NL08 hand from Monday (1 Viewer)

[palindrome]

Hello! I don't post a whole lot but I enjoy following the strategy posts around here. I play twice a week on average and my game seems to have slumped the last year or so. Maybe talking some of this out will lead to some improvements. Anyways, this hand from Monday has gotten me to thinking about a few things.

The regular Monday game is a .25/.50 dealer's choice game. I have been playing with most of these guys for around 8 years. Games vary wildly from normal stuff (Hold'em, Omaha, Pineapple) to the insane (Triple Flop Omaha, SOHE) but the majority of time we play some form of Omaha. This time we are playing NL Omaha Hi Lo nine handed.

I pick up in MP. UTG limps, UTG+1 shoves for $10.25. The next player shoves for $13.75 and the player in front of me calls. He has about $60 to start the hand. I have $38.50 in my stack.

UTG+1 is very loose player who will see lots of flops by limping or calling a raise. He is fairly good at reading hands but still makes calls even when he knows he is beat. He is really in it just to gamble and enjoys putting people on tilt by hitting screwy hands. In this situation, he has a real hand but where are we ranging him? I have some ideas but I'm curious about what others think.

UTG+2 is a decent LAG. Solid thinking player with a decent win rate and a large amount of gamble in him.He can have a wide range of hands here.

UTG+3 is the resident lunatic. He will either have all the money on the table or torch off $250 in 2 hours. He is very aggressive and will play just about anything dealt to him. He overvalues the low draw in this game and will call super light on scary boards. The money is insignificant to him. He loves to gamble.

What's my play?

 

[Mental Nomad]

You're missing some important information... on the face of it, a call isn't too bad here, because the aggressors have both shoved. They can't continue to raise, so they're now passive, and the fact that they're short-stacked means their range is wide.

What's missing? You've said nothing about the number of type of players after you. If odds are very high that your $13.75 call will see you to the flop, I say call. It sound like the Crazy is the guy who flat-called two? If so, he can't raise again until the flop, but if someone after you raises, would he take this to nutter land?

 

[bergs]

Definitely calling here. Quick math, they'll be around $50 in the pot on the flop and you'll have about $25 left. I'm shoving any flop that includes a club, 2 low cards, or makes me a pair. WHEEEE! GAMBOOOOL.

 

[palindrome]

You're missing some important information... on the face of it, a call isn't too bad here, because the aggressors have both shoved. They can't continue to raise, so they're now passive, and the fact that they're short-stacked means their range is wide.

What's missing? You've said nothing about the number of type of players after you. If odds are very high that your $13.75 call will see you to the flop, I say call. It sound like the Crazy is the guy who flat-called two? If so, he can't raise again until the flop, but if someone after you raises, would he take this to nutter land?

Good point and it did factor into my thinking. The two stacks behind me in order are ~$25 and ~$120. Short stack would probably shove if anything and the big stack might contemplate a call but probably not raising. As far as Crazy continuing, he probably folds half the time to any raise. It's hard to tell. He's Crazy.

 

[detroitdad]

I'm a fan of shoving here. Your most likely not folding in the flop after putting in a third of your stack

 

[Ben]

I think this is a fold. We are almost certainly behind to at least one of these players (and when we're behind, we're really behind) with only a single low draw and not much shot at the high other than clubs. Obv we could call a normal pot raise in PLO8 but NL O8 = silliness.

 

[onerand]

Not a bad spot to call and see a flop, although having people behind is not ideal. I like having the option of betting the flop - someone not all in-may fold. It is unlikely someone behind wakes up with a shovable hand, considering action.

 

[detroitdad]

With only 38 behind him I don't like calling off a third of my stack. Fold or shove imo. I'd prolly shove. If I had more behind me, like 100-150 then I probably lean towards folding. Yes, we are at risk of chopping the low. That's always a risk. It sounds like this is a "gambling" group of players. Chopping the low might not even be a legitimate concern.


Shove, and get your rebuy ready

fwiw, I hate NL PLO8. I refuse to play it.

 

[palindrome]

Definitely calling here. Quick math, they'll be around $50 in the pot on the flop and you'll have about $25 left. I'm shoving any flop that includes a club, 2 low cards, or makes me a pair. WHEEEE! GAMBOOOOL.

Not a bad spot to call and see a flop, although having people behind is not ideal. I like having the option of betting the flop - someone not all in-may fold. It is unlikely someone behind wakes up with a shovable hand, considering action.

Is the plan to never fold? Are we OK folding on horrible flops? What is the plan if one of the two remaining players raises?

I think this is a fold. We are almost certainly behind to at least one of these players (and when we're behind, we're really behind) with only a single low draw and not much shot at the high other than clubs. Obv we could call a normal pot raise in PLO8 but NL O8 = silliness.

What are you giving UTG+1 credit for?

I have some more thoughts but I will give it a little more time before I post more.

 

[detroitdad]

Definitely calling here. Quick math, they'll be around $50 in the pot on the flop and you'll have about $25 left. I'm shoving any flop that includes a club, 2 low cards, or makes me a pair. WHEEEE! GAMBOOOOL.

I agree. Calling 13 bucks only leaves him with like 25. I guess you can fold on the flop if you completely whiff on everything. This is why I would just as well shove right now.

 

[Ben]

What are you giving UTG+1 credit for?

I have some more thoughts but I will give it a little more time before I post more.

I think a loose-passive player open-shoving 20 bb in early position and a thinking LAG calling (effectively) next-to-act have stronger ranges than other peeps ITT seem to think. I would say this hand is likely behind both - maybe at best around a flip with each, with still leaves us in the untenable position of more than likely being crushed by one. Our hand is absolutely AWFUL against AA2(low) or AK2(low). This hand is pretty darn mediocre to begin with - the 9 really sucks. If that 9c were a Kc or 3c or even Jc or 4c, I'd probably get it in all day long.

