Tournament hand (1 Viewer)

[joker80]

Pretty sure I butchered this hand, but looking for advice

75/150 level of a T5000 tournament. Table is 7 handed. MP opens to 400 and we are in the CO with 4500 chips. MP has about 5300. We look down at . Blinds are basically starting stacks of 5000 as well.

Fold, call or raise?

 

[joker80]

Reads on the MP open is that he is a tight player, passive, not overly aggressive

 

[Wils]

Either fold, or raise. If you raise, you're doing that because you don't want the shoe clerks and crumbums to call behind you, and given QJ isn't great it might also mean your tight player folds anything other than premium hands, in which case if he calls and an ace pops out on the river, you know where you stand.

You know that any ace or king beats you, after all. Try and take it there and then.

 

[moose]

Raise to what? Are you going to put in ~25% of your stack with qjo against a passive tight player who has suddenly come out raising and with people to act behind you? It's two paint cards that particularly suck. Fold.

 

[joker80]

about 10 percent of stack (Edit- I just understood that you meant the raise was to 25 percent. My bad)

 

[Trihonda]

Fold

 

[DrStrange]

Fold. Hero has an "M" of 20. There is no need to be making rash actions. As others have said - Villain is tight / passive. Exactly NOT the sort of player you want to 3-bet here with QJo. Expect to lose more chips than you win in this type of circumstance.

In other circumstances, Hero's table image matters - perhaps a lot. But Hero should be folding, making his table image moot for this hand.

 

[onerand]

Some other info is helpful, although this feels like a one table tournament with top 2 or 3 paid. How does MP play post flop? Fold or Raise to 1100 is ok, but as a bluff, you block some strong hands and it leverages your whole stack. Fold to 4bet.

 

[Ellasdaddy]

^This

 

[David O]

I would say fold. Maybe a slightly different story if they were at least suited

 

[joker80]

I did what none of you suggested and called . The flop came as the proceeding 3 cards. MP led at 600. Call, raise , or fold

 

[DrStrange]

Fold. This is a RIO situation, hero stands to lose more when he loses than win when he wins. (again, we really need to know Hero's table image to make any other choice. Ideally we would have some notion about villain's stickiness post flop.) I don't like testing the courage of a tight-passive who has taken aggressive action twice in the hand.

In a cash game, Hero might be able to blow Villain off a better hand or a better draw. But here in a tournament setting Hero is nearing a pot committed situation where he will need to risk his whole stack to get villain to fold. Hero needs the stacks to be much deeper than they are now if he wants to try a fancy play - once Hero calls 600 he has 3,500 left facing a pot of 2,225.

Keep in mind that I am not much of a tournament player, so take my thoughts accordingly -=- DrStrange

 

[Trihonda]

If you had the jack of spades, I might find a raise/call, but as is, fold.

 

[ChipTalker]

Fold for me. There will most likely be a much better spot later on.

 

[FDLmold]

Get in your time machine and fold preflop.

 

[JoseRijo]

Why would you call pre-flop to fold top pair on the flop to a 1/2 pot continuation bet? I'm hoping for showdown, but I'm not folding as played.

OP, if you don't know what Sklanksy's Gap Concept is, you should look into it.

 

[Trihonda]

Why would you call pre-flop

Exactly

Why would you.....fold top pair on the flop to a 1/2 pot continuation bet?.

Because he's likely behind. And if he's behind, and calls this c-bet, he's pretty close to pot committed, and will likely be facing a turn bet. There are no good turn cards for him (save the three remaining jacks).

He's gonna go bust on a mediocre Q, against a tight player who hasn't gotten out of line.

 

[joker80]

Not heeding your wise advice, I called the flop bet. The turn was . MP bets 600 again. Action as played?

 

[DrStrange]

Hero's problem is that his holding is fragile with two rounds of betting to come. If Hero calls the modest flop bet, what is the plan for the rest of the hand?

On the best days, villain never bets again and Hero wins at showdown. Hero's flop call wasn't very expensive and ended up paying a good price.

But if villain bets again, is Hero planning to call? Let's say after a brick on the turn, villain bets something between 1/3 and 1/2 pot - is Hero putting ~800 of his 3,400 chips in the pot?

Does Hero ever call a bet on a four-flushing board?

Hero's best chance to win the pot seems to be turning his hand into a bluff. Would villain call an all-in if he was missing a spade in his hand? That line has some merit, but the risks are larger than the reward. We don't have much of an idea about villain's stickiness, but I'd hate to learn he can't fold an overpair when Hero's shove gets snapped off leaving Hero drawing for his tournament as a 1-4 dog.

