PAHWM - 1/2 NLHE Deep Dive at Hollywood Casino St. Louis (8 Viewers)

[PokerDogDoc]

PREFLOP
UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 all limp for $2
LJ (Villain) raises to $25 (standard open is $10)
HJ & CO fold
BTN (Hero) looks down at , considers for 10 seconds and elects to call*
SB, BB, and all limpers fold
2 to the flop, Hero has position
Pot = $59
SPR = ~5+

FLOP


Villain thinks for 10 seconds and.... CHECKS (say what?)

Hero has middle and bottom pair, a backdoor royal flush, and a backdoor straight.

Hero decides to bet $35 (~60% pot)

Villain thinks for 20 seconds and CALLS.

Pot = $129
with $255 behind

In my mind the Villain has both the range advantage and the nut advantage as I don’t have KK or AK or I would have 3-bet pre-flop.

He could have made hands ranging from bottom pair, top kicker (AT) to a flopped straight (AQ), and everything in between.

But this particular Villain’s actions in this specific game under this specific dynamic makes me think he’s more likely to have a strong but not nutted hand and feels vulnerable— if not now, then in future streets— and his having flashbacks to his QQ hand, thus the caution and no check-raise. If I bet, I’m showing some strength and have hit the board… and if he had smashed the board, why wouldn’t he check-raise and get me to call with my own good hand?

If he’s got the A-high straight, I’ve still got equity to a chopped straight, spades for the flush draw, or a J or T for a boat (but not the nut boat)

I’m playing the player here but still treading cautiously here because this could still all be a trap.

TURN


Board is now


We hit our Jacks full of Tens boat, the second nuts.

All the flushes miss.

When the turn hits I see the Villian drop his shoulders / slouch a bit for 2 seconds before straightening back up and take a steadying breath (a tell? a reverse tell?).

He thinks about 30 seconds while staring at the board and tosses a $100 black chip out (~3/4 pot).

Hero thinks for 20 seconds, looks at the pot to confirm the size (~$225), looks at Villain’s chip stack (~$300), glance at my own chips (~$250), but do NOT check my cards.

Hero feels the Villain most likely has ______ or ______ and decides to ______ ? (please explain)

 

[JMC9389]

Bing bong!

Smells like aces. Save for a two outer on the river, call and milk this.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is never folding except maybe to a river king. Hero gets busted by KK no matter what. The decision is call or raise.

I vote call. The river isn't often changing things. Let's keep all of villain's hands in play. Hero can always bet the river if needed. Maybe villain will spew unassisted

 

[foreverdev]

I’m calling and probably calling a jam on the river.. I’m not raising the turn because he doesn’t necessarily call me on that board with aces but snaps with KK so it’s not a great value spot. i said earlier but i think he’s got KK or AA here still. If it is KK I don’t think I can get away from this…

 

[Kam]

Hmmm…

Worst case now is:

1. KK
2. KJ (least likely)

I wonder if his tell was a holding like now realizing he’s missed his nut flush draw and top pair is counterfeited by trip J.

assume you go busto vs KK (I am all in from this point on).

 

[ChipMonster]

Have to make the call here

 

[Stackme]

Seems like Vill most likely has AA, AK or AQ here and is leading as a protection/feeler bet (and less likely, could still have KK and donk bets to make sure turn doesn't go check/check), so have to just Call here to make sure to keep all his hands in for the river -- just a cooler if he does have KK.

 

[Stackme]

Seems like Vill most likely has AA, AK or AQ here and is leading as a protection/feeler bet (and less likely, could still have KK and donk bets to make sure turn doesn't go check/check), so have to just Call here to make sure to keep all his hands in for the river -- just a cooler if he does have KK.

I also think there's a couple TTs in his range here as well, just to add to the group of hands we can get value from

 

[chippitydoodah]

Parking Lot AQ straight is going down

 

[Kam]

Ok HERO, action is on you.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

I also think there's a couple TTs in his range here as well, just to add to the group of hands we can get value from

Possible but not considered at the time. Good catch.

Okay, a long day for me… let’s wrap up this hand.

BTN (Hero) has and has position on our Villain in the HJ

FLOP


TURN


Board is now


Pot = ~$225 after Villain leads out for $100

Hero has Jacks full (losing only to KK) and a pot-sized bet behind.

Hero feels the Villain most likely has AQ (flopped straight), but AA (overpair), AK (top/top), or QQ (2nd pair) are still possible. Given how passive Villain played this, Hero feels KK is much less likely (but possible) as V would want to win stacks and would have bet more aggressively. TT also makes sense, but don’t think V would bet $100 on the turn with that hand on this board given the action. I’d expect he would want to make it to showdown as cheaply as possible.

Hero has a pot-sized stack left so no sense to only call the Turn— he’s never folding and he’s either calling a Villain jam on the River or going all in himself to see if he can get called by worse (the straight).

