And can you calculate the odds of a starting hand with AXs and flopping AAA?
Then the likely hood of cold call 3x raise?
If you can give me the lotto numbers, I'll split it with ya!
My Journey As A Professional Poker Player (28 Viewers)
- Thread starter Anthony Martino
- Start date
Then the likely hood of cold call 3x raise?
If I did it right Excel can barely handle it. I believe the probability to flop exactly 3 aces given that you are holding 4 cards is 1/48! × 1/47! × 1/46! = not very often (about 5.66e-179). I can't even translate that number.....but it is a lot of zeros after the decimal point! In fact you may not ever see it happen again.
That's not the way to calculate that number.
If you want to know the chances of getting the three remaining aces in a particular order (ie Ah,Ad,Ac) it would be 1/48 * 1/47 * 1/46 since there's a 1/48 chance the right card is placed first, then 1/47 that the 2nd is, then 1/46 that the final one is. That's about 9.6 x 10^-6 or about 1 in 104,000.
But, since we don't care about order (Ac,Ad,Ah is just as good), it should be a combination. The number of groups of three that can be pulled from a population of 48 is 48!/(45!)(3!). This one group then is 1 in 17 k or so. Alternatively, there are six different ways to order them, so we could multiply the previous by 6 to get the same thing.
Chippy McChiperson
4 of a Kind
Or 3/48 x 2/47 x 1/46 or 1/17296
Indyscammer
Flush
I agree I screwed that up.
Pinesol13
Flush
Two random questions for you (you may have already answered both, but I couldn't scroll through 180 pages):
1) Do you know what your longest streak of winning sessions is?
2) I'm assuming you put a certain amount of winnings back into your bankroll to grow it, do you have a chart, or general idea, of how much your bankroll has grown since you started?
1) Do you know what your longest streak of winning sessions is?
2) I'm assuming you put a certain amount of winnings back into your bankroll to grow it, do you have a chart, or general idea, of how much your bankroll has grown since you started?
OP
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Probably somewhere in the 7 sessions consecutive range
As far as my finances, I actually focused more on paying down expenses to reduce my monthly nut by 40% over the past few years, rather than growing my roll.
Given the stakes regularly played where I live, plus the unliklihood of my being invited to higher stakes private games in the area, I felt it was a better focus
OP
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
It was more paying down recurring monthly expenses rather than DIY genius.
Although we do cook a lot at home, I mow my own lawn and being a new homeowner learned to do some simpler things like replacing ceiling fans, outdoor lights, electrical outlets, etc for the first time, which saved on hiring someone else.
tabletalker7
Full House
And where does a person go to get a ladder that tall to get even you up there?
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
+$689 tonight, few hands of note:
There's a raise UTG from an active/loose player, a couple of calls, we're in the CO with
and repop it, the button cold-calls? The others get out of the way and we get it in on an 
flop. The guy has 
so we're actually in really good shape. He only runs once and the turn is a 
and I start thinking "really? THIS is how this guy gets me?" but the beautiful 
and we take it down!
We're in the SB with
and MP limps, active player in HJ raises, CO calls, Button calls, we call, BB calls and MP call!
Flop
This flop shouldn't hit anyone too hard unless they've got QQxx. With the nfd and wheel draw we decide to pot it and wind up getting it in vs two players (HJ and Button)
The HJ has
and just couldn't fold his Aces I guess? The button has a hand that's bad for me as it blocks the shit out of both my draws: 
HJ only runs once and it comes
and his Aces hold up.
There's a raise UTG from an active/loose player, a couple of calls, we're in the CO with
and repop it, the button cold-calls? The others get out of the way and we get it in on an flop. The guy has so we're actually in really good shape. He only runs once and the turn is a and I start thinking "really? THIS is how this guy gets me?" but the beautiful and we take it down!We're in the SB with
and MP limps, active player in HJ raises, CO calls, Button calls, we call, BB calls and MP call!Flop
This flop shouldn't hit anyone too hard unless they've got QQxx. With the nfd and wheel draw we decide to pot it and wind up getting it in vs two players (HJ and Button)
The HJ has
and just couldn't fold his Aces I guess? The button has a hand that's bad for me as it blocks the shit out of both my draws: HJ only runs once and it comes
and his Aces hold up.
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Back in the groove!
