[LIVE PLO Hand] Do We Call Aggressive Villain Here? (2 Viewers)

[Senzrock]

Live game, NL & PLO mix. Stakes are $1/2, We are $450 effective vs Villain. Context/live reads: This is one of the first games back playing live post-quarantine. Players overall are slightly below average skill level and are especially new to PLO strategy. Villain has been crushing the game over the first few hours, with a mix of loose/aggressive play and getting super lucky in a few big spots. Villain is regarded as one of the fish in the game overall, but, in his words, "can afford it" (he 4bet shoved all in vs me pre early on for $300 effective and lost to my AK high on a T8664 runout). This last hour he has started to bleed a bit and finally lost a few decent sized pots in consecutive hands. He is known both to be super aggressive, but also can be prone to tilt and has (in my opinion) a weak mental game.

Seat 1: Folds
Seat 2: Limps $2 (Villain)
Hero: Raises $8
Seat 4: Calls $8
Button: Calls $8
SB: Folds
BB: Calls $8
Villain: Calls $8

Flop ($40): KT6r

Action: Checks to Hero and I check here too. I have several aggressive players left to act, notably the button and the small blind. There is no flush draw but obviously in PLO it is hard for any board not to be draw heavy when seeing a flop. This is a spot where I mix in bets and checks, and decided to go with a check in this case. Sure enough, aggressive button bets $25, BB folds, Villain calls, and action is now to me ($90 in the pot). Think this is a pretty clear raise spot after giving my initial thought process and with my exact hand (have the second nuts, KK unlikely, although always possible) but will open this up for initial thoughts?

 

[Rhodeman77]

First this is not a raising hand preflop IMO. Obviously this table is playing very loose since everyone called it. Your 10’s are a week pair, your flush draws are week and you have 2 gaps in any straight draw you would hope to hit.

as played against this player I put in the raise. There are a lot of possible wrap draws on this flop, I’d rather isolate him and get rid of the 3rd player.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Do you have only 1 or 2 backdoor flush draws? Personally I’m potting it here, and calling it off, as its unlikely someone has KK here.

 

[Senzrock]

First this is not a raising hand preflop IMO. Obviously this table is playing very loose since everyone called it. Your 10’s are a week pair, your flush draws are week and you have 2 gaps in any straight draw you would hope to hit.

as played against this player I put in the raise. There are a lot of possible wrap draws on this flop, I’d rather isolate him and get rid of the 3rd player.

Raise is a little loose but I think it's a very playable hand and I hate 8-way limped pots in PLO, might as well play the lottery. I try to be aggressive and rely on hand reading/skill edge post flop.

 

[Senzrock]

Do you have only 1 or 2 backdoor flush draws? Personally I’m potting it here, and calling it off, as its unlikely someone has KK here.

I have backdoor clubs

 

[Senzrock]

[Continued...]

Live game, NL & PLO mix. Stakes are $1/2, We are $450 effective vs Villain. Context/live reads: This is one of the first games back playing live post-quarantine. Players overall are slightly below average skill level and are especially new to PLO strategy. Villain has been crushing the game over the first few hours, with a mix of loose/aggressive play and getting super lucky in a few big spots. Villain is regarded as one of the fish in the game overall, but, in his words, "can afford it" (he 4bet shoved all in vs me pre early on for $300 effective and lost to my AK high on a T8664 runout). This last hour he has started to bleed a bit and finally lost a few decent sized pots in consecutive hands. He is known both to be super aggressive, but also can be prone to tilt and has (in my opinion) a weak mental game.

Seat 1: Folds
Seat 2: Limps $2 (Villain)
Hero: Raises $8
Seat 4: Calls $8
Button: Calls $8
SB: Folds
BB: Calls $8
Villain: Calls $8

Flop ($40): KT6r

Action: Checks to Hero and I check here too. I have several aggressive players left to act, notably the button and the small blind. There is no flush draw but obviously in PLO it is hard for any board not to be draw heavy when seeing a flop. This is a spot where I mix in bets and checks, and decided to go with a check in this case. Sure enough, aggressive button bets $25, BB folds, Villain calls, and action is now to me ($90 in the pot). Think this is a pretty clear raise spot after giving my initial thought process and with my exact hand (have the second nuts, KK unlikely, although always possible).

Hero: Raises to $120, button folds, villain calls.