Hero decides to jam for $250 to put the Hero to the test and because he thinks he can get called from a straight.

Villain tanks for 45 seconds, so we know we’re winning the hand, the question is only how much.

Villain states “I thought I had you figured out and you weren’t a gambler… but 50-50 on that right now”. Thinks 5 more seconds and makes the call.

Hero immediately turns over the winner and Villain shows for the flopped straight and busted back door nut flush straight flush draw.

RIVER


Final Board


Villain chuckles and says, “Nope, got that one wrong, didn’t I?”

Table breaks out in laughter as Hero rakes in a $625 pot at 1/2 stakes.

Obviously, everyone’s comfort level playing this way varies, but I’ve been working hard on not denying my own equity by folding too lightly, improving my opponent hand ranging, and going for value when it’s more likely than not that I’m ahead. Nice to see that I got it right this time (plus a little luck on the turn).

Comments?

 

[PokerDogDoc]

After the hand I went and checked out preflop equities based on the range I gave him. Even without discounting KJ and KT for him, I still had 33% equity, and that’s enough to see a flop when in position and heads up.

 

[Stackme]

It was kind of a loose call by him on the turn for a pot sized bet, and it would have been sad to see him turn over the flopped nutz and say, "good hand, you must have me." For this reason I like a call better, but you knew your player and got the call Great hand and thanks for sharing, well done!

 

[PokerDogDoc]

It was kind of a loose call by him on the turn for a pot sized bet, and it would have been sad to see him turn over the flopped nutz and say, "good hand, you must have me." For this reason I like a call better, but you knew your player and got the call Great hand and thanks for sharing, well done!

Thanks, and I agree that it was a little loose, but he later told me that he didn’t put me on a boat until I jammed but decided I wouldn’t have JT or KJ. He thought I either had a set of Jack’s (AJ) or AQ and jamming either to get him to fold a better hand or get him off a chop of the straight as a free roll.

The fact that he had seen me get caught bluffing a river or two before helped, I’m sure.

 

[Kam]

 

[DrStrange]

Looking at the preflop chart:

The range is more liberal than I see in my experience. That isn't old man, coffee oversized preflop bet range. If Hero tells me this game is often a game of blind stealing, with action rarely happening post flop, then I can reconsider.

If Hero's judgement about the range is correct, then the meta read of old man, coffee is misapplied. That opening range is roughly top 15%. Something close to double the raise range I'd give an OMC. A 15% PFR range is full on TAG, slipping towards SLAG

I already opined villain's range as "My range is 99+, KQs, AJs, AQo with a tiny splash of "what the hell?" This trims the 72 weakest hands from villain's range relative to hero's projections. Perhaps hero isn't giving as much credence to villain's oversized preflop bet as I do.

Assuming JTs can realize it's "all in preflop" equity as proposed by the chart is unlikely in real life. To be sure, position and skill can greatly affect realized equity for both villain and Hero.

Lest we forget, Hero is in a terrible way on the flop. Hero has something like 22% equity. Needs to hit a four out draw with two tries. Villain is laying a trap but gets caught in it himself.

Lastly, results do not reflect best practices. Good play loses sometimes - like villain slow playing flopped Broadway hoping to catch Hero speeding. Hero would win just as much playing J3o on this runout. I trust few if anyone would be saying "good hand, any two cards in position" if that were the holding under discussion.

DrStrange

 

[PokerDogDoc]

The range is more liberal than I see in my experience. That isn't old man, coffee oversized preflop bet range.

If Hero's judgement about the range is correct, then the meta read of old man, coffee is misapplied.

So maybe our definition of OMC differs, but my description of what I felt his range was and how he had previously played pocket queens is still accurate. Does a true OMC 4-bet jam with QQ after a 3-bet and cold call? No way. So he’s not a typical OMC.

And I tried to inform everyone that he didn’t play like an OMC… more like a Reg. Hence my moniker of “OMC/Reg”. He’s older, drinks coffee at the table, and his starting range is tight (but not too tight), unbalanced, and wider than a typical OMC. So call it Old Man TAG if you want. Sorry if you felt misled.

Lest we forget, Hero is in a terrible way on the flop. Hero has something like 22% equity.

True, Hero has only 22% against his EXACT hand on the flop, but he has 46% against his RANGE (even the tighter “OMC” range that you gave him). I am learning to play vs. my opponent’s entire range until he gives me reason to be cautious.

Lastly, results do not reflect best practices.

Hero would win just as much playing J3o on this runout.

True and true, but this Hero wouldn’t be in the hand with J3o so it’s a false analogy.

I simplify it down to my EXACT 2 cards vs. his ENTIRE range… then use bets and streets to redefine that range and hand strength along the way.

Thanks for all your comments and feedback, it’s much appreciated.