Kain8
Flush
The button has a hand that's bad for me as it blocks the shit out of both my draws:
OP
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Poker Jeezus is a cruel god
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Another positive session, booked a +$2,107 win
Hands of note:
We raise pre with
from the CO and shorty in the SB stacks off with 
. Board comes 
We are on the button and call UTG's raise holding
. Three ways to a flop of 
. Both players check to me, I pot, only UTG calls. Turn . We both check. River and he leads, I make the crying call and he turns over 
I call a raise multiway from the HJ with
. Flop is 
and I get it in vs 
. We agree to go twice and I hold both boards
I call a raise from the button with and we see a flop of . LAG bets out and I raise and he winds up folding.
I'm in the BB with and there's a preflop raise, multiway to a flop of 
. Checked around. Turn Bingo Bango Bongo Vince! I check and a solid player bets, I checkraise and he calls with position on me. River and I about want to puke at my luck, figuring this hits him. I check and to my surprise he checks back. I table my hand and we're good. Can only assume maybe he had the J-high flush or maybe at worst AQxx?
Limp UTG and call a raise with
. Multiway to a flop of . The raiser stacks off to me with and we go twice.
First board:
Second board:
Limp in with from the button and see a flop multiway of . UTG leads and we are the only caller, opting to peel one in position, in hindsight probably should be giving this up as we only have a gutshot and no diamond blockers. Turn , he what do I know? He continues to bet, we just call, keeping our nuts disguised (this one's for the out of context thread!). River Unfortunately he now checks, so his most likely holding is the flush draw that whiffed, we try to get value but he gives it up. In hindsight should've went for the raise on the turn, since if he's got the flush draw, full house draw or a combo of some sort he's likely continuing. And when he whiffs the river it's hard for us to squeeze anymore value, so should've taken it on the turn.
We're in MP with and limp, the HJ raises and we four-handed to a flop of . Checks to us and we pot it, he repots it and we get stacks in. He has 
and only runs once.
Turn and river and somehow we hold!
Feels good to finally get some run-good in multiple sessions. Back at it next week!
Hands of note:
We raise pre with
from the CO and shorty in the SB stacks off with . Board comes We are on the button and call UTG's raise holding
. Three ways to a flop of . Both players check to me, I pot, only UTG calls. Turn . We both check. River and he leads, I make the crying call and he turns over I call a raise multiway from the HJ with
. Flop is and I get it in vs . We agree to go twice and I hold both boardsI call a raise from the button with
and we see a flop of . LAG bets out and I raise and he winds up folding.I'm in the BB with
and there's a preflop raise, multiway to a flop of . Checked around. Turn Bingo Bango Bongo Vince! I check and a solid player bets, I checkraise and he calls with position on me. River and I about want to puke at my luck, figuring this hits him. I check and to my surprise he checks back. I table my hand and we're good. Can only assume maybe he had the J-high flush or maybe at worst AQxx?Limp UTG and call a raise with
. Multiway to a flop of . The raiser stacks off to me with and we go twice. First board:
Second board:
Limp in with
from the button and see a flop multiway of . UTG leads and we are the only caller, opting to peel one in position, in hindsight probably should be giving this up as we only have a gutshot and no diamond blockers. Turn , he what do I know? He continues to bet, we just call, keeping our nuts disguised (this one's for the out of context thread!). River Unfortunately he now checks, so his most likely holding is the flush draw that whiffed, we try to get value but he gives it up. In hindsight should've went for the raise on the turn, since if he's got the flush draw, full house draw or a combo of some sort he's likely continuing. And when he whiffs the river it's hard for us to squeeze anymore value, so should've taken it on the turn.We're in MP with
and limp, the HJ raises and we four-handed to a flop of . Checks to us and we pot it, he repots it and we get stacks in. He has and only runs once. Turn
and river and somehow we hold!Feels good to finally get some run-good in multiple sessions. Back at it next week!
MrCatPants
Full House
WOW! That sounds like a juicy table. Was the action all pre, or was it also post flop? If post flop...WTF???????We are on the button withand the BB is willing to stack off with
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
That was post flop. Some people overvalue Aces like they're playing hold em
MrCatPants
Full House
Or the ol non-nutted double gutter on an already wet board
OP
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
+$839 tonight, hands of note:
We're on a smaller stack and isolate preflop for stacks against the preflop raiser with dead money in the pot. We've got fairly shitty Kings in, but would rather take that headsup vs the raiser than against the field. He has a legit hand, although his pair hurts him against us a bit, but still has . Flop is and runs out to give us a bit more than the double
We have
against on a flop of and the shorty goes bust.
