Tough river spot in deepstacked $.50/$1 (Mavens) (1 Viewer)

[Senzrock]

The only place you have an edge from UTG is against the blinds, beyond that UTG is the least profitable position because your playing OOP vs. the rest of the table. I wouldn't even open this, let alone call a 3-bet sitting 500+ blinds deep OOP. This flop is one of the best ones you could hope for and even then you end up being a situation where you aren't sure what to do. If I'm opening UTG, I'd rather have 76s or A5s to give more board coverage/nutted hands.

I can appreciate this, but do you only play spots where you are always in a situation where "you ARE sure what to do?". Obviously that is the objective, but I think that if we see spots that we consider profitable (including being able to make exploitable folds later on or, alternatively, put maximum pressure on players that aren't comfortable playing 500bb deep), I try to always mix that into my play. Otherwise I am just too easy to play against. I might do the same here with 43cc as with QTo as with 99. Playing a mixed strategy, with some raise/folds pre and some raise/calls pre, seems optimal in a game like this. Just my own two cents, like I said, I can appreciate you analysis of the spot.

 

[Senzrock]

Raising this flop is repping a pretty narrow value range and a lot of semi bluffs with a ton of equity, I don't think a villain is folding an overpair to a single raise on this board, maybe AK goes away sometimes. The problem with playing these types of hands OoP is the types of spots you find yourself in on the turn now - there's a decent chance you're behind at this point to an overpair or AQ / KQ. I assume you're going to want to keep putting pressure on now, so you probably have to continue for something like $70 into $105, and hope it goes check check on the river if you don't improve, of which I expect to lose a decent amount of showdowns.

Plan is definitely to follow through on blank turns (and importantly blank rivers) to apply maximum pressure on his capped range/1 pair type of hands. Also think KQ ends up folding often by the river.

 

[Payback]

Plan is definitely to follow through on blank turns (and importantly blank rivers) to apply maximum pressure on his capped range/1 pair type of hands. Also think KQ ends up folding often by the river.

The problem with the CR flop, barrel, barrel line is it your range becomes nutted or bluffs. I think if a blank falls on the river and you barrel again Villain is calling off because you will end up with a more bluff heavy range compared to the number of value hands you have here.

 

[Senzrock]

The problem with the CR flop, barrel, barrel line is it your range becomes nutted or bluffs. I think if a blank falls on the river and you barrel again Villain is calling off because you will end up with a more bluff heavy range compared to the number of value hands you have here.

I definitely agree from a theoretical standpoint, and I myself might talk myself into a call-down situation should a competent opponent take this line against me, but against this specific player pool, I don't see many people wanting to put in 500+ bbs with one pair, even AA/KK on a board as wet as this. But yes, otherwise agreed.

 

[Jimulacrum]

While players understand me as an aggressive player, they rarely see me check-raise, bomb, bomb without at least two pair here so I would be counting on fold equity.

In other words, despite having flopped top pair and an open-ended straight draw, you still feel compelled to turn it into a three-barrel bluff because your opponent is too strong for you to be confident in your hand. And the bluff may very well not work, because you have a history of being an aggressive player, and there's some chance Villain will insist on taking his AA, KK, or whatever to showdown rather than getting bullied out by you.

Welcome to how I learned to tap the brakes in my LAG game.

Speaking of which, that's a pretty substantial check-raise he just called, and you have to act first on the blank turn. Villain is clearly strong. Continue bombing off stack into strong opponent who seems willing to get sticky? Nah. Check hoping for a check back, with the intention of folding or calling, depending on the bet size. Remember, if you hit the straight, you're probably not getting paid much if at all.

 

[JMC9389]

Fold Pre. QTo should be an UTG fold, even in 6 max and even more importantly when you are this deep. Flop should be a C/C.

This. Call me a nit, but I've folded Q10 and K10 offsuit when I'm first to act in a deep stacked game.

Gross flop. With the action as is, I call that villain bet. He's betting 3/4 pot to preserve a likely pair that didn't make a set. Villain's 3 bet range is wide on the button and can include those set mining hands like 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88.

