bergs
Royal Flush
I have a system that I won't delve into here (it's over on the blue board somewhere) that includes guard play quality, having Jr & Sr guards, having tourney experience both at player and coaching positions, relative matchups (size / speed / emphasize offense vs defense) and Free Throw shooting percentage. This system has helped me pick winners for 24 years.
This year, for the first time, there are NO obvious plays using my system. I struggled mightily with this and ended up with a collection of tepid picks that were, at best 55/45 propositions. Then, while looking at the Valpo/Maryland line and wishing that I had a few extra points on the Valpo side because Maryland shoots so well from the FT line, I had a revelation.
This isn't a straight up bet year.
This is a tease and 1st half bet year.
Why? Here's why:
The system still applies - and it's always been about finding value - we just need to tweak it this year given a dearth of easy pick matchups and we'll take advantage of an overabundance of defensive matchups between younger teams untested in the tourney.
Picks to come tonight.
This year, for the first time, there are NO obvious plays using my system. I struggled mightily with this and ended up with a collection of tepid picks that were, at best 55/45 propositions. Then, while looking at the Valpo/Maryland line and wishing that I had a few extra points on the Valpo side because Maryland shoots so well from the FT line, I had a revelation.
This isn't a straight up bet year.
This is a tease and 1st half bet year.
Why? Here's why:
- There are a number of matchups between excellent high defensive pressure teams that don't score well. They'll make runs at the over towards the end of games with free throws, but there is a lot of value in first half O/U bets where the first half is at or close to half the total - particularly if one or both teams don't have any tournament experience - these teams will come out tight and score less in the first half as they feel each other out in a slow tempo, half court set game. Also - most NCAA first round games come in with the under (at least, most games where the lines are below 10 and they fit into the system as wagerable games).
- Teases allow me to get additional points on games where there is a slight FT shooting difference, or games where there are only one negative factor that is moving me towards taking the game but feeling like I'm making a substandard play. Normally, there aren't a lot of these games - you either love a game via the system or discard a game via the system. There just hasn't historically been an opportunity to make a bunch of tease plays, and even where there was, the teaseable games weren't chronologically close together (and who wants to hit one half a bet at 1:55pm and wait until 11:55p to see if it pays?) This year, there are so many of these teasable games (an unprecedented number) than it's very easy to find chronologically close games to tease and get the extra points for value.
The system still applies - and it's always been about finding value - we just need to tweak it this year given a dearth of easy pick matchups and we'll take advantage of an overabundance of defensive matchups between younger teams untested in the tourney.
Picks to come tonight.
