Never had this happen before with AKs (3 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

Playing 1-2 live, nine handed. Very early in the session, but you can already tell it is going to be wild and crazy. I am having trouble getting chips out to the players and playing my hands.

Cast of characters:

We are going to have eight way action. Let's just assume everyone has $200 stacks, though that really isn't true. The table is filled with Hyper LAGs, calling stations, an Old Man Coffee and a couple of capable LAGs. Details coming later in the thread.

The Hand:

Five limps + a fold from Old Man Coffee brings us to Hero. Hero has . The big blind is a crazy LAG, entirely possible he would raise if checked to. Lets say 40% chance.

So - should Hero limp, fold or raise? If raising, how much? (normal raises are $7 - $12 or all-in blind )

DrStrange

 

[manamongkids]

AIB!!!!!!

 

[MoscowRadio]

If BB is 40% to raise then I may consider a limp in some situations. However, in this one I don't want to give the others with marginal hands a chance to get good odds to enter the pot. $10 in the pot: I raise it to $24 and see what BB does.

 

[detroitdad]

Are you button or SB?

I'm not folding.............I don't mind big pots in a cash game. Fuck it.

If your the button, I make it 22

If your the small blind I range it from 30 to all in.............Yes, its a way over bet. Your OOP If you make it 10 bucks it sounds like it won't really clear the field.

Of course I never claimed to be any good so take this with a grain of salt

 

[OklahomaBill]

All in.

 

[grandgnu]

I think Hero has a couple of viable options here.

RAISE

Hero has a premium holding against what is likely a lot of lesser holdings. There's potential for some dead money in the pot if we push some others out, as well as the possibility of being up against callers with holdings we dominate post-flop in this instance.

LIMP

Hero is in LP against a large field of players. I think I like this option best and here is why.

If Hero limps and the remaining players don't raise, we'll be seeing a flop with position against calling stations where we have a hand that can make a nut straight or flush (against opponents that would pay us off with lesser holdings). In addition, we don't get committed to a pot with an "unmade" hand pre-flop (this is a cash game, not a tournament, so AK loses some value in that sense). If we whiff, it's easy enough to get away, and if we hit we have position and can play accordingly based on our opponents actions.

In addition, there is the potential for the CRAZY to fire out a raise, "sensing weakness". This would be a great trap because the table is full of stations, so many of them will be inclined to call, and then Hero drops the hammer with a shove and either wins it outright (a pretty good score right there) or gets it heads-up against what is probably a hand that at worst we're coin-flipping against for a huge pot with dead money in it (i.e. +EV overlay)



I'm going to vote Limp on this one

 

[jbutler]

five limps and both the blinds, so pot is $13? i'd make it $15 to go.

 

[Ben]

Well, without knowing anything about what's about to happen, I make it $20. I bet we still get multiple callers, which is fine.

Since (from the thread title) I guess we're about to flop a royal flush... I still make it $20. Pretty tough for anybody else to have something they'll stack off with in a limped pot if we have the royal.

 

[Mr Tree]

I think Hero has a couple of viable options here.

RAISE

Hero has a premium holding against what is likely a lot of lesser holdings. There's potential for some dead money in the pot if we push some others out, as well as the possibility of being up against callers with holdings we dominate post-flop in this instance.

LIMP

Hero is in LP against a large field of players. I think I like this option best and here is why.

If Hero limps and the remaining players don't raise, we'll be seeing a flop with position against calling stations where we have a hand that can make a nut straight or flush (against opponents that would pay us off with lesser holdings). In addition, we don't get committed to a pot with an "unmade" hand pre-flop (this is a cash game, not a tournament, so AK loses some value in that sense). If we whiff, it's easy enough to get away, and if we hit we have position and can play accordingly based on our opponents actions.

In addition, there is the potential for the CRAZY to fire out a raise, "sensing weakness". This would be a great trap because the table is full of stations, so many of them will be inclined to call, and then Hero drops the hammer with a shove and either wins it outright (a pretty good score right there) or gets it heads-up against what is probably a hand that at worst we're coin-flipping against for a huge pot with dead money in it (i.e. +EV overlay)



I'm going to vote Limp on this one

^^^^^i endorse the above line of thinking

 

[DrStrange]

Hero has the button . . .

*** On to the flop ***

Hero makes it $18 to go. Everyone calls. Eight way action, $144 in the pot.

Flop is

SB checks (calling station) BB AKA Crazy because he is well, crazy bets $31 He thinks $31 is a lucky number and bets that much even when it makes little sense.

One fold, then a raise to $131 by a winning Semi-TAG. A winning LAG goes all in for $182. All else fold, bringing us to Hero. Does hero fold or call?

SB (calling station) left to act with $182, Crazy has $151, Semi-TAG has $51 left and presumably is pot-committed and the winning LAG is all in. The pot is $488 ($144 + $31 + $131 + $182) so Hero is getting sweet odds.


Never had that happen before, sheesh -=- DrStrange

 

[detroitdad]

someone could have been set mining with 8's or 9's. Just doesn't feel like it. Best hand is probably two pair. Fuck it, All In, get your re load ready in case your felted.

 

[grandgnu]

One fold, then a raise to $131 by a winning Semi-TAG. A winning LAG goes all in for $182. All else fold, bringing us to Hero. Does hero fold or call?