Turn ($315 in the pot): 9x. Turn brings two straight draws in (87, less likely, and the QJ, more likely). Villain thinks for a second and checks. I think for a bit and still with no flush draws on board, I'm either beat now or up against a much worse hand that I have crushed. I decide to check. Not sure of my play here but that was my thought process in game.

 

[Machine]

I don't like the raise in that position, but the raise isn't huge, so building a pot in case you hit isn't bad. I would smooth check/call and hope the villain bets, and push/pot.


Sounds like heads up, don't want to value bet the set in case its a re-pot, I'm with you... check.

 

[JustinInMN]

Raise is a little loose but I think it's a very playable hand and I hate 8-way limped pots in PLO, might as well play the lottery.

Hero: Raises $8
Seat 4: Calls $8
Button: Calls $8
SB: Folds
BB: Calls $8
Villain: Calls $8

Wah Wah. Still got a six way flop.

I do think I like this one for a limp better. All that hands that make TTxx vulnerable are calling a raise anyway. There are two gaps here so you need a fairly particular flop to make a decent straight draw. (J9x or 97x) Sometimes TT will make top set, but often it will make second set which is tough value-wise in PLO.

Flop ($40): KT6r

Action: Checks to Hero and I check here too. I have several aggressive players left to act, notably the button and the small blind. There is no flush draw but obviously in PLO it is hard for any board not to be draw heavy when seeing a flop. This is a spot where I mix in bets and checks, and decided to go with a check in this case. Sure enough, aggressive button bets $25, BB folds, Villain calls, and action is now to me ($90 in the pot). Think this is a pretty clear raise spot after giving my initial thought process and with my exact hand (have the second nuts, KK unlikely, although always possible).

Hero: Raises to $120, button folds, villain calls.

Yeah I only like checking here if you are intending to check-raise. In a six way pot, everyone has at least a gutshot. You could already be in trouble against KK, a lot of KKxx hands can just flat preflop raises. But if not, it's worth going for this pot now.

Turn ($315 in the pot): 9x. Turn brings two straight draws in (87, less likely, and the QJ, more likely). Villain thinks for a second and checks. I think for a bit and still with no flush draws on board, I'm either beat now or up against a much worse hand that I have crushed. I decide to check. Not sure of my play here but that was my thought process in game.

I think I agree with this. Chances are someone has a straight, and you are officially on a full-house draw, and one that's only good if KK isn't out. Also hands with dry KT or K9 make a river king dangerous. If you aren't beat already you may at best be drawing for the second nuts. It's a trouble spot for sure.

 

[Senzrock]

Wah Wah. Still got a six way flop.

5 way flop!

In all seriousness though, I can't tell you how much more I prefer 5-way than 8-way. Obviously would have preferred something like 3 players in the hand, but thus is the nature of these games. Agreed on the other points.

 

[Rhodeman77]

5 or 8 doesn’t really matter, if you are winning with this hand you are making the best hand to do it. I’d rather see cheap flops then get them to put money in bad post flop than build bloated pots OOP that late position players will be able to steal more than you will when you miss.

 

[JustinInMN]

And I just have to get this off my chest about the starting hand, it just has second-nuts written all over it in so many ways.

TTxx will flop second set as often as top set. Will rarely be top set by the end of a hand. Straights are tough because of the two gaps as I said before, but at least QT won't make a "sucker straight" unless counterfeited. The hand is double suited, but neither flush would be for the nuts.

Now in fairness, second-nut hands are good enough more often in loose games than in nut-peddler games, so I still say this hand has enough going for it to be on the playable side. But be aware of the pitfalls and the difficulty of maximizing value from a tough middle position.

I’d rather see cheap flops then get them to put money in bad post flop than build bloated pots OOP that late position players will be able to steal more than you will when you miss.

On this question, to me, a raise here seems to create the situation I call "the bad sort." The hands with better pairs and flush combos are usually going to call the raise anyway, but the hands with inferior flush combos and pairs may find the muck, which are the combos we would want to target for value if we make something. If hero could sort villains' hands to his advantage, he would want pretty much the opposite of what the raise does in practice.

 

[Senzrock]

[Continued...]

