PAHWM: Q10 in the big blind (1 Viewer)

[JMC9389]

Make a big deal out of the fact that there are two 7c and get your money back. Phew!

I check.

Edited. It paired the board with a 7 but it's a rainbow board.

 

[Taghkanic]

A7s and other 7x now seem like a really small part of an average unknown villain’s range. 55 also very unlikely for the same reason.

Hard to imagine he has a worse Q except maybe Q9s I guess. Then again at low stakes many will play any two suited.

I’d be concerned about better Q combos which dominate you (AQ/KQ/QJ) and could be unsuited, so as many as 16 combos of each. An overcard on the river might help you get to a chop but also brings in two big pairs…

Ideal situation is JJ. He might continue with other nontrips underpairs if he’s a nonbeliever in your passive calls. But there aren’t many obvious draws for you to be chasing so he’s got to think you have a pair+.

I suppose some AK might also get sticky here too.

KK & AA always possible but I would expect him to blast off with those at some point so you could get away.

I’d probably check-call the turn here to keep worse hands in.

(It’s gonna be something else like 65s that rivers a boat, right?)

 

[JMC9389]

What hero is thinking is that 7's are especially unlikely for the villain given another one just came up on the turn. A flopped set of $5's is also possible but extremely unlikely. There's still no reason to believe we're not good here all things considered unless the villain has exactly AQ or QJ. I kind of feel like villain would raise larger if they had suited broadway cards to try and get the players in later action and the limpers out of the way, however. Slowplayed kings and aces are also possible but not really likely. That said now, if the board pairs a second time or a king or ace comes up, hero isn't going to like it very much and it's a sick spot if hero checks and villain bets big on the river. Lots of cards that will come up that are blanks too. A good spot I think to bet for protection as well as for value.

With this in mind, hero opts to lead out with a $5 bet into $6.75. Villain checks his cards and after about two or three seconds flicks in a red chip.

Pot $16.75.

River .

Board

Hero?

 

[krafticus]

What hero is thinking is that 7's are especially unlikely for the villain given another one just came up on the turn. A flopped set of $5's is also possible but extremely unlikely. There's still no reason to believe we're not good here all things considered unless the villain has exactly AQ or QJ. I kind of feel like villain would raise larger if they had suited broadway cards to try and get the players in later action and the limpers out of the way, however. Slowplayed kings and aces are also possible but not really likely. That said now, if the board pairs a second time or a king or ace comes up, hero isn't going to like it very much and it's a sick spot if hero checks and villain bets big on the river. Lots of cards that will come up that are blanks too. A good spot I think to bet for protection as well as for value.

With this in mind, hero opts to lead out with a $5 bet into $6.75. Villain checks his cards and after about two or three seconds flicks in a red chip.

Pot $16.75.

River .

Board

Hero?

I’m overbetting for $20, only to see villain call with KK

 

[Taghkanic]

The call of your turn bet normally might suggest the villain has a bluff-catcher or a draw.

(Might be slowplaying a FH or set, I suppose, but statistically it’s less likely…)

Bluff catchers could be better or worse Qs, a pair lower than a Q, or maybe an overpair that is overlyscared by the 77 on the board.

There aren’t many draws… 64s? 68s? The preflop action should make these unlikely. 34s for a gutshot even less so. 89s? The villain would have to be pretty weak to call the turn bet there.

66 on the flop might have continued thinking it has backdoor ways to improve, I suppose.

Not sure that Hero can do more than check-call the river. Maybe a small blocker bet, but a counter-argument would be to check to get weaker hands to put more money in. I just don’t see that many weaker hands that would have gotten there. Maybe 88-JJ, but that still seems overoptimistic. [shrug]

 

[CantSpellPoker]

Not sure that Hero can do more than check-call the river. Maybe a small blocker bet, but a counter-argument would be to check to get weaker hands to put more money in. I just don’t see that many weaker hands that would have gotten there. Maybe 88-JJ, but that still seems overoptimistic. [shrug]

Largely agree with this. My typical pessimistic mentality would usually lead me to lead out here for a small amount so that I can basically control how much I lose once the villain calls with a winning hand. You can also check and then call most reasonably sized bets. Let's not act like your hand is pure trash lol

 

[Frogzilla]

check call flop I like

Lead flop i like even though bad hand to do it with (good to do it with all hands even this one) but would go smaller like 1/3ish.