Get stacks in holding against an over-aggro guy in the SB who has . We agree to go twice and it runs out:
on the first board, which is good because it's chewed up a bunch of his outs against us. Then the second board comes and we see the door card which is the
But before I can shout FUCK! the peels off and then . He's still got a gutshot here but doesn't hit so we chop it up
We get caught up in the CO in a preflop raising war between a couple of players and wind up four ways to a flop holding with the BB, HJ and Button in the hand as well. On a flop of it's surprisingly checked around. The turn results inthe Button and BB getting stacks in, myself and the HJ fold. The Button has for a shitty two pair???? and the BB shows for a turned set.
We're on a smaller stack and isolate preflop for stacks against the preflop raiser with dead money in the pot. We've got fairly shitty Kings in
, but would rather take that headsup vs the raiser than against the field. He has a legit hand, although his pair hurts him against us a bit, but still has . Flop is and runs out to give us a bit more than the doubleWe have
against on a flop of and the shorty goes bust.Get stacks in holding
against an over-aggro guy in the SB who has . We agree to go twice and it runs out: on the first board, which is good because it's chewed up a bunch of his outs against us. Then the second board comes and we see the door card which is the But before I can shout FUCK! the
peels off and then . He's still got a gutshot here but doesn't hit so we chop it upWe get caught up in the CO in a preflop raising war between a couple of players and wind up four ways to a flop holding
with the BB, HJ and Button in the hand as well. On a flop of it's surprisingly checked around. The turn results inthe Button and BB getting stacks in, myself and the HJ fold. The Button has for a shitty two pair???? and the BB shows for a turned set.
tabletalker7
Full House
You know man.......... You could have told me you were going on this hot streak BEFORE I fired the other stripper.
Seriously, great to see you turn it around man. You deserve it.
Seriously, great to see you turn it around man. You deserve it.
Kain8
Flush
See weeble crush!
Crush weeble crush!
Crush weeble crush!
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
An interesting night where I lost the minimum after flopping quad Aces (yes, you read that correctly). Alright, here we gooooooo
We limp in the CO with
and the button raises, two callers and we close the action so we call with our badugi hand (it's ok to fold this outright pre or to the raise as well, probably preferred most of the time).
Anyway we flop pretty well in. To our surprise UTG leads out with a bet, we raise since our hand isn't likely to improve and we don't want anyone picking up a draw for free on the turn. Folds back to UTG who rips it, we call, he only runs once and has for top and bottom pair plus backdoor spades. We fade his outs and win a nice pot
We see a flop multiway (all limped) holding in the HJ. The flop comes and it's checked to us. Given we have the nut flush draw plus a double gutter straight draw, we pot it, expecting to find folds unless we run into a slow played set of Jacks that will likely checkraise us. A known doofus on the button calls.
Turn we both check
River we both check again.
I expect to see him have a whiffed flush draw, but unfortunately he also flopped top and bottom pair holding and wins this one.
We limp-call a raise while in UTG holding. Three ways to a flop of . This flop favors the callers range generally more than the raisers (who is on the button) and with a pair plus straight draw we lead right out for pot. He rips it, we call and he only runs once. He has so we're a relative coin flip that we unfortunately don't win and he doubles up.
And then the piece de resistance! to my session. It's my last hand UTG before the blinds hit and I'm dealt
We go 6-ways to a flop of
BINGO BANGO BONGO VINCE! The only problem with this flop is that it's going to be hard for me to get any action since I have the board pretty locked up. But with five opponents out there we'll just have to check and pray someone fills up and can pay off. The flop is checked around and then the turn is the
The BB who is a relatively solid player leads for 2/3 pot, I opt to just call as I see zero value in raising, and a player in MP calls as well. The river is the and again the BB leads for 2/3 pot. There's only one combo of KK available for him to hold here, and he's solid enough that I don't see him willing to play for stacks on that board with the underfull. So I don't see how I can raise and ever get paid by worse here. And with MP still in the hand I opt to just call BB's bet, hoping to pickup some additional value if he feels inclined, which he doesn't.
The BB shows down for the steel fucking wheel, on my last hand of the session, when I flop quad Aces, lol. Somehow I lost only the minimum here. And unfortunately there is no Bad Beat Jackpot in this room anymore (hasn't been for years) and this is the time rake game where they don't get high hands.
Had to settle for -$1,261 on the session, back at it tomorrow.