Live game, NL & PLO mix. Stakes are $1/2, We are $450 effective vs Villain. Context/live reads: This is one of the first games back playing live post-quarantine. Players overall are slightly below average skill level and are especially new to PLO strategy. Villain has been crushing the game over the first few hours, with a mix of loose/aggressive play and getting super lucky in a few big spots. Villain is regarded as one of the fish in the game overall, but, in his words, "can afford it" (he 4bet shoved all in vs me pre early on for $300 effective and lost to my AK high on a T8664 runout). This last hour he has started to bleed a bit and finally lost a few decent sized pots in consecutive hands. He is known both to be super aggressive, but also can be prone to tilt and has (in my opinion) a weak mental game.

Seat 1: Folds
Seat 2: Limps $2 (Villain)
Hero: Raises $8
Seat 4: Calls $8
Button: Calls $8
SB: Folds
BB: Calls $8
Villain: Calls $8

Flop ($40):

Action: Checks to Hero and I check here too. I have several aggressive players left to act, notably the button and the small blind. There is no flush draw but obviously in PLO it is hard for any board not to be draw heavy when seeing a flop. This is a spot where I mix in bets and checks, and decided to go with a check in this case. Sure enough, aggressive button bets $25, BB folds, Villain calls, and action is now to me ($90 in the pot). Think this is a pretty clear raise spot after giving my initial thought process and with my exact hand (have the second nuts, KK unlikely, although always possible).

Hero: Raises to $120, button folds, villain calls.

Turn ($315 in the pot): . Turn brings two straight draws in (87, less likely, and the QJ, more likely). Villain thinks for a second and checks. I think for a bit and still with no flush draws on board, I'm either beat now or up against a much worse hand that I have crushed. I decide to check.

River ($315 in the pot): . Total blank river. Villain pretty quickly puts out a bet of $215. Not loving this spot obviously. The most obviously draws got there on the turn and he could well have been going for the check-raise there when I just checked behind. Against most strong/competent players, I am generally folding here but this felt like a tougher situation because of the player type. Problem was that I couldn't really put him on a hand that was bluffing and on that dry flop especially, what hands is he really calling a check raise with that doesn't contain some combo of either QJ or 87. How often am I good here getting ~2.5 on my money? I do feel like villain could have some bluffs here even if I can't think of what they would be if that makes sense. He's been losing and playing loose... I feel very stuck.

 

[upNdown]

I keep wondering why KK is unlikely.
On a table full of low skill new to plo players, anybody could have flatted pre with two kings.
but here you are on the river - I’ll agree that at this point, it’s less likely that villain has KK. But with that big bet? I’d guess he has that, or one of those straights?
I haven’t played much live PLO, so I don’t know player tendencies. But I do know that at $1/2 holdem, you just don’t see that many river jam bluffs, so without better insight on this particular player, I’m guessing he’s ahead.
I’ll just add that playing PLO with idiots is a pain in the balls. I’d love to see a hero call here, but mostly because they’re not my chips.

 

[warma]

I suck at these, which is why my home game is popular.

1. V is behind, but thinks you have nothing and is making a move to steal.
2. V is ahead and wants you to think they are behind and making a move to steal.

Which do you think is more likely? Stuck? Flip a coin: heads you call, tails you fold. Your reaction to the outcome will tell you how you really feel.

 

[JustinInMN]

I keep wondering why KK is unlikely.
On a table full of low skill new to plo players, anybody could have flatted pre with two kings.

I agree with this. Maybe I'm not the best comparison, but I am almost never 3-betting KKxx pre unless I have a suited ace as well.

But yes, along with @warma 's comment, you have a bluff catcher now. It is a tempting price, you have to be right 2 times in 7, it's just hard to see that when all the straights are pretty credible. I'd say the decision is close, but I will lean fold.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Well you do have a blocker against both qj and 87. Presumably you checked the turn because you're only getting called if you're behind, and this kept his bluffs in play. If he's aggressive like you say I'm calling, you only need to be right 215/745 of the time, which is about 28-29%.

 

[JustinInMN]

Well you do have a blocker against both qj and 87. Presumably you checked the turn because you're only getting called if you're behind, and this kept his bluffs in play. If he's aggressive like you say I'm calling, you only need to be right 215/745 of the time, which is about 28-29%.

This is the reason I think the decision is close.

 

[Rhodeman77]

What sizing has this player been using on the river throughout the night? Has he bet or said pot on past river bets? Has he bet 2/3 before? What has he shown down in the past?

Villain called the initial flop bet and Hero’s pot raise. That should mean he has a strong draw. The draws on this flop came in on the turn. Unless you have established some history of bet sizing I’d lean toward a fold.

