1/2/5 PLO Hand Straddled to $40 (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Martino]

To me, this is the critical question:

"rhodeman77 said "the question becomes are you rolled and okay with playing $4k pots essentially all-in preflop?"

If my opponents want to give me a 70/30 edge each time then hell yes!

 

[upNdown]

If my opponents want to give me a 70/30 edge each time then hell yes!

Yeah, I just ran a calculator, and your odds were better than I thought. 70.9 for the hand you had, and even if you had the instead of the you'd still be pretty good at over 65%.

 

[Rhodeman77]

If my opponents want to give me a 70/30 edge each time then hell yes!

This is an uncapped game. What if a player sat down and said I will flip with you for your stack every hand and you are a favorite?

He has $1M in chips with him. What is your pain threshold 1 time? If you win will you go again, by your logic you have to, you have an edge? If you lose, do you put another $2k up and go again? Why wouldn’t you, you have an edge!!!

 

[Payback]

This is an uncapped game. What if a player sat down and said I will flip with you for your stack every hand and you are a favorite?

He has $1M in chips with him. What is your pain threshold 1 time? If you win will you go again, by your logic you have to, you have an edge? If you lose, do you put another $2k up and go again? Why wouldn’t you, you have an edge!!!

 

[CapybaraFan]

This is an uncapped game. What if a player sat down and said I will flip with you for your stack every hand and you are a favorite?

"The most celebrated story has Kerry Packer playing cards at a table in the Bellagio, which opened in 1998 as the flagship property of casino king Steve Wynn’s Mirage Resorts group. Mirage Resorts boss Bobby Baldwin confirmed the story to casino roundsman Norm Clarke in the Las Vegas Review-Journal in the days after Packer’s death.

Packer was playing at one table and a loudmouthed Texan, playing at the next table, wanted to join in. He didn’t take too kindly to the Australian’s rejection. According to Baldwin: The [Texan] said, 'I’m a big player too. I’m worth $100 million.' Kerry said, 'If you really want to gamble, I’ll flip you for it.'" [source]

Likely apocryphal, but still a fantastic story.

 

[Anthony Martino]

This is an uncapped game. What if a player sat down and said I will flip with you for your stack every hand and you are a favorite?

He has $1M in chips with him. What is your pain threshold 1 time? If you win will you go again, by your logic you have to, you have an edge? If you lose, do you put another $2k up and go again? Why wouldn’t you, you have an edge!!!

I would sell action and share in the winnings obv

 

[mipevi]

Some part of the time, Hero gets to claim $250 of dead money preflop uncontested. Other times, Hero gets to claim $700 on the flop where villain misses the flop. And occasionally Hero is playing for stacks - risking $1,900 to win $3,900. When playing for stacks, hero is normally a dog.

I think hero is actually a big favorite a lot of the time when playing for stacks here. SPR is just under one, so villain should continue with a lot of his one pair hands because he simply has enough equity to do so vs. perceived AAxx, for example:

Speaking of the villain, I think he played the hand poorly pre. Yes he can and probably should attack the straddles, but his raise is just unnecessarily large for his actual hand, which also doesn't play too well when 3bet by a perceived AAxx. Without knowing the stack sizes of all players, I think making it $90 (or even less) to go would have been preferable.

Given villain's large raise, I do believe 3betting is the best play for hero, provided he is comfortable with the variance. And if he isn't, well then he really shouldn't be sitting at the table with that much money.

I have a question for anyone advocating a call instead of a 3bet. Let's say everyone else folds, and we end up on that flop with an SPR of ~4. Villain's line is to bet two thirds pot on the flop, half pot on the turn, and finally half pot on the river, putting hero all-in. Given the turn and river cards, at which point would you fold the underrepped aces, or are you still going busto?

 

[JustinInMN]

I have a question for anyone advocating a call instead of a 3bet. Let's say everyone else folds, and we end up on that flop with an SPR of ~4. Villain's line is to bet two thirds pot on the flop, half pot on the turn, and finally half pot on the river, putting hero all-in. Given the turn and river cards, at which point would you fold the underrepped aces, or are you still going busto?

Very interesting question, here are my thoughts if I were in hero's shoes.

I might at least consider letting it go on this flop, because after flatting, I would have many more TTxx hands and more rundowns that fit this flop in my preflop flatting range. But it is tough especially blocking a ten here to put villain on anything huge with no straight or flush possible on the flop.