 

[Senzrock]

In other words, despite having flopped top pair and an open-ended straight draw, you still feel compelled to turn it into a three-barrel bluff because your opponent is too strong for you to be confident in your hand. And the bluff may very well not work, because you have a history of being an aggressive player, and there's some chance Villain will insist on taking his AA, KK, or whatever to showdown rather than getting bullied out by you.

Welcome to how I learned to tap the brakes in my LAG game.

Speaking of which, that's a pretty substantial check-raise he just called, and you have to act first on the blank turn. Villain is clearly strong. Continue bombing off stack into strong opponent who seems willing to get sticky? Nah. Check hoping for a check back, with the intention of folding or calling, depending on the bet size. Remember, if you hit the straight, you're probably not getting paid much if at all.

Yeah in game I'm not sure I saw my flop raise as a bluff perse. I think QT does decently well against villains entire range and if you include any fold equity I think it's +EV, maybe I was being optimistic. Any bets on the turn or river *would* be considered semi-bluffs, again, having put villain at that point on a tight range of AA/KK/AKs/AQ/TT... agreed that once he calls the flop bet, we can safely assume he has a hand, with AQ/KQ most likely being at the bottom of his range.

 

[Senzrock]

This. Call me a nit, but I've folded Q10 and K10 offsuit when I'm first to act in a deep stacked game.

Gross flop. With the action as is, I call that villain bet. He's betting 3/4 pot to preserve a likely pair that didn't make a set. Villain's 3 bet range is wide on the button and can include those set mining hands like 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88.

Yeah, so if villains range can include 2s-8s + AK, then I am WELL ahead of his range with QT. Including what's in the middle, I should, mathematically, be willing to put stacks in on the turn. I think, even conservatively speaking, I should have at least 20% fold equity when I continue to put pressure on right?

 

[Senzrock]

(btw, in case this isn't assumed, I am happy to consider that I played this hand terribly lol, just making "my case" in the replies).

 

[mipevi]

Alright fuck it, check/raise turn and shove river!

 

[JMC9389]

Yeah, so if villains range can include 2s-8s + AK, then I am WELL ahead of his range with QT. Including what's in the middle, I should, mathematically, be willing to put stacks in on the turn. I think, even conservatively speaking, I should have at least 20% fold equity when I continue to put pressure on right?

The blank of a turn helps. I'm not sure about what story you'd want to tell here. Do you tell the story that you're on a draw and bet big again? Do you downbet and make it look like you're trapping with a set or a flopped straight? I know I wouldn't check here. As soon as you check raised that flop the jig is up.

I'm putting villain on a high pair or even a flopped two pair here now if they called your check raise. I think AK and low pairs go away to a check raise on that flop unless they're super LAG.

 

[Senzrock]

Alright fuck it, check/raise turn and shove river!

 

[moechar]

I'm just trying to find out how this ends

 

[Senzrock]

The blank of a turn helps. I'm not sure about what story you'd want to tell here. Do you tell the story that you're on a draw and bet big again? Do you downbet and make it look like you're trapping with a set or a flopped straight? I know I wouldn't check here. As soon as you check raised that flop the jig is up.

I'm putting villain on a high pair or even a flopped two pair here now if they called your check raise. I think AK and low pairs go away to a check raise on that flop unless they're super LAG.

I we do bet turn, I think we are telling a story that we have AA beat here. We are saying "we know you might well have an overpair, and we are not afraid of it." As others have pointed out, this narrows our range considerably but I think we still have many combinations of: KT (suited + non), QJ (suited and non), Q9s, QQ, JJ, 99, T8s. These are all holdings that villain would not be surprised to see in my hand and has to give me some credit for. I think we have enough value hands that we can represent something stronger than 1 pair here credibly. What do you think?

 

[Senzrock]

I'm just trying to find out how this ends

 

[Hammer517]

Game: NL Hold'em (80 - 200) - Blinds 0.50/1
Site: Mavens
Table: Mixed 0.50/1.00 6-Max (NL + PLO)

Seat 3, UTG: Hero ($532.75) holding []
Button: Villain ($797.25)

Action:
Hero raises to 3
Folds to button
Villain raises to $10.50
Folds back to hero, I call $10.50.

