Sketchy, or just swingy? (1 Viewer)

[Taghkanic]

If you’re like me, and you try to be vigilant in watching for anything crooked in private poker games, you’ve probably found it hard to draw the line between what’s actually sketchy and what’s just normal swingy variance.

Below are several situations from a game I’ve now played in several times—which concern me enough as part of a pattern to consider dropping this game from my circuit of local private games.

I would not normally assume something is off if I had not seen these types of coolers and/or bizarre play happen in clusters every time I’ve played there.

Compared to other games I play in, these come very regularly at this game, rather than just once in a while.

I’ll put one hand in each subsequent post.

 

[Taghkanic]

Hand #1:

This is the first hand of the night.

Both villains are splashy players who play too many hands and are not afraid to put their stacks in.

8BB raise and a call preflop. Heads up.

Flop



Bet 20BB. Raise 60BB. All in, call.

Players show and .

Flopped top/bottom pair vs middle/bottom pair.

So after one hand we already have a rebuy and a 2x stack on the table. Dealer gets 10BB tip.

I think it is notable that this is the first hand, as I have noticed that a lot of the big hands occur shortly after a dealer switch.

 

[LowerBama1714]

Did you witness a wash/shuffle before play began?…

 

[upNdown]

I have noticed that a lot of the big hands occur shortly after a dealer switch.

So do you suspect a new dealer is slipping in a cold deck?

 

[Taghkanic]

Hand #2, about an hour later, after a new dealer comes in:

Winner of the hand above straddles. He is quite loose, and often bets 3-5x if others limp vs his straddle.

Player A raises it 16BB from the LoJack. This is a tight, aggressive player.

Player B calls, another TAG (tighter than A).

Player C (loser of the first hand) overcalls. He is the loosest of the three so far.

Now more than 50BB in the pit preflop.

Player D (the straddler) tank-shoves for about 80BB.

A instafolds. B tank-calls. C tank-folds.

Flop .

Player B: Ohh, that’s good for me

Player D: No it’s not. Shows for flopped straight.

Turn brick.

River

B turns over for rivered flush. Says “I knew you shoved light, but I didn’t think you were THAT light.” D shrugs, rebuys.

Another big tip.

 

[Jimulacrum]

So is the suspicion that the dealer is somehow intentionally dealing hands that will produce big action because it generates more tips? That is, it's not the same person catching the wins every time (which might indicate the dealer favoring a certain player), but just the tips?

I find that a pretty tough sell off the bat. Even tougher when the openers are A9o and K9s, or 25o and JTs.

Dealers in games with maniacs tend to get good tips because maniacs turn nothing-special hands where they should have folded preflop into "coolers."

 

[varoadstter]

I'd need a lot bigger sample size to personally get concerned. I get that these are just examples. If your Spidey senses are tingling, though, there nothing wrong with purposefully logging these in your mind for a bit to see what you think after getting some more corroboration.

 

[Taghkanic]

Hand #3: Much the same cast of characters.

A opens to 10BB.

B calls.

C and D overcall.

Flop

A leads out with pot-sized bet.

B goes in tank, then shoves for approx. 150BB

C tank-folds

D tank folds

A and B dicker about how many times to run it, and settle on 3 times.

A turns over , flopped set.

B has , nut straight.

Board 1: x
Board 2: x
Board 3: x

Player A makes his boat all three times.

 

[JMC9389]

That first hand sounds like a standard cooler. Hand #2 sounds a lot more suspect off the bat. Who TF is shoving with 2/5 offsuit with a large raise and a call from two tight players ahead of them?

Edit: These hands all happened in one session? Alarm bells are going off after hand #3 if that's the case if I'm watching what's happening.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'd need a lot bigger sample size to personally get concerned. I get that these are just examples. If your Spidey senses are tingling, though, there nothing wrong with purposefully logging these in your mind for a bit to see what you think after getting some more corroboration.

Despite my skepticism, I will always support this.

If you've been playing poker a long time—especially successfully—your instincts are a good barometer in and of themselves.

Maybe the raw hand data doesn't paint the same picture you're seeing, which may include some questionable speech, body language, or other cues that would make an attentive player suspicious.

 

[LowerBama1714]

Hand #3: Much the same cast of characters.

A opens to 10BB.

B calls.

C and D overcall.

Flop

A leads out with pot-sized bet.

B goes in tank, then shoves for approx. 150BB

C tank-folds

D tank folds

A and B dicker about how many times to run it, and settle on 3 times.

A turns over , flopped set.

B has , but straight.

Board 1: x
Board 2: x
Board 3: x

Player A makes his boat all three times.

This one seems ok…

 

[Taghkanic]

I wasnt in one of hand, won one of them, lost another.

Again, this is just three hands. But it’s like this all the time there. Never seen so many giant hands in succession, every week, 15+ years of playing poker 1-3 times weekly (minus the pandemic).

Other notes:

Player D just recently returned to the game. He apparently owed the host a lot of money, and also owed Player A. He has won a $1K high hand both weeks since he returned and has settled his debts with those winnings.