River I check, great card to bluff, but don’t have to turn top pair into a bluff ever. Wish I knew block bet strategy for something tiny like 1/4 pot. Don’t really know that part of the game.

 

[springbox]

Agree on check call river. The only hands we beat that might call are Q9, maybe JJ/TT? This is the rough part of a hand like QT OOP, you end up in situations where your hand is too good to bluff or fold, but you can lose to so many value combos.

Based on how they played they haven't really narrowed their range except folding out their trash hands to your turn bet. There's not a lot of draws for them to continue with on the turn anyway, no flushes, 68 and 64 being the only ones, and they should be folding turn to such a large bet with nothing but an OESD on a paired board where they might not be good even if they hit.

AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QJ, 87s, 55 maybe 97s if your opponent opens suited gappers and 66 if they were bluff catching the turn. 98s if they're a maniac. Way more hands that beat you will call than hands you're beating. If they're opening off-suit connectors like 78o this is even worse.

No sense bluffing with top pair, either a smallish bet or a check call. Fold to a raise unless you have a very good read your opponent is bluffing.

 

[CantSpellPoker]

What happened here?

 

[JMC9389]

What happened here?

Hero checked.

Villain bet $10 into the pot of $16.75.

Hero flicks in the call and gets shown two black aces.

 

[springbox]

Hero checked.

Villain bet $10 into the pot of $16.75.

Hero flicks in the call and gets shown two black aces.

Seems about right haha.

 

[JMC9389]

Seems about right haha.

Probably about the worst case scenario run out. Hero hits top pair on the flop. Board pairs on the turn still with little to think they're not ahead. Blank river, don't think this villain was going away with any kind of bet size on the river.

The manner in which villain checked his cards and called pretty much a second later on a dry run out, hero got that sinking sense in his stomach that they were beat. If anything, hero was happy to pay for the information to see what villain was doing. Was expecting to see A7 suited truthfully. Was genuinely surprised to see aces there.

 

[JustinInMN]

The question is, how do we size a three bet here? Do we go big to punish the limpers or go small to exercise pot control and hope to fold out at least one limper to get it heads up or three ways. Either way, this is a clear fold to a back 4 bet.

This is what happened though. In retrospect, I hate my play here. Hero ends up flat calling. Looking back, I think that this is a fold>>raise>call. Suited one gappers can made a stronger case to three bet to fold out those aforementioned hands that don't want to play a bloated pot multiways.

You know what, I am going against the grain and I am going to defend the call, and I am going to say the 3-bet is the worst of all options here. If you are playing this hand, you want to play it multi-way because what you really want is to flop a straight draw, but understand there will be pots you can pick up on Q-hi and T-hi boards as well.

A 3-bet will tend to fold out worse hands and only get called by better hands. I think it's in hero's best interest to let the worse hands (namely the early position limpers) to stay in the pot if they are playing lower connectors, small pairs and other hands that don't have hero crushed. If you choose to play, I think it's better to put less money in knowing you are taking somewhat the worst of it against one player in terms of hand strength, but making up for it by inviting the early limpers yet to act on the raise to call pretty widely and provide overlay. In other words, I would rather only put 25% of the money in the pot with this sort of hand than over 40%.

If a 3-bet only folds out worse hands, your are either turning this hand into a bluff that blocks no monsters (AA or KK) or you are simply putting more money in for the privilege to play a weaker hand out of position with little overlay in the pot.

I think the ranking goes fold > call >>>> re-raise.

Fortunately, the two limpers folded and its heads up to the flop. Pot $3.75.

Flop comes

Hero?

Well this is the flop you wanted. Since you took the initiative, I think a c-bet is absolutely in order. Since you chose to continue pre, it is probably partially due to the assumption the villain is too aggro and will spew in spots when you out flop him.

With this in mind, hero opts to lead out with a $5 bet into $6.75. Villain checks his cards and after about two or three seconds flicks in a red chip.

No real draws evident here. So I am going to put hero on either a Qx with you, which means your kicker is likely no good, or he's planning to play cop with JJ-88. That's what's really tough about being out of position here.

Hero opts for a flat call. Pot $6.75.

Turn: on a flop of

Hero?

