Tourney AKs UTG on the bubble (1 Viewer)

Not a clear fold. You showed weakness and he's trying to take advantage of that. It's actually a tough spot. Probably a fold but I'd at least think about jamming with 72K and putting him to the test.

How much does he have you covered by?

He only had 49K after his 24K bet as he started the hand with 2K more than I did (we happen to be comparing stack sized right before the hand during the exceeding long wait between hands).

I briefly did consider jamming because his bet could have easily been solely because I checked, but the truth is I had very almost no fold equity if he connected with any part of that flop and folding meant that at the very least I would still be able to wait it out to the cash line and then find a spot to try and double up.
 
Easy fold on the bubble, no need to get in the rest of your stack with A high on the turn when you can fold to the money at this point or pick a way better spot.
 
Hope he shows after the fold.

He does show me, and he also le me know what he would have done had I shoved prelop and what he would have done on the flop had I shoved instead of checked (both of which I believe based on his hand and what I knew of his play).
 
So no need to stretch this out as I obviously folded to his turn bet and there's not much left to discuss in terms of the hand itself.

He shows 57s. He flopped the OESD and turned second pair. He told me that had I gone all in preflop he would have folded (which I have no doubt after seeing his hand). He also said that once he flopped the OESD, given his stack, he wasn't going anywhere on the flop. I am inclined to believe him there was well. The question, which I didn't ask him because it wasn't really relevant, is what he would have done if the turns was a blank for him. I'm not sure he still leads out, and with one card to come he might not have called a shove like he said he would have on the flop. But that's somewhat unimportant as the turn did hit him and he clearly was committing to the hand when he lead out for 24k.

So in summary, had I shoved preflop I would have take down the blinds and antes (20K), but instead I dropped over a quarter of my stack and lost 24k. I try not to let the results skew my analysis of the hand, but I think this is a case where I made a pretty silly mistake by raising and not shoving (or folding) preflop.
 
I think the other important factor you have not mentioned is that now you're the BB so effectively you gave up almost half your stack in two hands. One of which was a premium hand the next one who knows. Sorry don't mean to pile on but it's an important aspect to consider when approaching the hand from the start.
 
I think the other important factor you have not mentioned is that now you're the BB so effectively you gave up almost half your stack in two hands. One of which was a premium hand the next one who knows. Sorry don't mean to pile on but it's an important aspect to consider when approaching the hand from the start.

You're 100% correct. After I misplayed that hand, I basically had to limp my way into the money and then hope to get lucky after that.

About an orbit (maybe two) later, when I had 65K (I stole blinds once), I got TT on the button and got a three way all-in preflop against AQ (SB) and KJs (MP). That's about as close to a three-way coin flip as it gets, and one that I was not on the right side of when MP flopped the flush leaving me almost drawing dead.
 
Are you trying to bait me into playing heads-up for rolls tonight?

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I think the other important factor you have not mentioned is that now you're the BB so effectively you gave up almost half your stack in two hands. One of which was a premium hand the next one who knows. Sorry don't mean to pile on but it's an important aspect to consider when approaching the hand from the start.

I think this is the determining factor. Its always not just the current hand itself but what happens next. What situation can you put yourself in by the way you play the current hand. Raising and ultimately folding then being the bb the next hand really damages your options. I think I would have shoved preflop since most of the time in this situation you will pick up the blinds and even if somebody calls its probably a flip.

Its way easier to play the hand on here after the fact with all of us experts helping you.....lol
 
I definitely shove in this spot. If you raise and get called by 2 players, you have nearly exactly a SPR of 1:1 (assuming your 24K raise value) - which really doesn't allow any maneuvering post-flop. AKs isn't a hand that plays particularly easy out of position, you can brick so many flops, not know where you stand, get blown off and lose minimum 1/4 your stack. I'd rather take all the fold equity that I have preflop. I'm not too stoked to get called and flip against various pocket pairs so close to the bubble, but we do need to win flips to win tournaments...and we should be going for the win not the min-cash ;)
 
People are faaaaar too liberal with the term "I'm playing to win" in these scenarios. He started the hand with less than one third of one percent of the total chips in play. If everyone folds to his shove, which is what he wanted, he has slightly over one third of one percent of the chips in play. If he gets one caller and wins he has under 70% of one percent of the chips in play.

Point is, there is literally nothing he can do here that will legitimately increase his chance of winning the tournament but he can absolutely lose any chance he has of winning.

Personally I shove here but I completely understand anyone who is folding and I don't see it as the slightest flaw in their game.
 
People are faaaaar too liberal with the term "I'm playing to win" in these scenarios. He started the hand with less than one third of one percent of the total chips in play. If everyone folds to his shove, which is what he wanted, he has slightly over one third of one percent of the chips in play. If he gets one caller and wins he has under 70% of one percent of the chips in play.

Point is, there is literally nothing he can do here that will legitimately increase his chance of winning the tournament but he can absolutely lose any chance he has of winning.

Personally I shove here but I completely understand anyone who is folding and I don't see it as the slightest flaw in their game.

I think this is a great point. And I wouldn't fault someone for folding.

However, I also know that the OP has 12bbs with 1/8 bb antes each hand. And the blinds are about to hit him for another 1.5 bbs. I think failing to scoop the blinds here might put him further into the danger zone... with a very premium hand, you need to put those chips to work for you when you're short stacked. He might go a couple orbits without a playable hand, which could be just as detrimental to his end game (each orbit he loses 2.5bbs). If he scoops the blinds now, he's going to end up with 14.5bbs (a little more breathing room).

Edited to add: I know fink is smart enough to know all of this, I'm just thinking out loud. :).
 
Agreed with both above.

FWIW according to Nash Eq you should (edit: could, perhaps not should) be shoving a lot wider than just premium hands in this spot.
 

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Agreed with both above.

FWIW according to Nash Eq you should be shoving a lot wider than just premium hands in this spot.

That chart doesn't take into account the overwhelmingly important factor that we're playing this hand on the bubble.
 
However, I also know that the OP has 12bbs with 1/8 bb antes each hand. And the blinds are about to hit him for another 1.5 bbs. I think failing to scoop the blinds here might put him further into the danger zone...

FWIW, even losing the 24k I raised with didn't put me in the danger zone. Despite being left with 9bb, and on the verge of losing 1.75 more over the next two hands, 7bb was going to be more than enough to survive to the bubble. Remember, while we were still 2 spots away from the money line, that was spread over 9 tables and 82 players. There were several short stacks with <3bb left at other tables and at the rate things were going I was almost certain we'd reach the bubble within 6-8 hands - well before I'd be in any danger if being blinded out. We actually hit cash line 3 hands later after I played my button, and at that point people (myself included) starting dropping like flies. :)
 
That chart doesn't take into account the overwhelmingly important factor that we're playing this hand on the bubble.

Oddly, that was one of the factors that made this a shove in my opinion. Bubble play tends to get players to tighten up. While a big stack would still call you with small pairs, players with 24 or so BB are less likely to be willing to swap places with you at this point. Big Slick is going to play a little stronger here than it would after the bubble bursts.
 
That chart doesn't take into account the overwhelmingly important factor that we're playing this hand on the bubble.

True, that's in a vacuum. The point is that it's overall a profitable shove. Stack sizes around the table make a huge difference in my decision as well. Sitting with the chip leader...I probably tighten my range a bit - although I still think AKs is near the very top. If most of the table is also short, I think a shove is better.
 

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