We limp in the CO with
and the button raises, two callers and we close the action so we call with our badugi hand (it's ok to fold this outright pre or to the raise as well, probably preferred most of the time).Anyway we flop pretty well in
. To our surprise UTG leads out with a bet, we raise since our hand isn't likely to improve and we don't want anyone picking up a draw for free on the turn. Folds back to UTG who rips it, we call, he only runs once and has for top and bottom pair plus backdoor spades. We fade his outs and win a nice potWe see a flop multiway (all limped) holding
in the HJ. The flop comes and it's checked to us. Given we have the nut flush draw plus a double gutter straight draw, we pot it, expecting to find folds unless we run into a slow played set of Jacks that will likely checkraise us. A known doofus on the button calls.Turn
we both checkRiver
we both check again.I expect to see him have a whiffed flush draw, but unfortunately he also flopped top and bottom pair holding
and wins this one.We limp-call a raise while in UTG holding
. Three ways to a flop of . This flop favors the callers range generally more than the raisers (who is on the button) and with a pair plus straight draw we lead right out for pot. He rips it, we call and he only runs once. He has so we're a relative coin flip that we unfortunately don't win and he doubles up. And then the piece de resistance! to my session. It's my last hand UTG before the blinds hit and I'm dealt
We go 6-ways to a flop of
BINGO BANGO BONGO VINCE! The only problem with this flop is that it's going to be hard for me to get any action since I have the board pretty locked up. But with five opponents out there we'll just have to check and pray someone fills up and can pay off. The flop is checked around and then the turn is the
The BB who is a relatively solid player leads for 2/3 pot, I opt to just call as I see zero value in raising, and a player in MP calls as well. The river is the
and again the BB leads for 2/3 pot. There's only one combo of KK available for him to hold here, and he's solid enough that I don't see him willing to play for stacks on that board with the underfull. So I don't see how I can raise and ever get paid by worse here. And with MP still in the hand I opt to just call BB's bet, hoping to pickup some additional value if he feels inclined, which he doesn't.The BB shows down
for the steel fucking wheel, on my last hand of the session, when I flop quad Aces, lol. Somehow I lost only the minimum here. And unfortunately there is no Bad Beat Jackpot in this room anymore (hasn't been for years) and this is the time rake game where they don't get high hands.Had to settle for -$1,261 on the session, back at it tomorrow.
OP
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
duplicate post
MediocrePLOdude
Sitting Out
Where have you been playing? Because I have been at hard rock all week and haven't seen you. Are you in a private game at Lucky's? Are you playing online and posting that as your games?? Or is this become a thing where you're so obsessed with your blog that you have resorted to making up extravagant hand histories for your blog followers. I haven't seen you play live in 11 days so I'd really like an explanation as a devout blog follower. To me it seems you are just making things up as you go now....An interesting night where I lost the minimum after flopping quad Aces (yes, you read that correctly). Alright, here we gooooooo
We limp in the CO with
Anyway we flop pretty well in
We see a flop multiway (all limped) holding
Turn
River
I expect to see him have a whiffed flush draw, but unfortunately he also flopped top and bottom pair holding
We limp-call a raise while in UTG holding
View attachment 858657
And then the piece de resistance! to my session. It's my last hand UTG before the blinds hit and I'm dealt
We go 6-ways to a flop of
BINGO BANGO BONGO VINCE! The only problem with this flop is that it's going to be hard for me to get any action since I have the board pretty locked up. But with five opponents out there we'll just have to check and pray someone fills up and can pay off. The flop is checked around and then the turn is the
The BB who is a relatively solid player leads for 2/3 pot, I opt to just call as I see zero value in raising, and a player in MP calls as well. The river is the
The BB shows down
Had to settle for -$1,261 on the session, back at it tomorrow.
Marc Hedrick
3 of a Kind
He's kinda short, easy to miss.
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Hello PLONewbie12345
OUCH! That's a pretty serious accusation. You better have something to back this up. N00B.
Marc Hedrick
3 of a Kind
He's probably right. Anthony gets paid a ton from all of his blog followers, gotta keep us entertained!
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
He's not 100% incorrect, I haven't been at the hard rock, but I have been playing.
I knew he'd slip up and reveal himself to be the troll who was posting as PLONewbie12345 before, and not some brand new player
The fact that you have not been at hard rock is meaningless. Unless you've been saying that you were which I haven't seen. He is still 100% out of line.
Congratulations on moving up from PLONewbie to MediocrePLOdude. Do you collect rims by chance?
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