 

[Rhodeman77]

This is the reason I think the decision is close.

there have been too many time I have flopped all 3 pair and lose a big pot to flopped top set. Blockers are nice, but they are far from a certainty.

 

[JustinInMN]

there have been too many time I have flopped all 3 pair and lose a big pot to flopped top set. Blockers are nice, but they are far from a certainty.

True, I more meant the checking on the turn could induce an aggressive opponent
But at the same time, I could argue three tens is about bottom of my range here as played, this may not be the combo to defend.

 

[Bluegrass Poker]

 

[Senzrock]

RESULTS: I tank for a LONG time. I cut out the chips, I ask him what he wants me to do... try to get him chatting. He looks slightly uncomfortable but nothing serious either way. I ruled out KK because I think a decent amount of the time this villain especially would be either (1) Raising KKxx pre (though I agree that many other players don't do this), (2) He raises the flop given the action, much less likely to check-call-call there with the best hand, this action alone I think allows us to pretty much 99% rule out KKxx, (3) I think he actually bets smaller with KK on the river because if he has KK, he should be worried about the draws just like me.

So the question is, did he call with the QJ/87xx hand or not. It was a super close spot but I decided to call. I had to factor in the combined reality that he is both aggressive, he isn't that good at PLO and he had been bleeding/losing a few pots recently and was in there with a lot of very "suspect" holdings. After I called, I expected to lose the big pot but he just said "nice hand" and he showed some kind of two pair (I barely saw it, I think it was like AJ82 or something like that for a gutshot on the flop + double gutter on the turn.

I choose this hand not to show how sick my call was (although I was proud of it in game), but more to keep us all thinking about how bad players really do make bad plays and especially action players like this are not shy about firing a few hundred bucks *without* nutted ranges. I was joking with @moechar last week that my first 5 years learning poker I had to learn the art of folding but then the last 5 years I have had to learn to art of calling! Half serious with that comment but I do see a lot of hand histories on here where the default assumption is just that villain has to have the nuts in these spots. We would do well to second-guess those deep rooted assumptions that villains are playing as solid and close to the vest as many of us might be!

Thanks for your feedback @Rhodeman77 @Chippy McChiperson @Machine @JustinInMN @upNdown @warma

 

[JustinInMN]

@Senzrock definitely smart to try and get villain talking when the spot is really close. Glad that gave you the answer .

I had to learn the art of folding but then the last 5 years I have had to learn to art of calling!

A very underrated truth. Bluff catching is a very important part of profitable play.

Well done.

 

[Senzrock]

@Senzrock definitely smart to try and get villain talking when the spot is really close. Glad that gave you the answer .



A very underrated truth. Bluff catching is a very important part of profitable play.

Well done.

Yeah you know I try not to put too much emphasis on "live reads" because I've learned the hard way that people give all kinds of fake-reverse-reverse tells but in a coin flip it can be useful. I think the other factors were more pivotal in my eventually calling the river "he is both aggressive, he isn't that good at PLO and he had been bleeding/losing a few pots recently and was in there with a lot of very "suspect" holdings" - those combined felt like a stronger logic to actually call what was a pretty huge bet (not sure I have ever bluff caught a bigger river bet than that in my life actually now that I think about it!)

 

[Rhodeman77]

Another important part of this hand is the check on the turn. Most players know that if they turn the straight they need to bet the hand themselves. Thinking he was going for a check raise is how a hold’em player may think. But PLO players know to bet the hand to get value from a set and to not give a set a free draw to a full house.

watching this player in the future to see if he does bet his made hands on the turn OOP or tries to check raise could be huge tell. Next time he checks like this you will be able to bet a set with a lot of confidence it will be good.

 

[Senzrock]

Another important part of this hand is the check on the turn. Most players know that if they turn the straight they need to bet the hand themselves. Thinking he was going for a check raise is how a hold’em player may think. But PLO players know to bet the game d to get value from a set and to not give a set a free draw to a full house.

watching this player in the future to see if he does bet his made hands on the turn OOP or tries to check raise could be huge tell. Next time he checks like this you will be able to bet a set with a lot of confidence it will be good.

Excellent point. I would say though that again this specific player is definitely not a "PLO Player". I think I actually fold a lot of turn bets if a competent player leads into me there. Just rarely not the nuts.