River spot in PLO

xt!

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I was playing PLO last night with an interesting lineup and found myself in an interesting spot.

The first interesting thing is that I was one of the tighter players in the game. There were a couple maniacs and the game was DEEP.

We were six or seven handed at the time

The lineup - EP is a maniac. He will play any four, he is hyper agro on all streets, he likes to 3/4/5 bet pre to isolate against other big stacks or to gamble for stacks vs small stacks. If he decides you have AAxx he is likely to just jam it in and take the worse of the coin flip for the action. He has a couple thousand blinds (uncapped game) He is probably stuck - the game was insane earlier and he was very active in it.

Me MP, playing very tight for me, maybe 25/15ish. I think I three bet once or twice all night and 4/5 bet maybe 3x.
I have 200-300 blinds at the time. Probably in for 350 blinds.

HJ, plays a lot like I do. He's feeling down on his luck and steaming - Had been up early and is stuck at the time. He's playing about 125-150 blinds.

CO and BTN, both local pros, both very good and very tight. Playing about 400-500 blinds each. BTN has a tendency to bet at pots on the river when checked to.



For the hand I am going to fast forward to the river because it is the only interesting spot.

The action, EP pots, because, you know, he has 4 cards.

I call with 7889 or something similar, the 88 is key, and the fact that I do not have any spades or threes.

HJ, CO, and BTN all call.

~20 blinds in the pot

Board runs out 3s4s3c7s8s

EP checks river, I check river, HJ bets ~12 blinds (which is consistent with his value bet sizing - he rarely pots)

HJ and CO fold.

EP pots it for about 55 blinds.

So holding the third nuts in a strange checked down pot facing sudden huge action from action players. WWYD?
 

Ben

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Unless I have some sick read that EP calls off huge stacks to river 3-bets with 27th nuts underfull (not specified in OP - "maniac" doesn't cover that) I'm just calling here. I'm not concerned with HJ - given action he's likely value-betting light (medium flush maybe) and not calling regardless. EP could easily be trying to steal with air but if not, his prior chexk-check is awfully suspicious for a maniac. MAYBE he has an underfull but I just don't see him calling with it facing a cold 3-bet on the river, at least not more pften than he turns over his "slowplayed" quads or straight flush.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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I don't know why "plays like me" means "will stack off with 27th nuts underfull" but I'm cool with it.

Thought you said EP was the maniac and HJ who folded played like you. Would EP stack off with 44 or 77? There are 4 combos of those hands, and just 2 of 33 or 5s6s. I do think there is a non-zero possibility he calls with 38, don't you?
 

DrStrange

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HJ takes the first aggressive action. He might be tight but the illusion of weakness might let him think a good flush deserves a value bet. At this point I'd range him rather wide.

Then EP check raises. We don't know if he is a thinking maniac or not, but I worry when a villain changes pattern. So the fact he check raises rather than lead out the river is mildly alarming.

Hero has the third nut - he is not folding at this point, the options are call or raise. My bias is to call rather than raise. This is not a fear based call it is a greed based call. If Hero check, reraises EP a thinking HJ is likely to become very cautious and fold most of his losers (though he could level himself if he thinks several layers deep). A check call line has a far better chance of capturing an extra 55 blinds from HJ at the expense of making a run at stacking EP. If Hero tells me EP is a chip spewing donkey, I might refocus on getting his stack but for now my eyes are on the 55bb prize from HJ,

A secondary benefit to this line is Hero has some hope of escaping if HJ has quads or a straight flush, but I fear it would be hard to do given how slow hero played his hand. We'll revisit this if HJ takes aggressive action.

DrStrange
 

Mental Nomad

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No, he said it might be as little as a flush, but that at that point he'd "range him rather wide." Lots of better non-nut hands possible. That's why he's angling for chips to win from a HJ overcall.

I think the Doctor nailed it, here.
 

xt!

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In the moment I made the assumption that HJ would call EP's raise with 44/77 and raise with 33/sf, folding everything else. I figured if I 3bet he would fold everything short of quads.

EP is very capable of calling with well less than the nuts if he thinks he has a good price and there is a chance you are making a move.

(once played a hand with him with 4 way action on a KQ2r board, he bets - I call - one all in for less - btn call. Turn T Checks to BTN who bets small - maniac calls - i call. River 2, maniac bets - I shove for about 1/10th of the pot more - he calls. I had KKxx, guy who went ai on the flop had qq2x.)
 

Ben

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One other thing - I think by just calling we also give HJ a chance to spaz out. If we assume that HJ = xt in another body, he may read the situation the same way we do (i.e. he may be value-betting light and maniac has air a lot, hero knows these things and so may be calling with far less than the nuts) so when action comes back to HJ there is some chance he goes for the "superstar play" and turns a Q-high flush or whatever into a bluff. We know EP is a monkey and I have no trouble believing he's the kind of monkey who fires every street EXCEPT when he flops quads, but I just absolutely don't believe that line from HJ. If he repops it and EP folds I'm absolutely snapping him off.
 

xt!

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I raised to 150 blinds - I figured it would look the fishiest vs the maniac. I wasn't really concerned with HJ at that point, I was just looking for a 44 or 77 call from maniac, and he may even call with some type of hand that has nut flush with SF/Quad blockers. I was also planning to fold if he 4-bet it. HJ quickly folds and maniac says "I was bluffing, you can have it" and laughs.

Against other villains it is a very tough spot to be in, with these players it was still my most interesting spot in a couple weeks.
 

Luk_nuts

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As played I just call on the River. Dont see much value in reraising there.

Question: Why dont you bet yourself? I would probably be too scared that it goes checked all the way around.
 

xt!

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My reasoning at the time was: Bc I had two guys behind me that are able to bet light but wont call light and I would have to bet/fold if one of them raised behind me. Not sure if it's the most profitable line all the time, but it appears to have earned me max value that time.
 

Luk_nuts

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Another argument for just calling against the squeeze on the River is that you had a 7 in your hand (or you are not sure?) Makes it less likely that EP has 77 or 37 -> more likely he is bluffing or he's got you beat
 

xt!

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I'm not 100% on my cards. I know I had no 3 or s. I also know I had the type of hand I call an utg raise with from ep in a crazy game... :)
 
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