The running double board pair really only helps us against a dry ten which we already block, but it also severely blocks villain into having only 3 combos of sets, and a few more combos of trips of course which have us beat.

If I don't have villain pegged for a bluffer, I think it's possible for this to be a fold on the flop. If I have to defend against bluffers (and interestingly, flatting pre may induce more bluffs), I might talk myself into the idea that I will have sets in my range flatting pre, I will have open enders as well, I don't need to make my stand with AA and only backdoor backup.

If I call down on this line, I am assuming villain is loose enough to be on a stone bluff here.

 

[CapybaraFan]

Seems strange that in all of the above analysis, no one has even mentioned that villain donked into the preflop raiser for half pot. Does this not impact anyone's evaluation of villain's range?

I have to think we're doing quite poorly against a range that half-pots into a hand that is very, very, very often aces.

 

[mipevi]

Villain donking half pot tells me he is not folding (removes air from his range) and that he is bad because in reality he shouldn’t donk half pot with anything (leaving a silly quarter pot behind). Hero is still committed and just looking to get all the chips in. We would need very strong reads that villain takes this line with pretty much only monsters to lay aces down, but villain is an unkown and apparently bad.

 

[CapybaraFan]

Villain donking half pot tells me he is not folding (removes air from his range) and that he is bad because in reality he shouldn’t donk half pot with anything (leaving a silly quarter pot behind). Hero is still committed and just looking to get all the chips in. We would need very strong reads that villain takes this line with pretty much only monsters to lay aces down, but villain is an unkown and apparently bad.

Agree that villain isn't folding and doesn't have air. Don't agree that villain should never be donking for half pot into obvious aces.* Whether villain is bad might have been apparent later in the session, but wasn't apparent when the hand was played, so is irrelevant here.

I think we can draw more reasonable conclusions from his half-pot donk, though. I think we can remove:

(a) almost all KKxx/QQxx hands;
(b) most wrap and one pair plus small wrap hands.

The above hands would usually check and, if they bet, would be full potting to maximize fold equity. The only hands that should be doing everything possible to get the rest of the money in are sets.

In my view, the only hands that might sometimes donk for half pot that we would have to call off against are two pair hands. Obviously we aren't a favorite against those hands, but our equity makes it an obvious call. Against sets we are clearly not getting the right price and should fold.

Whether we should get it in or fold the flop is determined by how much we weight villain's range toward sets, which have us crushed, and how many combos we throw in of the hands discussed above that we can mostly (but not entirely, obviously) exclude. In my experience, the range of a random guy sitting at a red chip PLO game is going to be way too set-heavy here and so I would fold.

*Betting the same amount as an opponent's bet on a previous street is a very common and useful line in live poker when a player is looking to maximize the likelihood that his opponent will put more money in the pot, particularly at low-to-mid stakes ($1/2-$5/5 big bet). Often at these stakes PSBs are "a lot" of money in an absolute sense to the players and so, despite it appearing that they are pot-committed, they will find folds due to the size of the bet. The social pressure and embarrassment that attaches for some players to folding when their opponent repeats their earlier bet is often too much than they can bear and they will call more often. Then on the turn you can just bet the same amount again and they're all-in whereas they might have gotten away from the flop for a PSB.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Agree that villain isn't folding and doesn't have air. Don't agree that villain should never be donking for half pot into obvious aces.* Whether villain is bad might have been apparent later in the session, but wasn't apparent when the hand was played, so is irrelevant here.

I think we can draw more reasonable conclusions from his half-pot donk, though. I think we can remove:

(a) almost all KKxx/QQxx hands;
(b) most wrap and one pair plus small wrap hands.

The above hands would usually check and, if they bet, would be full potting to maximize fold equity. The only hands that should be doing everything possible to get the rest of the money in are sets.

In my view, the only hands that might sometimes donk for half pot that we would have to call off against are two pair hands. Obviously we aren't a favorite against those hands, but our equity makes it an obvious call. Against sets we are clearly not getting the right price and should fold.

Whether we should get it in or fold the flop is determined by how much we weight villain's range toward sets, which have us crushed, and how many combos we throw in of the hands discussed above that we can mostly (but not entirely, obviously) exclude. In my experience, the range of a random guy sitting at a red chip PLO game is going to be way too set-heavy here and so I would fold.

