bergs
Royal Flush
So I've posted similar threads the last 2 years here and 4-5 years prior to that over on the Failed Blue Wall, but I wanted to take a moment to share the BERG PLAYRIGHT system for the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tourney. I'll post my locks on the Tuesday after Selection Sunday (March 12th is Selection Sunday, and March 14th is Tuesday after).
What do we look for in NCAA tournament games when wagering? The answer is "A lot". The first thing you need to do is pay the $9.99 for the month of March for an ESPN Insider membership. This will pay for itself on your first wager. We're going to use it extensively.
What's next? We evaluate games and cull out those that we know we're not going to give action on. Specifically:
- Any game involving a 1 seed - throw it out. We don't want it.
- Any game with a spread of more than 15 points - get rid of it. Very difficult to determine how these games will go.
You're going to be left with about 25 of the 32 games slated for the first round. Now we want to fire up ESPN Insider and start doing our homework.
1) Evaluate all of the teams that shoot 67% or less from the line. You might bet on their game, but you'll be betting on the other guys. These teams are TORTUROUS to watch in the last 2 minutes of the game when they're barely covering but start clanging free throws. You don't want to bet on teams that build houses from all their charity stripe bricks. Cross them off.
2) Evaluate all of the starting guards on the remaining teams. Circle the ones that have freshman and sophomore guards. I'm not saying that we're crossing them off, but we're going to need some pretty compelling reasons to bet on them. You want 3 year starters in your backcourt. Turnovers will kill you stone dead in the Tournament.
3) Evaluate those teams that are playing in the tournament for the first time in more than 3 years. Put a square around them. We *might* be wagering on them, but if they also have freshman or sophomore guards and you circled them before, you can cross them off now. Two strikes and you're out in the wagering business.
4) Evaluate the head coaches - do they have tournament experience? Put an asterisk next to the ones that don't have any tournament experience in the last 5 years. If you're putting an asterisk next to a team that has a circle around it, cross them off. It's bad enough having inexperienced guards bringing the ball up the court in a tight game in the Tournament - when they jog to the sideline during a timeout, you want a coach that has been there before to calm them down and get them to manage the game.
You're going to be left with about 8 teams. These are the teams we're going to look at more carefully.
Firstly - what's the line? I love, love, love, love the games where one of our remaining teams is a 3-7 point dog playing against a "known" school. Here's an example from last year:
https://www.pokerchipforum.com/thre...-posts-the-ncaa-2016-locks.11076/#post-164741
LOCK OF THE DAY: Northern Iowa +5 versus Texas. NI shoots 10% better from the FT line, doesn't turn the ball over much, has 2 senior guards that run the team, a tournament tested coach and squad who won their opening game in the tournament last year, and they beat North Carolina, Iowa State, and Wichita State this year. They've also won 6 of their last 7. Texas starting center is hurt and hopes to play 15-20 minutes, and Texas is 1-4 in their last 5 NCAA tournament games. Texas also has a rookie coach. Love love love Northern Iowa here.
Northern Iowa won the game on the floor 75-72.
Secondly - what's the trend? As indicated above, you want a team that is playing well going into the tournament - don't worry so much about their conference tournament - you want to look at their last 4-6 games in the regular season. If they limped into the Tournament, it's probably for a good reason (stopped listening to the coach, injuries, etc). If they're playing well heading into their conference tournament, then they have the momentum they need to make a run in the Big Dance.
Thirdly - what's the rest of the story? Are there injuries on either team? Any drama in the news about critical players? A lot of people make bets purely on this kind of information, but this sort of thing is largely irrelevant to us if the game doesn't fit our parameters.
Lastly - take note of the teaser opportunities. Say you find two teams that fit the desired profile but the lines are +2 and even. Don't forget that you can tease these two teams and work those lines up to +6 and +4 (or higher if you want to pay more juice).
The teasers are particularly important given that the media pays more attention and gives more credence to the schools from the smaller conferences now. Back in the days of the Big East and the other Major conferences, the teams from smaller conferences never got wagered on because they were considered second class squads. As a result, the lines were better and it was easier to make money on them. You didn't have to tease two of them to work the line to the +4 or +5 that we want. Nowadays everyone knows about the Vermont Catamounts and the Wichita State Shockers so we have to get creative to work playable lines.
Remember, a lot of these games come down to free throws in the first round. It's upset city and even the teams that are supposed to win don't win by much. Everyone is playing tight and the younger teams (even from the big schools like Kentucky) are nervous. You could do passably well betting just on senior guards and good FT shooters and ignoring everything else, but there is a wealth of information out there. Use it to your advantage and focus on making anywhere from 2-5 really good big plays on Thursday and Friday and you'll do well.