 

[LowerBama1714]

Sketchy or swingy…if I get a smarmy vibe, then I can never feel comfortable in a game.

I’d bail…

 

[Jimulacrum]

Player D just recently returned to the game. He apparently owed the host a lot of money, and also owed Player A. He has won a $1K high hand both weeks since he returned and has settled his debts with those winnings.

The specifics of the hands you've listed aren't that crazy to me. These things happen. It's not the same player winning every time.

But this factor of the debt, combined with the bigger picture and the spidey-sense feeling that something is off, would probably be enough for me to rack up and never come back.

Gambling debts make bad things happen. Never lend or borrow for gambling.

 

[JMC9389]

The specifics of the hands you've listed aren't that crazy to me. These things happen. It's not the same player winning every time.

But this factor of the debt, combined with the bigger picture and the spidey-sense feeling that something is off, would probably be enough for me to rack up and never come back.

Gambling debts make bad things happen. Never lend or borrow for gambling.

What bothers me is that the dealer may be a mechanic that is manufacturing big pots for more/bigger tips as you initially suggested.

 

[Taghkanic]

Player A was involved with another bizarre situation in a game two weeks ago.

Until this happened, the house had a bad beat jackpot that had not hit for ***three years*** and got up to more than 1200BB.

The host slowly ratchets down the qualifying hands each week to make it more possible to hit. Started at quads beat, but had gotten all the way down to KKK99 beat.

Player E has K9. Player A has AA.

Flop . Checks through turn. River .

Player A, stupidly, leads the river for 25BB.

Player E tanks. Turns over his KKK99 hand. Some murmurs go around the table but no one mentions the bad beat potential specifically. Player A is making a face but doesn’t say bad beat.

Player E ***folds***.

Player A screams as he shows his AA and berates himself for betting.

The table erupts, demanding to know why E folded. E claims he thought A had AA or AK but “forgot” about the 1200BB bad beat.

Mayhem ensues. Host tries to settle everyone down but it just keeps going. Host finally gets mad and announces he’s canceling the bad beat entirely and will put the money accumulated into future high hands.

Player D comes back to the game the next two weeks after a long absence and wins the high hand both times, settling his debts.

All could be random. Feels berserk to me.

 

[KHarp1]

I'm not seeing anything other than a couple of degen gamblers that play rags. When you factor in the randomness of a 52 deck shuffle, and, cards that come out, any combination of those 52 cards should be expected. Playing quality cards is what most people anticipate, but, those rag cards have the same opportunity to appear as the premiums. There are quite a few players that love playing those rags and love wrecking your "premium" hands. I'm not sure i can read conspiracy theory into that.

 

[Taghkanic]

The specifics of the hands you've listed aren't that crazy to me. These things happen. It's not the same player winning every time.

But this factor of the debt, combined with the bigger picture and the spidey-sense feeling that something is off, would probably be enough for me to rack up and never come back.

Gambling debts make bad things happen. Never lend or borrow for gambling.

I agree that on their own, the hands are all quite possible.

The second hand was the one that sent my radar pinging at top volume (guy shoving preflop with 25o into two TAGs and one LAG for a size that is sure to get at least one call, flopping a double gutted straight, then losing to a flush. I won that one BTW.)

I’ve seen lots of one-outers etc. in legit rooms. It happens.

It’s the regularity of the fireworks that makes me wonder.

My inclination is to not go back even if there is only a 15% chance of shenanigans. I don’t want to spend all my attention watching dealers etc.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Definitely a lot of smoke. We trust your judgement, especially right as a dealer changes, I'd be watching like a hawk for a switch/cold deck scenario. That's most common cheating that I've seen; no bending cards or contact lenses, just a stacked deck introduced in some way. Some people just get bored and cheat these scenarios for thrills, others do it to settle debts/get tips/whatever.

Hand #2, did no one say WTF when Player D shoved 80bbs with 52? Lol its confusing, was the deck meant to help him and so he shoved knowing the runout would be favorable...and the other guy hits a flush on him cause the cheater sucks? Bananas.

 

[Taghkanic]

Did you witness a wash/shuffle before play began?…

No washes seen. Hands are shuffled (badly) by players on the button, then are supposed to be shuffled again and cut by the dealer. I confess to not watching their mechanics closely enough.

If there were something fishy, I think it would have to be in the form of decks brought in as dealers rotate. None of this game’s cast of dealers appears sharp enough to stack decks in-game.

 

[Taghkanic]

Hand #2, did no one say WTF when Player D shoved 80bbs with 52? Lol it’s confusing, was the deck meant to help him and so he shoved knowing the runout would be favorable...and the other guy hits a flush on him cause the cheater sucks? Bananas.

I did.

I don’t think the action is calculated to favor any one player, if it is rigged at all, except maybe the high hands to get the host back his debts? Speculative I know.

The point would be just to create lots of action, resulting in rebuys (more $$$ on the table, bigger tips).

 

[RocAFella1]

Who handles the shuffling and are there two decks on the table?

