Trouble with suited connector in local donkament (1 Viewer)

[maloviz]

Context: $100 live tournament - 20m levels - 25k starting stack

2h in, Still 1h of late reg/rebuys (people rebuy and go crazy a lot, especially near the end of rebuy)

Blinds 500-1000-1000

Hero in BB with 60BB

+1 has ~80BB

7 handed (and button is not at the table)

Action:

Utg: opens to 3BB

+1 call and +2 call

Hero in bb with T9dd - completes

Flop: Ad7d6c

Hero checks with plans to check raise.

Utg: bet 8k (~69k behind)

+1: raise 18k all in

+2 fold

What should hero do here? The only read hero has on either player is utg looks ready to call the all in.

 

[FordPickup92]

Sounds to me like someone's jamming a naked Ace here to prevent you from calling the flush draw.
Could be up against a better flush draw (KQJd)
Personally I'm probably folding

Edit: didn't realize you're in the big, completing is OK here with that hand for me, but I'm still folding to a jam

 

[Gunnar]

Fold,

Also Check raise is not a strong move there. You have 35% of completing a flush keep in mind that KQJ of diamonds are still out the in hands like KQdd KJdd
We have 47% against an Ax
We have 42% against a Two pair
We have 33% against a set
We have 26% against a higher flush draw

We are head of 56x with 62% and dominate 89x with 79%

You have 60BB and starting stack is 25BB are you risking that stack to rebuy 25BB where the only hands you really want to see from your opponents are 56 or 89?

IF it is a three way action AND I can rebuy double or an Addon in break would get me back up to around the stack that Im putting on the line here then it might be worth to shove but the odds are against us. At best in a three way pot we have around 48% win odds against AK and a open ended draw.

Best case scenario is less than Half of the time you more than double your stack and more times than not your going to rebuy

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

I know people sometimes go crazy with rebuys, but what are we hoping to see vs two people? Are you going to rebuy if you get knocked out? What's our read on +1, is he doing this with any ace at that stack depth? I agree with @FordPickup92 , I expect him to have an Ace and UTG should have a scary range. Is he the type to raise UTG then lead a flop with 76? Just pairs? Complete air?


If we call and UTG decides to just call as well, we're sitting with 39k and a pot of 66k + a dry side pot, not happy. This is a sucky place to have a gutshot and mid flush draw.

 

[FordPickup92]

Fold,

Also Check raise is not a strong move there. You have 35% of completing a flush keep in mind that KQJ of diamonds are still out the in hands like KQdd KJdd
We have 47% against an Ax
We have 42% against a Two pair
We have 33% against a set
We have 26% against a higher flush draw

We are head of 56x with 62% and dominate 89x with 79%

You have 60BB and starting stack is 25BB are you risking that stack to rebuy 25BB where the only hands you really want to see from your opponents are 56 or 89?

IF it is a three way action AND I can rebuy double or an Addon in break would get me back up to around the stack that Im putting on the line here then it might be worth to shove but the odds are against us. At best in a three way pot we have around 48% win odds against AK and a open ended draw.

Best case scenario is less than Half of the time you more than double your stack and more times than not your going to rebuy

I think if hero wants to get squirly with a hand like this you're better off reraising from the BB preflop and getting heads up.

 

[Gunnar]

I think if hero wants to get squirly with a hand like this you're better off reraising from the BB preflop and getting heads up.

Agreed this is not an easy hand to play in a multiway pot unless you hit two pairs, straight or an Ahigh flush on the flop.

As played pre-flop
If we lead in flop we are getting re-raised by strong Ax, two pars, sets,
We are getting called by better flush draws, weaker Ax, open enders and maybe just maybe QQ KK 78s

If we get raised it is a fold as we are behind,
If we get called and the turn is blank I would change this into bluff by shoving or give up by check folding to bet. Take in note that the only blank cards are non diamonds 2,3,4,9

5 complete the open ended for 89 = easy call for them
6 gives all A's two pairs = easy call for them
7 gives all A's two pairs = easy call for them
8 gives us nuts = hopefully someone has a set or two pairs
10 - J helps a lot of hands like A10 and AJ = are going to call the bluff now
Q - K helps a lot of hands like AK AQ KK QQ KQS KJs to find the bluff call
on Diamond shove and pray we don´t get called by a higher flush

 

[chippitydoodah]

You know if you go all in the Turn & River will be Diamond Diamond and Villain holds JcJd

 

[maloviz]

Alright. Time for the reveal.

Spoiler: Click for the rest of the hand

I'm almost embarrassed to reveal this, especially with the seemingly unanimous decision that Hero should fold... Hero ended up tanking for a minute then shoving.

Utg snap called with AQo (Queen of diamonds)

And +1 flipped over bottom set.

Turn 9. River brick.

The ride home I had plenty of time to think about the play. I wish I would have given it more thought in the moment because really I seems like at best I'm 40-50% equity.

On the plus side, if I had found the strength to fold and the run out came with a diamond or 8 I probably would have felt even worse lol.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Alright. Time for the reveal.

Spoiler: Click for the rest of the hand

I'm almost embarrassed to reveal this, especially with the seemingly unanimous decision that Hero should fold... Hero ended up tanking for a minute then shoving.

Utg snap called with AQo (Queen of diamonds)

And +1 flipped over bottom set.

Turn 9. River brick.

The ride home I had plenty of time to think about the play. I wish I would have given it more thought in the moment because really I seems like at best I'm 40-50% equity.

On the plus side, if I had found the strength to fold and the run out came with a diamond or 8 I probably would have felt even worse lol.

Don't be embarrassed, that's why we do this. At the table you'll never play perfectly but you'll remember this line of thinking and it'll make you better. I try not to post hands I think I played well, I post ones where I've lost value or messed up in some way. Turns that unsure feeling into a helpful "yeah you screwed up" analysis.

You've got a pretty hand but tough to see a runout where I'm really happy. I love that you picked up a live tell...NEXT TIME, USE IT!