 

[Andrew Marks]

Didn't Villain make a mistake by not betting the flop? Having a made straight on a flop always runs the risk of a counterfeiting fourth straight card on turn or river and allowing Hero to have only one card for a chop. And didn't Villain compound that mistake by not raising Hero's flop bet? I know the idea is to maximize return here, but a flopped straight in this scenario does come with risk of a chop. Or do you think Villain has a high enough equity to play possum on the flop?

 

[DrStrange]

Put yourselves in villains' shoes. He flops the world. He is heads up vs original poster. I guess that OP looks like a good candidate for a rope-a-dope slow play. Judging from the body of this thread, I have to think OP is going to be prone to betting a huge chunk of his range as bluff-steals are essential to making the preflop play profitable. We don't have Hero's table image - just what is in his postings in this thread.

Villain has the misfortune to 1) catch Hero with a maximal flop and 2) Hero catches the 4-outer needed even after hitting flop. Villain is angling to get Hero's full stack. He might well get it if Hero doesn't improve. BUT, if villain "springs the trap" too soon Hero might escape. Bottom two pair on a Broadway board is more fragile than it looks.

I identify as OMC, at least I try to look that way. Younger guy who is looser, aggressive and perhaps a bit cocky? I would be making this exact play. Obviously, it doesn't work this time. Even so I think villain's slow play was the best choice. I didn't like villain's turn play. I go broke vs a full house with the flopped straight. Better to give Hero some rope and hope he hands himself with a second barrel. Betting lets villain fold the worst of the losing part of his range.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

Didn't Villain make a mistake by not betting the flop?

IMO, absolutely he should have lead out on the flop. Typically, being OOP and with short stacks (SPR < 15) he should lead out on this flop with his nutted and thick value hands (to build the pot). I’m only calling if I have something so he knows we’re going to get into it and play for stacks. If I missed, I fold, and he wasn’t going to win much anyway.

IF he even decides to check AND I stab (which we obviously both did), he should have at least checked-raised this wet & dynamic flop. It’s a bit trickier as he’s out of position, but he was the PFR and this flop absolutely smashes his range. By checking, he opens himself up to me checking behind to get a free card and I realize equity while he’s not even protecting his hand or getting the pot bigger when he’s got the current nuts. But since I smashed the flop I chose to start applying pressure (with caution) by betting… but the check-raise never came. If it did, I would have folded.

On a very wet and dynamic board one could argue that it might be best to let it get stabbed at by players behind. This play is usually considered when you are in early position and in a multiple way pot and with multiple players left to act. (not the current situation). Again, if this is done holding the nuts or a huge combo draw, it’s because you want player(s) to stab and you intend to check-raise, not check-call. They build the pot for you, then you drop the hammer with a big check-raise to get it down to 1 or 2 opponents. If this strategy is done with a non-nutted or thin value hand, you check-call. If done with low-equity or air, you check-fold.

I’m guessing he thought he was trapping and he let me get there on the turn. His turn lead bet of $100 was an attempt to protect his hand and get value, but it came a street too late. My jam was a polarizing bet (super strong vs weak) and he couldn’t convince himself that I had a boat.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

I’ve already shared ranges and equity of my 2 cards vs Villain’s range on the flop, which is how I play, but sharing my thoughts on the turn might give readers some additional insight into my game.

Ultimately I decided that his play and betting pattern didn’t make sense for the 7 possible winning hands based on his playing type, so decided I would shove while almost certainly ahead on the turn. I’m only losing to 1 combo of TT, 3 combos of KK, and 3 combos of KJ… 7 hands giving him quads or a bigger boat.

Based on my hand ranging, he’s also got 16 combos of AQ (straight) that might call a shove, 6 combos of AA (overpair) that might crying call. I think all others in his range fold: 12 combos of AK, 4 combos of AJ (set), 8 combos of AT, 12 combos of KQ, and 6 combos of KT. I don’t put him on anything worse than those.

71 total hands (10 pairs, 61 combos ) that I think are still in his range when we get to the turn and only 7 beat me. (10%)

22 possible calls + 7 that beat me.
3:1 odds which I’ll take all day.

If I tighten him up as only having suited combos for everything AQs or lower, then we’re down to 35 total hands (10 pairs, 12 AK, 13 suited combos) and 7 beat me. (20%)

10 possible calls + 7 that beat me.
3:2 odds. Slimmer value but still in my favor. Not for everyone, but for me, I’ll take that, too.

Still, despite my calm exterior, I was pretty nervous inside. Ultimately I decided his play and betting pattern didn’t make sense for those 7 winning hands and decided I would shove while almost certainly ahead.

As @DrStrange points out, I did get a little lucky and made a great hand on the turn with the J… but any K, Q, T, 9 or spade would also have added equity to my hand — but could have also helped him more than me or killed the action. If it wasn’t a J or T to give me a boat, I would have acted based on what card did come out and what Villain did (check vs bet small vs bet big).

Thanks for all the input, comments, and playing along.