans towards a middle pair and he just doesn’t want to see any paint on the river.