This is where Bergs posts the NCAA 2017 Locks (1 Viewer)

Thursday? That's like a hundred hours away. Let's look at the play in games and find some more gambooooool (and hopefully value)....

EDIT: Fuck that, these games are horrible.
 
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FRIDAY PLAYS

JAM ATS $200 - Michigan -2 - best game in the first round - 9.5/10
ATS $50 - Witchita State -6 - I don't like giving this many points so it's only a 7/10
ATS $75 - Marquette +1.5 - I may pile more money into this as it's last game on Friday - it's a 8.5/10
Would a Marquette/Wichita State tease be in order?
 
I know you are busy having a great time hosting the BBOTB, but will you keep posting your picks?

I'm shamelessly using them
 
FRIDAY PLAYS

JAM ATS $200 - Michigan -2 - best game in the first round - 9.5/10
ATS $50 - Witchita State -6 - I don't like giving this many points so it's only a 7/10
ATS $75 - Marquette +1.5 - I may pile more money into this as it's last game on Friday - it's a 8.5/10

That's one of the worst beats I've ever seen....sorry Bergs
 
I just joined you in the bad beat club as the biggest mush' in history Elmore and Steve smith just gowdy ed me with ...UCLA hasn't missed a shot in 5 minutes as Hamilton goes in for a bunny layup and misses....Kent st miss. Rebound miss again rebound and into cut it to 17 . I got UCLA -18. They dribble the next 30 seconds with 31 to play....sickening
 
Fear not, gentle reader. I'm back with more locks (maybe, some locks?) for this week. Let's review where we were, lament for a bet, and rejoice in where we're going, which is straight to the bookie to PAY THAAAAT MAAAHHN IZZZ MONNNNEEEEE......

Thursday action:
Notre Dame (-2) & Virginia (-3) Tease: Notre Dame came in exactly on the number winning 60-58 when Notre Dame missed a free throw to cover with 1 second left on the clock. Virginia gave us the push by covering the tease (they would not have covered ATS with a 5 point win 76-71). Heartbreaker of an ending in the ND game to start with. 0-0-1 and an ominous beginning with the rare push.

In the next game, we bet Winthrop ATS (+11) and lost the bet by a heartbreaking 1 point as they lost 64-76 to Butler. 0-1-1 and we're stil looking for our first win.

We loved Iowa State at a teased -1.5 and Vermont at +13, and were happy to see Iowa State win handily by 11 and Vermont squeak under our tease with a 70-80 loss to a stronger than expected Purdue team. Score one for the good guys. 1-1-1.

Eastern Tennessee State got throttled - no tease would've helped these guys - and we end up 1-2-1.

In the late game, Dunk City (Florida Gulf Coast) gives FSU a tough game and loses by 6. We had them ATS at +12. 2-2-1. Fairly good Thursday - change 3 seconds and we're 4-1. Let's move to Friday.

Friday action:
On Friday, we started with Michigan -2 ATS. I loved this game. Right up until the last half second of the game when, down 4, Oklahoma State hit a garbage 3 pointer, and we lost the bet by 1, 92-91. This was seriously heartbreaking. I haven't lost a game in this fashion that I bet a substantial amount on in a few years. Just ruined the entire day, basically. We're back to 2-3-1.

Wichita State was another game I loved. I usually don't take favorites in the first 2 rounds ATS over a 2 point spread, but Dayton is just bad. The Shockers were favored by 6, and we ended up winning by exactly that, dodging a loss with another 35 foot useless trey from Dayton down 6 with 6 seconds left that clanged off the back of the rim. 2-3-2 is our record, and we need to win the late game with Marquette.

I liked Marquette alot in this game. Didn't love them like the other two games, but Marquette's only weakness is a tendency to get sloppy with the ball at times, but South Carolina is hardly Press Virginia. That said, the Gamecockcs put on a credible imitation of a 1994 Arkansas "40 minutes of hell" and won handily 90-70. We're 2-4-2 and stuck for the first time in 15 years after 2 days.

Saturday action:
We make a big bet on Butler on Saturday, facing an overrated Cinderella prospect in Middle Tennessee State. Our line is 2 points after we buy the hook from the posted line of 2.5, and we win easily as Butler coasts 74-65.

Our big bet of the weekend (to this point) is Iowa State. It's the only other game we're betting on Saturday and we drop a bomb on it.

And Iowa State goes down 19 points in the first half. I honestly stopped watching this one....but just when you thought we were out, they pulllllllllll you back in! Iowa State makes a charge! GO CYCLONES! 3-4-2 and about to get even!!

......And fizzes at the end losing by 4. They had the game tied with less than 26 seconds left and just literally fell apart like a wet gambling pamphlet. Now we're 3-5-2 and our lonely eyes and light wallets turn to Sunday.

Sunday's One Big Fucking Game:
We need what every gambler craves. One. Big. Fucking. Game. And we find our prospect in UCLA. That's right boys and girls, we're going to bet a small, economical, yet suprisingly spry car on the Bruins. They're giving just 3 points against a Cincinnati team that I watched a few times this year and was never impressed by. They win easily, 79-67, and we're 4-5-2, but more importantly, we're up 1/8th of a bet.

Now what? Well, we could shut it down and claim that we're up for the 16th consecutive year, but that would be like Teddie Ballgame sitting out the last day of the season hitting .401. That's not our style - that's not how we play cricket. We're going to KEEP FIRING.

Thursday Sweet 16 Moneymakers:
On Thursday, we like 2 games - both teases, because I've learned my fucking lesson with the heartbreaking ATS last second losses. It gets increasingly hard to bet these games every year as the smaller conferences get more respect and more stats become available to even the casual small-time bettors...so we need to use the last tool in our gambling toolbox, which is to buy points (so we don't lose by a half point - called the hook) and find teases that we like so we can artificially inflate lines our favor.

Here's my Thursday plays.

EARLY - betting $200 on Michigan +3 & West Virginia +7.5 teaser - Michigan has that UCONN look from 3 years ago - they just feel like a team that is peaking at the right time. Happy to get points here, particularly because they're one of the top 10 free throw shooting teams in NCAA Division I, and they're facing an Oregon team that has some depth problems due to injuries. West Virginia getting 7+ points is just a dream. They're never going to be that far out of a game with their defensive pressure, and Gonzaga really hasn't played anyone substantial in the last 2 months.

LATE - betting $100 on Purdue +9 & Arionza -3.5 teaser. Kansas has always struggled in the Sweet 16, even when they advance. Purdue is like Michigan - solid team, good bench rotation, firing on all cylinders. I think Kansas wins, but 9 points against the Boilermakers is going to be a real stretch. Xaiver is a 13 loss team for a reason. They have periods where they just fall asleep, and you can't do that against an explosive Arizona team. Arizona wins this game by close to double digits.
 
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