Context: This is a fairly loose/fun Superbowl home game, sitting 6-handed, no rake. Players are overall average to slightly below average NL players. I consider myself quite a bit better than every player at the table, and deep-stacked I am looking for excuses to play hands in many situations. Preflop, it's a loose call, especially out of position. Generally a pretty -EV call but again, due to stack depths and skill advantage, I don't mind playing a few speculative hands here, leaning on my experience to get away cheap or win a big hand. For those pointing out that this is an easy fold - I generally agree with you, but again understanding the dynamics, I think this is an OK call.

** Flop ** []

Hero checks
Villain bets $15 into $22 pot.

Action to Hero?

I can appreciate this, but do you only play spots where you are always in a situation where "you ARE sure what to do?". Obviously that is the objective, but I think that if we see spots that we consider profitable (including being able to make exploitable folds later on or, alternatively, put maximum pressure on players that aren't comfortable playing 500bb deep), I try to always mix that into my play. Otherwise I am just too easy to play against. I might do the same here with 43cc as with QTo as with 99. Playing a mixed strategy, with some raise/folds pre and some raise/calls pre, seems optimal in a game like this. Just my own two cents, like I said, I can appreciate you analysis of the spot.

Don't see agree with this logic, sorry. There's a difference between being in unfamiliar situations and intentionally putting yourself in a disadvantage. In my mind poker is about pursuing spots where you have an edge...

You've ceded 2 of the 3 advantages in poker (Position, Range, Skill). I've made this mistake enough times to learn that I might as well go play slots or blackjack because this is a long-term losing play. You're out of position every street, with a weaker range and less information than your opponent.

 

[JMC9389]

I we do bet turn, I think we are telling a story that we have AA beat here. We are saying "we know you might well have an overpair, and we are not afraid of it." As others have pointed out, this narrows our range considerably but I think we still have many combinations of: KT (suited + non), QJ (suited and non), Q9s, QQ, JJ, 99, T8s. These are all holdings that villain would not be surprised to see in my hand and has to give me some credit for. I think we have enough value hands that we can represent something stronger than 1 pair here credibly. What do you think?

It depends on villain's table image at this point. Are they a sticky LAG that will stick around with an overpair or a pair of queens or jacks? Or are they more TAG or a loose, passive calling station?

The stickier the villain, the more I'm betting here.

 

[Senzrock]

Don't see agree with this logic, sorry. There's a difference between being in unfamiliar situations and intentionally putting yourself in a disadvantage. In my mind poker is about pursuing spots where you have an edge...

You've ceded 2 of the 3 advantages in poker (Position, Range, Skill). I've made this mistake enough times to learn that I might as well go play slots or blackjack because this is a long-term losing play. You're out of position every street, with a weaker range and less information than your opponent.

Agree with much of this, however in addition (or related to) to a skill advantage, I think that aggression at the lower stakes can count for a lot. In looking over previous strategy threads on here (thinking specifically of this interesting recent one here: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/tough-spot-with-aa-utg.68819/), you will find that players are CONSTANTLY looking for reasons to fold their overpairs to big action on flop/turns/rivers (nevermind all three streets!).

 

[Senzrock]

It depends on villain's table image at this point. Are they a sticky LAG that will stick around with an overpair or a pair of queens or jacks? Or are they more TAG or a loose, passive calling station?

The stickier the villain, the more I'm betting here.

I think these are all good points. We have to believe that villain is capable of folding an overpair at some point. Some players we know are incapable of this. In this specific situation, player is capable I believe, but definitely will have to feel the heat!

 

[Senzrock]

I know @Ben8257 for example is snap folding this flop when he holds AA

 

[Senzrock]

I know this isn't PLO but @Anthony Martino will probably will have something to say about how I played this spot

 

[Kain8]

Definitely check/call again. If he's drawing with clubs or the same straight draw, we want them to keep betting.