 

[Taghkanic]

Edit: These hands all happened in one session? Alarm bells are going off after hand #3 if that's the case if I'm watching what's happening.

Yes, all the same session. But I’ve seen similar stuff the prior two times.

For example Player D called down with 35s on a terrifying board, with lots of betting multi-way on all streets, to catch a gutshot straight flush on the river.

Again, it happens. But I think I can’t continue in a game once my suspicions are up like this, it stops being fun and I can’t play properly while monitoring every shuffle and pitch. Entirely possible that I am too paranoid, but I can switch to another game without a lot of trouble.

 

[Taghkanic]

Who handles the shuffling and are there two decks on the table?

Two decks in play. Button shuffles, dealer reshuffles and cuts. Don’t recall seeing any washes.

 

[RocAFella1]

dealer reshuffles

Why is this necessary?

 

[JMC9389]

Why is this necessary?

This raises an eyebrow for me. This makes no sense.

 

[Taghkanic]

P.S. The host is someone I like a lot. We have socialized outside of poker, etc. Possible I’m overthinking, or that any funny business is among the dealers. (Actually, all of the hands mentioned above were dealt by the same guy IIRC. Nice guy, family man.)

But then isn’t that precisely how and when you get conned?

 

[Taghkanic]

Why is this necessary?

I think because a lot of the players suck at shuffling or even sometimes just forget to do it.

The deck sits on a big dealer button in front of the player... Then there’s generally just a couple additional dealer riffles and cuts, in most home games with dealers around here.

 

[JustinInMN]

Hand #1:

This is the first hand of the night.

Both villains are splashy players who play too many hands and are not afraid to put their stacks in.

8BB raise and a call preflop. Heads up.

Flop



Bet 20BB. Raise 60BB. All in, call.

Players show and .

Flopped top/bottom pair vs middle/bottom pair.

So after one hand we already have a rebuy and a 2x stack on the table. Dealer gets 10BB tip.

I think it is notable that this is the first hand, as I have noticed that a lot of the big hands occur shortly after a dealer switch.

Absolutely wouldn't raise an eyebrow at this as a one-off.

Hand #2, about an hour later, after a new dealer comes in:

Winner of the hand above straddles. He is quite loose, and often bets 3-5x if others limp vs his straddle.

Player A raises it 16BB from the LoJack. This is a tight, aggressive player.

Player B calls, another TAG (tighter than A).

Player C (loser of the first hand) overcalls. He is the loosest of the three so far.

Now more than 50BB in the pit preflop.

Player D (the straddler) tank-shoves for about 80BB.

A instafolds. B tank-calls. C tank-folds.

Flop .

Player B: Ohh, that’s good for me

Player D: No it’s not. Shows for flopped straight.

Turn brick.

River

B turns over for rivered flush. Says “I knew you shoved light, but I didn’t think you were THAT light.” D shrugs, rebuys.

Another big tip.

This one doesn't rankle me much either. All D has to do is not shove 52o and avoid the spot. If the dealer were controlling the cards and trying make D into the patsy on this one, why would he deal 52o? This would be more believable as a setup if the straight held up. But really I just see bad players playing bad but someone has to win here.

Hand #3: Much the same cast of characters.

A opens to 10BB.

B calls.

C and D overcall.

Flop

A leads out with pot-sized bet.

B goes in tank, then shoves for approx. 150BB

C tank-folds

D tank folds

A and B dicker about how many times to run it, and settle on 3 times.

A turns over , flopped set.

B has , but straight.

Board 1: x
Board 2: x
Board 3: x

Player A makes his boat all three times.

This one does strike me as unlikely. But with two cards to come, A is only about a 2:1 dog here on a single runout. So, I would approximate his odds of winning all 3 runouts to be 33% to the third power, or about 3.6%. In fact, the probability is slightly less because to win all three A would lose at least one helpful card on each runout. But it wouldn't make enough difference to calculate precisely. Suffice to say, for the sake of comparison, the approximation is close enough that it would compare to catching between a 1-outer or a 2-outer with one card to come. Would also compare to the same odds as a backdoor flush draw. These things happen often enough, I don't think the odds alone make this suspicious either.

Absent any observational evidence on the dealer's movements, I don't think any of these hands on their own are that outside the realm of normal "swingy-ness" in the vernacular of this thread title. It also makes me less likely to believe there are issues given there are apparently different winners every time.

 

[Jimulacrum]

P.S. The host is someone I like a lot. We have socialized outside of poker, etc. Possible I’m overthinking, or that any funny business is among the dealers. (Actually, all of the hands mentioned above were dealt by the same guy IIRC. Nice guy, family man.)

But then isn’t that precisely how and when you get conned?

The cheat I caught back in 2020 was "good friends" with most of the people he cheated and had known them for 10+ years.

In fact, I think one of them had just spent a week at his vacation home in Florida.

People who steal and cheat have no compunctions about engaging in fake friendships to enable their theft and cheating.

Not saying this is true of this host, but one of the things that makes these acts so dastardly is that they tend to gain your confidence to cheat you, as opposed to a standard pickpocket or scammer, who makes no such pretense.