*Betting the same amount as an opponent's bet on a previous street is a very common and useful line in live poker when a player is looking to maximize the likelihood that his opponent will put more money in the pot, particularly at low-to-mid stakes ($1/2-$5/5 big bet). Often at these stakes PSBs are "a lot" of money in an absolute sense to the players and so, despite it appearing that they are pot-committed, they will find folds due to the size of the bet. The social pressure and embarrassment that attaches for some players to folding when their opponent repeats their earlier bet is often too much than they can bear and they will call more often. Then on the turn you can just bet the same amount again and they're all-in whereas they might have gotten away from the flop for a PSB.

It's pretty hard to put him on the last two 10's in the deck when I have one myself

Or a hand that made a set of 6's or 5's AND called close to $700 preflop, or a hand that made two pair on a 56T board after calling $700 preflop

There are bad players who will overvalue KKxx or QQxx here because they have a hold em background and apply that to PLO

I've had a guy calling raises preflop with K944 and stacking off on the turn with just the 2nd nut flush DRAW and the bare pair of 4's

So I guess any hand is possible. But still think on this board with the blockers I have, I need to stack off here given the pot size

 

[BGinGA]

Anthony, you're arguing again, instead of listening (and maybe learning something). It happens with you every so often, and it's happening again now.

Just a friendly observance, bro.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I guess the point I was trying to make and was brought up in another discussion is:

if this game was full of very strong players and you needed to maximize every small edge to make your money then make the raise and stack off as you see fit.

But that is not this game and nowhere close to it by your own admission. So wouldn’t giving up some margin of EV in high variance spots like this actually be MORE profitable to you long run? The value of having that $2k stack still to bust that same guy later on when you have more info on him and have a much better hand post flop?

Why the rush to get your stack in here when you know you can do it later in a better spot?

I’m assuming you didn’t pull $2k more out of your pocket after the hand and put it on the table so that you had the ability to win it right back.

The utility of having the $2k stack has value to it as well.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I guess the point I was trying to make and was brought up in another discussion is:

if this game was full of very strong players and you needed to maximize every small edge to make your money then make the raise and stack off as you see fit.

But that is not this game and nowhere close to it by your own admission. So wouldn’t giving up some margin of EV in high variance spots like this actually be MORE profitable to you long run? The value of having that $2k stack still to bust that same guy later on when you have more info on him and have a much better hand post flop?

Why the rush to get your stack in here when you know you can do it later in a better spot?

I’m assuming you didn’t pull $2k more out of your pocket after the hand and put it on the table so that you had the ability to win it right back.

The utility of having the $2k stack has value to it as well.

Unfortunately max buyin is 1k which I rebought for and quickly built that back up to $1,600.

I didn't snap shove after he bet. I just didn't put him on a set or two pair given the action and the makeup of my own hand, and opted to stack off

 

[CapybaraFan]

I just didn't put him on a set or two pair given the action and the makeup of my own hand, and opted to stack off

What about the action led you to believe he didn't have two pair or a set?

 

[Anthony Martino]

What about the action led you to believe he didn't have two pair or a set?

It's difficult to put him on a hand that calls my reraise preflop that includes

T6XX
T5XX
55XX
66XX

Because most of those hands should be folding. Perhaps T976 ds or T986 ds, but even then playing OOP and going to a flop with an SPR of 1:1 seems ill-advised

And of course harder to put him on TTxx because I have the T in my hand

I viewed his half-pot bet on the flop as someone playing KKxx on this board and not realizing he was up against Aces (i.e. I read the situation wrong)

 

[WedgeRock]

Villain just happened to be at the top of his range.

TT is not the top of Villain's range... He just smashed the flop.

 

[CapybaraFan]

It's difficult to put him on a hand that calls my reraise preflop that includes

T6XX
T5XX
55XX
66XX

Because most of those hands should be folding. Perhaps T976 ds or T986 ds, but even then playing OOP and going to a flop with an SPR of 1:1 seems ill-advised

And of course harder to put him on TTxx because I have the T in my hand

I viewed his half-pot bet on the flop as someone playing KKxx on this board and not realizing he was up against Aces (i.e. I read the situation wrong)

Why would KKxx lead into the preflop aggressor for half-pot?