If they check behind, free river to re-evaluate on. Only thing that really "puts us to the test" is if the villain bombs the turn. But that doesn't really make much sense if they do that since they had an opportunity on the flop to 3-bet.

 

[Senzrock]

Definitely check/call again. If he's drawing with clubs or the same straight draw, we want them to keep betting.

If they check behind, free river to re-evaluate on. Only thing that really "puts us to the test" is if the villain bombs the turn. But that doesn't really make much sense if they do that since they had an opportunity on the flop to 3-bet.

Agreed! If they smooth called my flop CR, then a turn bomb doesn't make a ton of sense (possible with just a few combos of sets or maybe AKcc that smells weakness on me).

 

[Hammer517]

Agree with much of this, however in addition (or related to) to a skill advantage, I think that aggression at the lower stakes can count for a lot. In looking over previous strategy threads on here (thinking specifically of this interesting recent one here: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/tough-spot-with-aa-utg.68819/), you will find that players are CONSTANTLY looking for reasons to fold their overpairs to big action on flop/turns/rivers (nevermind all three streets!).

I hear what you're saying, but what I failed to mention is that Position is this most important of the advantages. Even with a skill advantage you

Agree with much of this, however in addition (or related to) to a skill advantage, I think that aggression at the lower stakes can count for a lot. In looking over previous strategy threads on here (thinking specifically of this interesting recent one here: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/tough-spot-with-aa-utg.68819/), you will find that players are CONSTANTLY looking for reasons to fold their overpairs to big action on flop/turns/rivers (nevermind all three streets!).

I think you're underestimating just how uphill you're climbing from pre-flop. What range do you have villain 3-betting you with? What range of hands does he call the check-raised flop with?

Agreed! If they smooth called my flop CR, then a turn bomb doesn't make a ton of sense (possible with just a few combos of sets or maybe AKcc that smells weakness on me).

I'm confused. What range of hands do you estimate Villain to be 3betting you preflop? What range do you have him calling your flop check raise with? If he bets turn what would the plan behind a call be? Are you hoping to bluff in event no K,Q,T,8 comes? Every other card is bad for you.

 

[Senzrock]

I hear what you're saying, but what I failed to mention is that Position is this most important of the advantages. Even with a skill advantage you

Agreed, this is the toughest hill to climb.

I think you're underestimating just how uphill you're climbing from pre-flop. What range do you have villain 3-betting you with? What range of hands does he call the check-raised flop with?

The combination of the 3bet pre and the flat of the CR on the flop puts his range at: AA, AK, KK, AQ, QQ, JJ, KJs, TT and various hands with clubs. I think his range is heavily weighted to strong one-pairs (AA/KK specifically) along with very strong draws like AKcc

I'm confused. What range of hands do you estimate Villain to be 3betting you preflop? What range do you have him calling you flop check raise with? If he bets turn what would the plan behind a call be? Are you hoping to bluff in event no K,Q,T,8 comes? Every other card is bad for you.

See above range. I'm hoping to semi-bluff him off several of those 1-pair hands. I agree that if I check turn here and he fires big, it is a bad spot for me. This is part of the reason why I didn't lean to a check-call strategy on the turn following the flop but no spoilers...

 

[Mojo1312]

I have to work in the morning.

 

[boltonguy]

QTo is not in my 6-max UTG opening range let alone calling a 3 bet. Fold pre x 2
As played call flop bet. Still reading.
Villain 3 bets, leads flop and then calls your X/R. I didnt see any reads on him. He is either insane or has AA, KK, JJ, 99 or QQ - I know you block QQ but still possible. I cant see how betting turn isnt lighting money on fire here unless you have some sort of wild read that he is playing like this with AcKc.

 

[Senzrock]

The exciting conclusion... tomorrow morning! Thanks everyone for your thoughtful feedback/input!

 

[davislane]

what was the final turn action?

 

[boltonguy]

The exciting conclusion... tomorrow morning! Thanks everyone for your thoughtful feedback/input!

Definitely an interesting hand. Thanks for sharing. Can’t wait to read that you jammed and he showed pocket threes or something crazy like that.