Reluctantly, I will admit this is the upside of you playing the 3-bet isolation, because it's just hard for me to give villain credit for too many 7x at this point. So I don't think the card changes much. I'm okay with either choice here. If you bet, gonna suck to get raised because you probably will need to call this down. If you check, you can play cop and hope villain is bluffing or just has one of those middling pairs he's going to bet once for protection here on the turn. Villain may still have a better Qx and bet, and that's the risk you accepted by playing this in the first place.

Pot $16.75.

River .

Board

Hero?

I think this is a check-call spot all day.

 

[JustinInMN]

Hero checked.

Villain bet $10 into the pot of $16.75.

Hero flicks in the call and gets shown two black aces.

Wow he played that super careful. He made more money off you by flatting pre though .

Lesson here, stay out of marginal spots with this villain. He knows what he's doing.

 

[Taghkanic]

Sometimes they just have aces. Not much you can do there, except fold preflop I guess.

 

[DrStrange]

There are plenty of spots in poker where "not much you can do here" really means, "once you made the first mistake, it is hard to escape the consequences"

Preflop discipline's effect on win rate is nearly invisible. The chips hero didn't lose by calling light tend not to make a big impression. But the times you scored big by taking a loose preflop action are things that loom large in Hero's memory.

Folding dodgy cards in early possition can not be a big mistake, even vs fishy LAGs. You might not be maximizing profits, but you will be limiting losses. More so vs unknown villains who might be quite capable of extracting value from a small preflop indiscression.

DrStrange

 

[JMC9389]

There are plenty of spots in poker where "not much you can do here" really means, "once you made the first mistake, it is hard to escape the consequences"

Preflop discipline's effect on win rate is nearly invisible. The chips hero didn't lose by calling light tend not to make a big impression. But the times you scored big by taking a loose preflop action are things that loom large in Hero's memory.

Folding dodgy cards in early possition can not be a big mistake, even vs fishy LAGs. You might not be maximizing profits, but you will be limiting losses. More so vs unknown villains who might be quite capable of extracting value from a small preflop indiscression.

DrStrange

That's what I think happened exactly here. Should've folded pre but I was information seeking mode as I had very little sense about how this villain played. Against a known tight villain this is a fold more often than not especially with two limpers behind that could very well backraise a four bet.

I'm going nowhere with top pair after that flop given the action. I led out for value on the turn thinking I was best with little reason to think otherwise.

To @JustinInMN 's point, this hand gave me information that he tends to play on the snugger side but is very situational aware. Throughout the night he was showing down with the winner most of the time and he made disciplined turn and river folds when he felt he was behind. Not really sticky by any means but bluffable in certain situations.

He also got me good when I had aces on the button two hours later. Same stakes, he limped from the lo jack, I raised to $2, SB defended and LJ flatted.

Flop J 6 6. Checked to me, I bet $2 into $6.25. Both called. Pot $12.25.

Turn King. SB now leads out for $5, villain in LJ cold calls. I raise to $20 trying to get a call from a jack and/or a king, both call. Pot $72.25.

River 10 not bringing in any flushes. Checked to me which was very strange. I stab for another $20, both cold call, I lose to lo Jack's flopped boat with J 6. Tilting after I grinded my way back to almost even after the Q 10 hand.

Very next hand get kings, triple barrel, lose to 9 7 that called me down light and rivered two pair. Blind shoved my last $25 next hand and got no customers. Very frustrating session that was kicked off by making a very dubious call with Q 10 out of position.

 

[JMC9389]

Wow he played that super careful. He made more money off you by flatting pre though .

Lesson here, stay out of marginal spots with this villain. He knows what he's doing.

Just unfortunate I didn't get any scare cards to get him off a double paired board or 3 or 4 to a flush.

The runout literally could not have been better for him given both our holdings.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Very frustrating session that was kicked off by making a very dubious call with Q 10 out of position.

Many players underestimate the value in avoiding hands like this for precisely this reason.

With a hand like QT in the situation you described, when you hit anything, you're usually not going to know where you're at. Unless something drastic happens (like you catch a safe boat or straight), you'll spend the whole hand feeling like this.

Due to this factor, you'll often fail to protect your hand when you're ahead and end up losing to a hand you should have chased out. You'll miss value when you're ahead and lose more money when you're behind. You'll make bad calls, folds, and raises with a lot of frequency.

In short, you'll fuck up quite a bit, and it'll prime you to fuck up more in later hands because you're frustrated and doubting yourself.

Folding preflop in spots like this not only saves you the initial bet and prevents you from losing more, but also saves you from your own emotions.