 

[mipevi]

Why would villain lead anything into the preflop aggressor for half-pot with an SPR of under one? If for some crazy reason AAxx decides to check back, there is still two streets left to get the money in. In short, villain is bad.

TT is not the top of Villain's range... He just smashed the flop.

Right because AAKK is the top of range on a 567JQ board.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Why would KKxx lead into the preflop aggressor for half-pot?

Because not everyone is good at PLO. I've watched a player in a 2/5/10 game with 7k in front of them stack off on the flop with bottom set and a gutshot and no blockers to the flush draw.

I've seen a player call off with an overpair of 9's on a 348 flop and they couldn't understand how they got looked up and lost when their opponent had 5677

There are plenty of players with a hold em understanding of hand strengths in this game that will bet to "protect" their overpair to the board.

I get what you're saying. Part of it was I would expect someone who flopped top set there to check and let me shove.

I read his bet as someone in hold em with an overpair trying to protect it and I read it wrong.

 

[WedgeRock]

Right because AAKK is the top of range on a 567JQ board.

I'm assessing "top of his range" by his PF actions, not his actions after the flop came out.

 

[mipevi]

I'm assessing "top of his range" by his PF actions, not his actions after the flop came out.

Yes, clearly. However that's not what most people mean with "top of his range" when the money went in on the flop.

 

[CapybaraFan]

Because not everyone is good at PLO. I've watched a player in a 2/5/10 game with 7k in front of them stack off on the flop with bottom set and a gutshot and no blockers to the flush draw.

I've seen a player call off with an overpair of 9's on a 348 flop and they couldn't understand how they got looked up and lost when their opponent had 5677

There are plenty of players with a hold em understanding of hand strengths in this game that will bet to "protect" their overpair to the board.

I get what you're saying. Part of it was I would expect someone who flopped top set there to check and let me shove.

I read his bet as someone in hold em with an overpair trying to protect it and I read it wrong.

But if a KKxx hand is trying to protect, he's virtually never going to bet half pot. It's a goading bet. If he's trying to protect he's going to pot it.

I also don't think it's constructive to think of the farthest outlying, most unreasonable examples of bad play and say, "Well these guys are morons so I figured when this guy wanted to play a $4k pot, he was also a moron." Probably better to wait until you've seen a player play that badly before you play a $4k pot with one pair on the assumption that he has the one pair just below yours. This goes in part to @Rhodeman77's point above because when we're wrong we're a massive, massive dog when the money goes in.

Part of it was I would expect someone who flopped top set there to check and let me shove.

This in particular is worth discussing as well, I think. Consider how you'd play the hand if you were in villain's position. I think you've made it clear you'd have folded pre, but consider from the flop forward. Would you always check this flop to a guy you can know with 85% certainty has aces? Talking in the abstract and away from the table, we can say summarily, "The SPR was 1:1 so aces have to continue with a reasonable frequency," but in the moment you're looking at what most people would consider "a lot of money" behind. $1200 or thereabouts.

People aren't just going to toss $1200 in the middle of a poker table without a thought. So you have to convince them to do it by making it seem cheaper. You also - when you have top set on this board - want to get aces to feel even more committed before the turn comes. The majority of the time, if the OOP villain who flops top set checks, the player with aces is going to check behind (not saying you - the theoretical average player). As the player with top set you're not worried about the turn giving your opponent a hand that beats you - you're worried about the turn giving your opponent the opportunity to correctly lay down aces.

So you check and the turn comes 8h. Your top set all of a sudden has much, much, much less value versus aces, not because of any increase in equity, but a massive decrease in the likelihood that dry aces will call off the rest of the money. This flop checking through is an absolute disaster for TTxx. So if you're in villain's position, you have to get more money in there and you have to make it that much harder for aces to fold the turn/river. I've bet even smaller than half pot in similar spots in significant part to deplete villain's stack size so that when he is facing a bet for the rest of his stack, the rest of his stack isn't too much.

 

[WedgeRock]

@CapybaraFan's contributions to this thread merit him a nomination for the "@DrStrange Hand Analysis of the Year Award."

 

[Rhodeman77]

@CapybaraFan's contributions to this thread merit him a nomination for the "@DrStrange Hand Analysis of the Year Award."

yea, @CapybaraFan there won’t be any invites to my game