Tricky spot with A-T (1 Viewer)

[snooptodd]

Playing $1-$2 nlh, button has straddled to $4, one blind has folded, everyone else folds to hero in hijack, who finds Ac-Tc, sitting on a stack of $130.

Hero makes it $10, button and blind call. Button has been raising hero's continuation bets all night, and hero has not been connecting with flops and giving up without too much resistance. Blind is new to the table and hero has no read to this point.

Flop (~$30)
Kd Ks 9h

Blind checks. Do we fire out a continuation bet here? What's the plan of action?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I would C-bet here to $16. Would button really raise if he hit the king? Probably not, so if he raises you jam it on that sucker.

 

[jbutler]

I would C-bet here to $16. Would button really raise if he hit the king? Probably not, so if he raises you jam it on that sucker.

agreed again. i guess Bill can just add "agreed. -jbutler" in his sig for all his strat posts.

 

[Ben]

Would button really raise if he hit the king? Probably not, so if he raises you jam it on that sucker.

I would, if I had been raising a guy all night. He's bound to get fed up sooner or later.

Even so, he probably has a good amount of gutshots/underpairs/air in his range if he raises. Bet/3-bet works for me.

 

[snooptodd]

So hero opts goes against conventional wisdom and opts to check.

Turn brings an offsuit jack. Blind leads out for $10. Action on Hero.

 

[DrStrange]

I don't like playing vs unknowns with little more than air. Could be tricky/trappy with Kx. Could be sticky with Q9 or QJ (pair plus gut shot). Could be really sticky with Jack-rag. That tiny bet could be weak or could be a trap, no way to know. Oh and there is still the button out there who might have a hand.

Point is, Hero is in no place to try a fancy play. This board sucks for hero and could easily have hit villains' ranges. I am done.

Cluck cluck -=- DrStramge

 

[snooptodd]

Because I had position and it was clear from his behavior at the table that the button was going to fold, I decided to call to take a river and see what happens.

River (~$50)

Qc

(board now reads K-K-9-J-Q)

Bingo, I've made my straight. SB leads out for $40. Hero has $120 left ... call or jam?

 

[fish72s]

If he doesn't have a full house then go all in.

 

[onerand]

That's gin. Shove.

 

[fish72s]

There are 2 variables you need to know. What are the chances that he has a boat and what are the chances he will call you w/o one.
In theory the first should be the easiest to figure out although I don't know how to do it. I'm guessing about 1/3 of the time he's boating.

I think your decision should be based mainly off of villain's image of you.
I tend to under estimate this chance because I (usually) only raise in this spot with a boat. But others would do it with trip kings, one pair hands or as a bluff. How does he view you?
Then take this percentage and the percentage of him having a boat and plug them into the magic poker equation to determine whether you should raise or not.
If the result doesn't match the decision that you have already arrived at then adjust the percentages as needed. Do not change the equation.

Probably a raise is +EV but I think its alot closer than it seems.
BTW, I was in almost this same spot a few weeks ago after flopping a straight and running 8's. I pulled the trigger and got a 'crying call' from a baby boat.

 

[snooptodd]

I eventually asked him if he had me covered (I couldn't see his chips, he was just two seats down and the button was blocking my view) and he seemed way too comfortable, so after thinking about it for a minute or so, I finally opted to just call. He ended up having KQ, so he boated up on the river, right when I hit my straight. Still not sure what the correct answer here is generally, though I did happen to make the right call here, aided in large part from a live read. The mistake, however, was made in calling the turn bet.