Everyone knows that you are a big favorite preflop with AA, but would you put it all in in this situation?
Yes.
Oh, wait, you didn't describe the situation yet...
Cash game, $1/$2 blinds. You've been playing for 5-6 hours straight and built up your stack from your $200 buyin to around $800.
Yes.
No, wait, the situation...
You get AA in middle position, you raise, but the big stack at the table comes over the top, and puts it all in. You are a 82% favorite. Would you call putting all your winnings and hard work for the night at risk?
Yes. In a heartbeat.
And, it's not hard work, it's fun. If it's hard work, you're doing something wrong.
Also also, you're 82% against a random hand. You're under 77% against 87s... but you're 92% against AKo. Which is more likely? Against most of the likely big-raise hands, you're quite a bit better than 82%.
What if there another was another caller ahead of your with a similar stack? You could triple up but now your odds of winning go down to 67%. Again, would you call putting all your winnings and hard work for the night at risk?
Yes.
You keep talking about your hard work... that's in the past. It doesn't matter to this hand. In this hand, you've got $800 and aces. That's all that matters.
Also, you're 73% against two random hands... but I'd still do it at your proposed 67%. I'd do it at 58%. (That's where you are if facing 76s and JTs, in different suits, neither suit matching one of your aces. That
may be close to the worst case.)
For that matter, I'd do it at 50%. It's still a huge edge when getting 3:1.
I'd do it in any cash game I play.
Also, I don't play in a cash game I can't afford... so though I've bought in for $200, it's a $1/$2 game, I probably came with $600 or more to play ($800 or $1000 is possible), and can afford to lose $800. It would suck, but it wouldn't be nearly as glorious as tripping up.
Now, if I were already playing way too high for my comfort, and the
absolute most I'm willing to lose was the $600 I brought with me, and I was actually
way ahead - say, my stack was $1500... then I might lay it down and call it a night. You see, that $1500 is mine, so if I'm unwilling to lose more than $600, the all-in against my aces makes me fold, and I gotta stop playing with $1500 I'm unwilling to lose. That bet reminds me I'm now playing too deep for the stakes I can afford, and I can no longer play poker... I am handicapping my game and reducing my skill level. I gotta get out.
When you're thinking about laying down aces pre-flop because of the bet size, you're not actually thinking about poker any more. You're thinking about the fact that you're gambling with more money than you should be... at which point you should be getting up from the table.
Outside of this, if I'm playing at stakes I can afford... I always call.
The only time it can be strategically wrong to call this hand is in a tournament, but we're talking cash game.
FWIW, in a cash game, no matter how many people call, it's right to be in with aces. If all nine opponents call, you're getting 31% against random hands, while having a chance of going up ten times (decupling?) In a tourney, if you were short stack, they might be right to all call to maximize the 69% chance of knocking you out, but I'd happily risk losing 7 out of 10 times in return for the chance to win 10:1 the other 3 times!
