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In the money. Drunk shoved 36 off on an A83 flop and rivered a 6 against the other chip leader who had AQ

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Got a chance to harvest more chips tonight and make some $ in the process. We got shorthanded earlier than usual which was OK. Key hand of the evening. I'm in the straddle with K7. We see a flop of K97hh. This guy leads into me for 25ish and I had raised him multiple times and you could tell he was annoyed so naturally I did it again and made it 125. He ships it for 1.2k. I call. He rolls over TT.

Sorry for the shitty picture....

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Terrible 1/2 session tonight where I started ok but then went crazy card dead. Very few playable hands, no good spots to steal much, and I whiffed at least three flopped combo draws (and semi-bluffed into calling stations with two of them - DON'T DO THAT).

I was -$350 at my worst point. Finally picked up a flush and a better boat in two hands vs the same player, dug myself barely out of the hole, then fell into it again for a while.

Near the end of the session, I picked up JJ in EP, raised $10 and got three callers. Flop 743r, I bet $25, monkey aggro V1 makes it $75, two folds, and I shove for about $200 effective. V goes into the tank, staring me down and trying to decide. He says, "How did that flop make your hand?" I'm pretty sure he's expecting strong = weak (since that's basically everybody at 1/2), so I respond with, "Maybe I didn't need the flop to make my hand."

He SNAPS, the board runs out queen rag, and my jacks are good. One orbit later it's 3am and I'm out of there with a little unexpected profit after a long night of being stuck. In for $500, out for $650.

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Finally get to add a little something to this collection :)
286824

$2-100 SL, in for $400, out for $712. Couldn't connect with anything, then questionably got it all-in preflop with QQ against what I was 99% sure was AA. I was right but didn't matter when I spiked a Q on the river for a $350 double-up :) who needs good laydowns when you can just get lucky instead.

Question: How sure do you have to be that villain has AA to lay down QQ preflop?
 
Question: How sure do you have to be that villain has AA to lay down QQ preflop?
Assuming 2-100 SL plays similarly to 1/2 NL, if villain limp reraises, there's an 88.3% chance that your queens are no good. If villain is 60+ and has a cup of coffee in front of him, the odds go up to 98.35%.

Trust me, I've run the numbers in Flopzilla and they're accurate.
 
Assuming 2-100 SL plays similarly to 1/2 NL, if villain limp reraises, there's an 88.3% chance that your queens are no good. If villain is 60+ and has a cup of coffee in front of him, the odds go up to 98.35%.

Trust me, I've run the numbers in Flopzilla and they're accurate.

My solver says that if villain is an OMC then the odds go up to 103.82%
 
Assuming 2-100 SL plays similarly to 1/2 NL, if villain limp reraises, there's an 88.3% chance that your queens are no good.
I spose action is important here, I open to 8 in UTG+1 with QQ, villain raises to 20 in lojack, folds back to me, I raise to 70, villain max raises to 170 and starts repeating "there's no shame in folding", I tank and eventually pop to 270, and quickly is all in.

If you had laid it down, would it differ to you if you had KK instead?
Insta call with KK, cuz as it was I was pretty sure it was AA, but KK was also possibility.
 
10/20?

What runs during the week? I'll be in town at the end of the month and wasn't sure what woukd be available midweek.
We play 10-20 with a UG straddle usually 20-40 once it gets going. $100 bomb pots for time. Game goes every Wednesday and usually all weekend Friday to Sunday. Game plays pretty big and there’s some gamble for sure. Great group of regs and amateurs with deep pockets and the best game in the midwest. Most everyone sits with 5-10k but sometimes more. If you’re gonna come play ask around for me or send me a PM.

There’s also a 2-5 but it’s a $500 cap and super lame in my opinion. The 5-10 runs everyday too which is nice. 2k cap on that one. But like I said the 10-20 is where it’s at.
 
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It might be slow or might not run because most of us will be in Vegas in and out for the series so not sure about end of the month but I’d bet it still runs. Might be softer since most of the good players will be in Vegas.
 
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Finally get to add a little something to this collection :)
View attachment 286824
$2-100 SL, in for $400, out for $712. Couldn't connect with anything, then questionably got it all-in preflop with QQ against what I was 99% sure was AA. I was right but didn't matter when I spiked a Q on the river for a $350 double-up :) who needs good laydowns when you can just get lucky instead.

Question: How sure do you have to be that villain has AA to lay down QQ preflop?


65%. In the aggregate folding QQ pre flop is not profitable but you’d be surprised how many times you’ll lose your stack with queens or jacks. I treat queens and jacks like pocket 7s honestly but I play higher stakes. More often than not you’ll lose a big pot with queens or jacks and win a small one. People overvalue those hands far too often.

Even at the bottom of most people’s 4 bet or even 3 bet ranges you’re up against AK and if you don’t shove and get a clean board you’re not gonna get any value from a hand like that anyways. So If you think about it you’re only getting paid off on queens or jacks on a super wet board where your opponent either has a range advantage, they have a redraw to the nuts, or they’re gonna fold because they came up dry.

Just my opinion but it’s been my experience in folding those kinda hands pre flop. Trusting your instincts is super important if you’re playing optimally. Making bigger folds is a hard lesson to learn but it’s the difference between good players and great players.
 

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