Late level MTT hand discussion (1 Viewer)

[MrSonOfABeech]

60 player MTT. 17 players left. Blinds 4k/8k w 8k BB ante. Hero is in the BB with 176k effective.

UTG and UTG1 both limp. SB completes. I check my option with Ks7s. Pot 40k.

Flop Qs Ts 4d. SB checks, I check. UTG leads for 45k. UTG1 folds. SB tanks. While SB is tanking, I was leaning towards a fold. I thought the overbet didn't give me the correct odds to draw to my flush (or backdoor straight). However, SB decided to check raise and rip it in for 250k effective. Now there's a lot of money out there! After much debate, I decided to take a chance and called it off. UTG snap called behind me and tabled 44 for a set. SB had QTo for top two pair. Turn was the Jd to give me all the outs, however the river 2c sent me packing.

Was I correct in my thinking? Was I correct to want to fold to the initial overbet? Was I correct to call after the SB jammed and put a bunch of money in there? Thoughts/analysis/criticism appreciated. Thanks!

 

[Eriks]

There are other stuff to consider, such as pay out structure, but this seems like a pretty easy fold no matter if the SB folds or not. Calling off all your chips with a non nut draw in a likely three-way all-in feels like suicide. You could easily be up against a made hand AND Ax of spades

 

[MrSonOfABeech]

There are other stuff to consider, such as pay out structure, but this seems like a pretty easy fold no matter if the SB folds or not. Calling off all your chips with a non nut draw in a likely three-way all-in feels like suicide. You could easily be up against a made hand AND Ax of spades

Top 7 places pay, $2000 up top.

 

[BGinGA]

With ~20bb and another orbit before you must post the BB/ante again (with mostly more favorable table position), I think you can wait for a better spot than calling off your stack with K-high vs two players who are betting heavily prior to your action.

Better to jam with that 176k up front than to call off with it later -- at least your speculative hand has some fold equity when bet that way. Personally I check/fold, but wouldn't argue against being first-to-jam vs three players (one of which has already checked) given your stack size.

 

[Frogzilla]

Average stack, and how flat is payout structure matter a lot. Under low ICM pressure I think it’s a barely ok spot to call off unless you have a read that one of those two is overweighted with nut flush draws. It’s not like a great spot, the SB range will be very strong unless total fish (remember, they are a bigger stack under even more ICM pressure) but I think you have the odds.

Under heavy ICM pressure or even medium ICM pressure it really sucks to toss in so much equity but you kind of have to fold.

 

[upNdown]

I wonder if you’re more of a cash game player. You mention effective stack, which isn’t really a term tournament players use, and you don’t mention ICM or other tournament relevant concepts. I think you probably need to play more tournaments and/or study more tournament theory.

Anyway, I agree that it’s a bad call. Your odds of making your flush are what like 1 in 3? And since it isn’t the nut flush and since you’d have to think that one of those other guys are chasing a boat, your odds of winning are probably closer to 1 in 4 at best? I think you’ve got plenty of chips to work with - I’d say wait for a better spot, but I don’t even think you’re necessarily at the point in a tournament when you’re looking for your spot. Just play some more poker (carefully) for at least another orbit or two.

 

[MrSonOfABeech]

I wonder if you’re more of a cash game player. You mention effective stack, which isn’t really a term tournament players use, and you don’t mention ICM or other tournament relevant concepts. I think you probably need to play more tournaments and/or study more tournament theory.

Anyway, I agree that it’s a bad call. Your odds of making your flush are what like 1 in 3? And since it isn’t the nut flush and since you’d have to think that one of those other guys are chasing a boat, your odds of winning are probably closer to 1 in 4 at best? I think you’ve got plenty of chips to work with - I’d say wait for a better spot, but I don’t even think you’re necessarily at the point in a tournament when you’re looking for your spot. Just play some more poker (carefully) for at least another orbit or two.

I was more of a cash game player in my youth, when I was fearless and reckless. That isn't the case now, as tournaments are my specialty as of late. Maybe my wording was poor.

I see now that it was a bad call. I felt the pressure of a dwindling stack and a poor run of cards, and decided to gamble on a guaranteed final stack. Ill-advised in hindsight, but that was my logic in the moment.

 

[upNdown]

I was more of a cash game player in my youth, when I was fearless and reckless. That isn't the case now, as tournaments are my specialty as of late. Maybe my wording was poor.

I see now that it was a bad call. I felt the pressure of a dwindling stack and a poor run of cards, and decided to gamble on a guaranteed final stack. Ill-advised in hindsight, but that was my logic in the moment.

If you’re playing a lot of tournaments I’m sure I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. But “effective stacks” makes sense for a cash game, when anybody can, and probably will rebuy at any point. But when I’m in freeze out live tournament (or beyond the rebuy period) then peoples’ stacks matter a lot on every street. Of course they could be a maniac or whatever, so my reads based on that are at my own risk. But I think is pretty significant.

 

[MrSonOfABeech]

If you’re playing a lot of tournaments I’m sure I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. But “effective stacks” makes sense for a cash game, when anybody can, and probably will rebuy at any point. But when I’m in freeze out live tournament (or beyond the rebuy period) then peoples’ stacks matter a lot on every street. Of course they could be a maniac or whatever, so my reads based on that are at my own risk. But I think is pretty significant.

I knew I was in tough. I tanked for a minute before I called. Once I decided I wasn't up against Ax spades, I decided to gamble. Blinds were going up and I decided the pot was big enough to gamble. Seems I should've waited for a better spot, but I thought I'd swing for the fences for the chip lead with my flush draw/back door straight draw.

Thanks for the detailed responses!

 

[MichaelBubly]

Would probably shake the hand of the SB for making my decision a simple fold instead of putting me in a weird spot with a limp.

Not sure why I want to get it in at a flip at best and dead or dying vs AXs vs Two Pair or sets.

Three way all in is pretty miserable here and that full pot sized raise is quite strong into 3 other players as well.

I honestly don't hate a squeeze preflop here sometimes. Although it being UTG and UTG+1 is weird. Seems like a pretty weak table just from that. Makes a fold on the flop easier because a better spot is bound to happen.

 

[upNdown]

I honestly don't hate a squeeze preflop here sometimes.

Right. Easy to say in retrospect that it totally would have worked. But even without that information, it feels like a better move than the call and pray to triple up.

 

[MichaelBubly]

Right. Easy to say in retrospect that it totally would have worked. But even without that information, it feels like a better move than the call and pray to triple up.

Yeah, I likely wouldn't have vs the early limps. But K7s plays pretty terribly post flop 4 ways and there's a good amount of dead money. Really depends how I feel about the limping ranges of my opponents. Certainly a reasonable squeeze candidate though.