 

[Bordizzle]

i'd be inclined to fold with zero invested... plus, you have to think that you're likely sharing cards with at least one other player who shoved in front of you... so your A-2 is likely only going to get you 1/4 of the pot (assuming a low comes in)

if you really feel like gambling, shove!!! flatting is the worst of the three options IMHO

 

[palindrome]

I pick up in MP. UTG limps, UTG+1 shoves for $10.25. The next player shoves for $13.75 and the player in front of me calls. He has about $60 to start the hand. I have $38.50 in my stack.

UTG+1 is very loose player who will see lots of flops by limping or calling a raise. He is fairly good at reading hands but still makes calls even when he knows he is beat. He is really in it just to gamble and enjoys putting people on tilt by hitting screwy hands. In this situation, he has a real hand but where are we ranging him? I have some ideas but I'm curious about what others think.

UTG+2 is a decent LAG. Solid thinking player with a decent win rate and a large amount of gamble in him.He can have a wide range of hands here.

UTG+3 is the resident lunatic. He will either have all the money on the table or torch off $250 in 2 hours. He is very aggressive and will play just about anything dealt to him. He overvalues the low draw in this game and will call super light on scary boards. The money is insignificant to him. He loves to gamble.

*RESULT*

I ended up shoving for $38.50. Both of the players behind folded and so did the three players in front. Crazy thought about it for a bit and eventually folded, much to his chagrin. UTG+1 flipped over and UTG+2 turned over . The board ran out for a scoop.

 

[detroitdad]

I pick up in MP. UTG limps, UTG+1 shoves for $10.25. The next player shoves for $13.75 and the player in front of me calls. He has about $60 to start the hand. I have $38.50 in my stack.

UTG+1 is very loose player who will see lots of flops by limping or calling a raise. He is fairly good at reading hands but still makes calls even when he knows he is beat. He is really in it just to gamble and enjoys putting people on tilt by hitting screwy hands. In this situation, he has a real hand but where are we ranging him? I have some ideas but I'm curious about what others think.

UTG+2 is a decent LAG. Solid thinking player with a decent win rate and a large amount of gamble in him.He can have a wide range of hands here.

UTG+3 is the resident lunatic. He will either have all the money on the table or torch off $250 in 2 hours. He is very aggressive and will play just about anything dealt to him. He overvalues the low draw in this game and will call super light on scary boards. The money is insignificant to him. He loves to gamble.

*RESULT*

I ended up shoving for $38.50. Both of the players behind folded and so did the three players in front. Crazy thought about it for a bit and eventually folded, much to his chagrin. UTG+1 flipped over and UTG+2 turned over . The board ran out for a scoop.

With only 38 behind him I don't like calling off a third of my stack. Fold or shove imo. I'd prolly shove. If I had more behind me, like 100-150 then I probably lean towards folding. Yes, we are at risk of chopping the low. That's always a risk. It sounds like this is a "gambling" group of players. Chopping the low might not even be a legitimate concern.


Shove, and get your rebuy ready

fwiw, I hate NL PLO8. I refuse to play it.

huh, looks like what I said WHOOOOOOOOOT

This position at this table with this stack behind you. I think you have to fold or shove. I'd rather shove for sure.

 

[Bordizzle]

"Frush? What's a frush??"

Had your low held up, you would've been 1/4'd...

 

[detroitdad]

"Frush? What's a frush??"

Had your low held up, you would've been 1/4'd...

Bah humbug on end results oriented

 

[Bordizzle]

Ha!

I dunno... In PLO8 I generally dump A-2 hands when I have nothing invested and no fold equity...

Reason being, I'm likely to get quartered considering all the action that happened ahead of me and what those players were likely holding

A-A-2-x would be a slightly different story

 

[palindrome]

I think a loose-passive player open-shoving 20 bb in early position and a thinking LAG calling (effectively) next-to-act have stronger ranges than other peeps ITT seem to think. I would say this hand is likely behind both - maybe at best around a flip with each, with still leaves us in the untenable position of more than likely being crushed by one. Our hand is absolutely AWFUL against AA2(low) or AK2(low). This hand is pretty darn mediocre to begin with - the 9 really sucks. If that 9c were a Kc or 3c or even Jc or 4c, I'd probably get it in all day long.

After thinking it over I came to pretty similar conclusions to these. I see your point about the 9 but it is hard to find a fold against the three loosest players at the table. I was playing around with some things in PPT and it leads to more questions.

Rankings for Ac9cQs2d
Ranking Description Average Best Worst
10H 10-handed iterative (default) 8.0 8.0 8.0
3H 3-handed iterative 12.0 12.0 12.0
6H 6-handed iterative 9.0 9.0 9.0
VR vs. random hand 16.0 16.0 16.0

Do we want to get into the habit of folding top 10% hands against loose opponents? Contextually, I agree that in this case perhaps the ranges are stronger than on average. Let's look at equities against a very narrow range for the opener.

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac9cQs2d 32.02% 89,912 152,346 23,178 62,449 163,541
aa, ak2 37.54% 119,486 234,018 25,978 30,339 133,688
15% 30.43% 87,355 178,792 24,423 64,974 88,050

I think his range is probably wider than this but it's not going to change a whole lot. Changing my hand to include another wheel card doesn't change much either.

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
Ac3cQs2d 33.89% 88,508 137,320 27,294 107,623 176,874
aa, ak2 38.12% 133,423 246,138 26,366 8,833 119,644
15% 27.99% 82,708 176,754 29,695 18,157 99,675

Meh. I'm still on the fence with this one. Folding seems so nitty but maybe correct due to shallow stacks. Does this seem like the correct reasoning?