SB (calling station) left to act with $182, Crazy has $151, Semi-TAG has $51 left and presumably is pot-committed and the winning LAG is all in. The pot is $488 ($144 + $31 + $131 + $182) so Hero is getting sweet odds.


Never had that happen before, sheesh -=- DrStrange

FOLD.

If this was just one opponent going nuts MAYBE they've got an open-ended straight draw and we're ahead. But against this many opponents, and based on the description of the opponents playing for stacks, I expect to be beat, facing at a minimum two pair and possibly a set.

 

[Mr Tree]

FOLD.

If this was just one opponent going nuts MAYBE they've got an open-ended straight draw and we're ahead. But against this many opponents, and based on the description of the opponents playing for stacks, I expect to be beat, facing at a minimum two pair and possibly a set.

^^^^^I endorse this line of thinking. Again.

The betting is too hot and heavy to depend on a pair of aces to take it down. Hard to believe top kicker is the deciding factor here.

 

[detroitdad]

FOLD.

If this was just one opponent going nuts MAYBE they've got an open-ended straight draw and we're ahead. But against this many opponents, and based on the description of the opponents playing for stacks, I expect to be beat, facing at a minimum two pair and possibly a set.

I'm not good enough to let all that money go away. ALL YOU CAN EAT BABY.........lol....

 

[Mr Tree]

Let me add I would not be surprised to see pocket 8s and 9s turned over here. This smells like AK is hopelessly behind to me.

 

[Ben]

Fold. Hero has six outs at best against A8 and and JT and could be drawing virtually dead (although it's pretty unlikely given reads that these villains limp/called with 88/99 - 89 and A9 are bad enough...)

 

[bergs]

If I'm that LAG I have 89 a large portion of the time. Particularly with no flush draw out there...and I'm not jamming here with an open ender, I'm just flatting you and leading turn.

The TAG could have a set or exactly the same hand you have.

Best hand the SB could have (the hand we least want to see) is 67, J7, or JT (the latter being more likely).

I wish there were 2 suits on the board - this'd be a much easier call. As it looks now, with just $15 invested, I'd actually probably fold.

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

If that TAG doesn't have 89 I'm going to be very surprised. I've actually had this exact hand against your holdings before and villain paired the board (not my 8 or 9) on the river for a $1500-ish pot. (SIGH).

 

[Mr Tree]

If I'm that LAG I have 89 a large portion of the time. Particularly with no flush draw out there...and I'm not jamming here with an open ender, I'm just flatting you and leading turn.

The TAG could have a set or exactly the same hand you have.

Best hand the SB could have (the hand we least want to see) is 67, J7, or JT (the latter being more likely).

I wish there were 2 suits on the board - this'd be a much easier call. As it looks now, with just $15 invested, I'd actually probably fold.

^^^^ Bergs advises to fold /endthread.

 

[detroitdad]

Let me add I would not be surprised to see pocket 8s and 9s turned over here. This smells like AK is hopelessly behind to me.

I'll reiterate that I'm not very good. Sometimes I get sucked into the "gambling" aspect................looks like I'd be the only one reloading, lol...........at least that is one of the beauties of a cash game!!!

 

[jbutler]

yeah seems like a pretty straightforward fold to me...

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is risking 182 to win ( 182 + 51 + 488 ) = 721 maybe more. That's something like 3-1 odds. It surely was temping at the table . . . .

Greed < ? > fear

DrStrange

 

[grandgnu]

Hero is risking 182 to win ( 182 + 51 + 488 ) = 721 maybe more. That's something like 3-1 odds. It surely was temping at the table . . . .

Greed < ? > fear

DrStrange

Ok, you can get blinded by the odds and payoff. But you also need to consider the percentage of times you expect to actually win. You may be virtually drawing dead in this spot, or very slim. Hero is most certainly not committed to the pot given the bets he's placed and his remaining stack. I still think this is a FOLD.

 

[Mr Tree]

3/1 looks tempting but I would hazard that you are further than that behind. I find it very unlikely you are ahead

 

[Dwight87]

Go all-in, then win or lose, get up and sit at another table.

 

[jbutler]

you can stove it, but i don't know how to come out with any better than 25% equity with AKs in this spot without making both other players' ranges really ridiculous. yeah, the over-shover is a LAG, but if he's a winning LAG, he knows that none of his aggressive tendencies will have any impact on this hand when he raises $131 to $182. he should know he has to have the goods. and that on top of the TAG's raise, it just seems a clear fold to me.

p.s. here's a link to a version of pokerstove that actually works.

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

with a quick shot at the ranges, i'd have you just under 22% equity.

 

[courage]

Hero has $18 in pot with heavy action in front. No way one pair is ahead. Fold. Find better spot. Profit.

 

[MoscowRadio]

FOLD.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Finish ***

Hero ponders a long time, it is a lot of math and no poker stove to confirm the math. Hero concludes he is more like a 5-1 dog (25-1 if someone has a set). The table starts to whine, threatens to clock Hero blah blah blah. Hero folds.

Crazy calls and tables
semi tag calls and tables
Good LAG tables

Bottom set holds and wins the monster pot.

A asked the LAG about his shove, he says he missed the raise to $131 and though he was making a pot sized raise.

DrStrange

 

[Mr Tree]

Wow, at crazy calling there with AJ

 

[OklahomaBill]

And again I lose at the Doctors game.

Learned my lesson... Next time I don't want to be the hero.