Hero made a mistake calling the preflop bet. Folding the flop after a miss was one of the better outcomes. That didn't happen. Hero caught top pair and is predictably facing a bet - lest we forget, the villain is a passive player who has raised preflop and is now betting the flop. Sure, it is seductive to hope villain is holding AK and is making a C-bet (and sometimes he is) but Hero's hand is already wilting with more cards to come and potentially more bets to pay-off. I am not persuaded by the logic that has Hero making a mistake on the flop because he made a mistake preflop.

Hero might win this hand if he persists, but in my mind even trying one more time is an error -=- DrStrange

PS and now we see the turn just posted prior to my reply. Hero should jam all in now, he is only behind or AQ(assuming the passive read is good, I can't put villain on a weaker flush) Hero isn't folding now and a four-flush river is going to make Hero puke unless it is the

 

[ChaosRock]

Because he's likely behind.

So your range for the opener is QQ+? :

 

[DrStrange]

Given the read of a tight passive player who is raising preflop, I'd think a preflop starting range of JJ+ AQ+ is reasonable.

Then we have the post flop bet leading us to a range of AA / KK / AQ / AK (holding one or two spades) or air. And now we have a turn bet with the board paired and yet our tight passive villain is still betting. Either the read is wrong or the villain's range is quite tight by now.

Hero is ahead of more hands than he is behind, 6 x AA + 6 x KK + ~2 AK [ flush draw] = 14 times ahead vs 1 AKs + 4x AQ + 1 unexpected flush + ~1 KQ = 7 times behind. Hero is stacking off to a river bet when he is losing, so he might as well jam all-in now and make villain to pay to draw to a flush those times it matters.

 

[Trihonda]

So your range for the opener is QQ+? :

OP posted the turn results after I posted. I would have rather seen a jack turn, than a Q.

I was commenting on the desirability of calling the flop bet with a mediocre queen, given the tight image of the villain.

Essentially, I think the concept of RIO comes into play, if you hit, you're often times behind, and if you hit and are behind, you're going to lose big. Bad spot to be in, which could have been avoided by folding pre.

The turn changes things slightly.

 

[ChaosRock]

OP posted the turn results after I posted. I would have rather seen a jack turn, than a Q.

I was commenting on the desirability of calling the flop bet with a mediocre queen, given the tight image of the villain.

Essentially, I think the concept of RIO comes into play, if you hit, you're often times behind, and if you hit and are behind, you're going to lose big. Bad spot to be in, which could have been avoided by folding pre.

The turn changes things slightly.

I posted before knowing the turn also... And I'm not arguing against any other reason to fold the flop, only your statement that "Hero is likely behind"... Unless Villain is the tightest players I've seen, as the Doc seems to think, I do not think we are "likely behind"... In fact, assuming a MP tight opening range, we should be way ahead of Villains range...

 

[JoseRijo]

You have just turned the nuts. You may now shove.

 

[Ronoh]

You have just turned the nuts.

But yeah, shove away

 

[joker80]

Ok like I said, I butchered this hand. I called the turn (n) :thumbsdown: River is leaving a board. The MP checks ..... value bet or check it down?

 

[FDLmold]

Consistent with your play this hand, just fold the river.

 

[Trihonda]

I agree with others, as played with the turn bet from the villain, I think a jam is ok.

On the river, I see a possible flush and paired board, and we have mediocre three of a kind. My money is still on villain holding AQ. It makes sense to me. He's a tight player, and hits Top Top on a Flush board. He bets, gets called, and then turns trips with an ace kicker, and bets small again, and gets called again. I could see this type of player going into check call mode on the river, as he also has showdown value. But I could be wrong. It's a tourney, so I think it polarizes the villains range. I also think an AA or KK (with at least on spade) could be possible.

Low variance route might have you check back. You might be ahead (I'm still not 100% sure), but you have showdown value, so I check behind. Any hand that calls your value bet is likely beating you.


I think in a cash game, I'd value my QJ much higher in this spot, because the villains range will be much wider. In a tourney, given the villains description, I would choose a lower variance route.

 

[DrStrange]

Check behind. Villain often can play close to perfectly now - folding hands that Hero beats and calling with the hands that beat Hero

 

[joker80]

Let the butchering continue. I sense he has a high pocket pair like AA or KK or possibly an AK with the. I bet 1000 for value not considering that he would likely fold all the weaker hands. He thinks for a bit and calls with. He says he might have folded to a river shove, but I'm not so certain, as it could look like a missed flush draw.

Thanks for the help guys, I should have folded pre flop. I should have checked the river as played. Probably should have shoved the turn as played. You've heard of three streets of value, but this is my version of three streets of errors.