Good luck! Look for my picks next Tuesday.
What do we look for in NCAA tournament games when wagering? The answer is "A lot". The first thing you need to do is pay the $9.99 for the month of March for an ESPN Insider membership. This will pay for itself on your first wager. We're going to use it extensively.
What's next? We evaluate games and cull out those that we know we're not going to give action on. Specifically:
- Any game involving a 1 seed - throw it out. We don't want it.
- Any game with a spread of more than 15 points - get rid of it. Very difficult to determine how these games will go.
You're going to be left with about 25 of the 32 games slated for the first round. Now we want to fire up ESPN Insider and start doing our homework.
1) Evaluate all of the teams that shoot 67% or less from the line. You might bet on their game, but you'll be betting on the other guys. These teams are TORTUROUS to watch in the last 2 minutes of the game when they're barely covering but start clanging free throws. You don't want to bet on teams that build houses from all their charity stripe bricks. Cross them off.
2) Evaluate all of the starting guards on the remaining teams. Circle the ones that have freshman and sophomore guards. I'm not saying that we're crossing them off, but we're going to need some pretty compelling reasons to bet on them. You want 3 year starters in your backcourt. Turnovers will kill you stone dead in the Tournament.
3) Evaluate those teams that are playing in the tournament for the first time in more than 3 years. Put a square around them. We *might* be wagering on them, but if they also have freshman or sophomore guards and you circled them before, you can cross them off now. Two strikes and you're out in the wagering business.
4) Evaluate the head coaches - do they have tournament experience? Put an asterisk next to the ones that don't have any tournament experience in the last 5 years. If you're putting an asterisk next to a team that has a circle around it, cross them off. It's bad enough having inexperienced guards bringing the ball up the court in a tight game in the Tournament - when they jog to the sideline during a timeout, you want a coach that has been there before to calm them down and get them to manage the game.
You're going to be left with about 8 teams. These are the teams we're going to look at more carefully.
Firstly - what's the line? I love, love, love, love the games where one of our remaining teams is a 3-7 point dog playing against a "known" school. Here's an example from last year:
https://www.pokerchipforum.com/thre...-posts-the-ncaa-2016-locks.11076/#post-164741
LOCK OF THE DAY: Northern Iowa +5 versus Texas. NI shoots 10% better from the FT line, doesn't turn the ball over much, has 2 senior guards that run the team, a tournament tested coach and squad who won their opening game in the tournament last year, and they beat North Carolina, Iowa State, and Wichita State this year. They've also won 6 of their last 7. Texas starting center is hurt and hopes to play 15-20 minutes, and Texas is 1-4 in their last 5 NCAA tournament games. Texas also has a rookie coach. Love love love Northern Iowa here.
Northern Iowa won the game on the floor 75-72.
Secondly - what's the trend? As indicated above, you want a team that is playing well going into the tournament - don't worry so much about their conference tournament - you want to look at their last 4-6 games in the regular season. If they limped into the Tournament, it's probably for a good reason (stopped listening to the coach, injuries, etc). If they're playing well heading into their conference tournament, then they have the momentum they need to make a run in the Big Dance.
Thirdly - what's the rest of the story? Are there injuries on either team? Any drama in the news about critical players? A lot of people make bets purely on this kind of information, but this sort of thing is largely irrelevant to us if the game doesn't fit our parameters.
Lastly - take note of the teaser opportunities. Say you find two teams that fit the desired profile but the lines are +2 and even. Don't forget that you can tease these two teams and work those lines up to +6 and +4 (or higher if you want to pay more juice).
The teasers are particularly important given that the media pays more attention and gives more credence to the schools from the smaller conferences now. Back in the days of the Big East and the other Major conferences, the teams from smaller conferences never got wagered on because they were considered second class squads. As a result, the lines were better and it was easier to make money on them. You didn't have to tease two of them to work the line to the +4 or +5 that we want. Nowadays everyone knows about the Vermont Catamounts and the Wichita State Shockers so we have to get creative to work playable lines.
Remember, a lot of these games come down to free throws in the first round. It's upset city and even the teams that are supposed to win don't win by much. Everyone is playing tight and the younger teams (even from the big schools like Kentucky) are nervous. You could do passably well betting just on senior guards and good FT shooters and ignoring everything else, but there is a wealth of information out there. Use it to your advantage and focus on making anywhere from 2-5 really good big plays on Thursday and Friday and you'll do well.
Good luck! Look for my picks next Tuesday.
