Is this a fold, jam, or call? (1 Viewer)

JMC9389

JMC9389

Royal Flush
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 27, 2019
Messages
11,256
Reaction score
25,016
Location
NJ
Thinking about this one still a day later.

We're 9 handed in the final table of a 29 horse multi table deepstack freezeout tournament. Blinds are 1500/3000 with no ante.

Hero (me) is in the BB with just under 20 bigs left, about 58k effective.

UTG's both fold.

LJ with the short stack (about 8 BB's) open jams for about 24k effective.

Folds around to the cut off (about 25 BB's) with about 75k left flat calls.

Folds around to hero who looks down at :7h::7s:

Action?
 
I assume you’re paying 3, maybe 4 spots?

I think this is just a fold. With smaller pocket pairs you want to be aggressively jamming trying to maximize your fold equity or take it heads-up. The last thing I want is to have the cutoff who’s already put in 1/3 of his stack call and then hope that 7s can hold 3-ways. Additionally from a live read perspective, I think a cutoff who flats for 1/3 of his stack at 25bb tends towards being really strong and is trying to get you to come along, a medium strength hand is more likely to re-jam for isolation if he’s a semi decent player.
 
JMC9389 said:
LJ with the short stack (about 8 BB's) open jams for about 24k effective.

Folds around to the cut off (about 25 BB's) with about 75k left flat calls.

Folds around to hero who looks down at :7h::7s:

Action?
Click to expand...
CO are going to flat call a lot of the time with AA KK QQ, and Jam with 99 TT JJ AK AQ

Jamming here will mean the CO only need 12 BB more to call when the Pot is already at 36BB too

I will not Jam and fold most of the time here
 
CraigT78 said:
I can't wait to show y'all how Circus games are played at Windy Crest.

Now how would one ensure I can transfer funds to international people? I can't fly with more than $10k in cash and that might not be enough :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...
Pm
 
This is one of those spots where most of your value is in the possibility of letting other players bust each other.

The flat-call in front of you looks very strong. Shoving here is likely to get a call from at least that player. With 77, you'll often find yourself way behind or flipping, and almost never a big favorite.

Let them duke it out.
 
This is the thing about these strat threads. I can read the OP objectively and say "That's a fold". Then when I think about the situation like I'm sitting at that table, I'm pretty sure 99% of the time I'm jamming.

Folding is easier said than done for me.

Also I don't think there is any jamming for isolation here. The 25BB shorty is never folding.
 
In the end, I decided to fold. Usually in these spots I find I'm behind at least one of these players if not both. Flipping at best against Ax combos. Best case scenario was that they both had Ax combos and took away one of each other's outs. To me, it's an isolation shove to an all in, but not with a call already behind.

As many have pointed out, just a flat call from the cut off just seemed very strong to me like he wanted more players behind to come along. I'm figuring the LJ player is shoving with just about anything decent. Ax, pocket pairs, etc since his stack is so low.

Was surprised to see LJ turn over kings with cut off turning over pocket 8's. Figured it'd be the other way around. LJ held and doubled up and I went from third highest stack going into final table play to being blinded down and out in 8th. The other short stacks besides me kept doubling up. Got absolutely nothing playable until I was down to 5 BB's and got A 10. Shoved, snap called by 9's on my left. No Ace or 10 to keep me in it. GG me.
 
I suppose the discussion point remaining is this.

Are 7's good enough to go over the top of the caller in the LJ to try and fold him out and get it heads up with the initial all in player?
 
JMC9389 said:
LJ with the short stack (about 8 BB's) open jams for about 24k effective.

Folds around to the cut off (about 25 BB's) with about 75k left flat calls.

Folds around to hero who looks down at :7h::7s:

Action?
Click to expand...

JMC9389 said:
As many have pointed out, just a flat call from the cut off just seemed very strong to me like he wanted more players behind to come along. I'm figuring the LJ player is shoving with just about anything decent. Ax, pocket pairs, etc since his stack is so low.
Click to expand...

I do agree with the others, though I wouldn't say cutoff even has to be super strong here, but the cutoff is NEVER BLUFFING either. He's at least got two high cards. ON the other hand, the Low-jack's range is wide open and I would fully endorse a 3-bet shove here if not for the cutoff. But that's the thing with middle pairs, even if you happen to be against two weak unpaired hands they could have four overcards between them against you. (Though in this case you would end up okay if the low-jack drew out on you and you won a side pot with cutoff.) But I would say cutoff almost never has a pair lower than 55 here, so there aren't many spots where you would have him crushed, low-jack could possibly have any pair I suppose.

But bottom line, with cutoff showing interest in a spot where he's never bluffing and even his weakest holdings are 50-50 against you, it's probably okay to throw this one away.

JMC9389 said:
Was surprised to see LJ turn over kings with cut off turning over pocket 8's. Figured it'd be the other way around. LJ held and doubled up and I went from third highest stack going into final table play to being blinded down and out in 8th. The other short stacks besides me kept doubling up. Got absolutely nothing playable until I was down to 5 BB's and got A 10. Shoved, snap called by 9's on my left. No Ace or 10 to keep me in it. GG me.
Click to expand...

Boy I can see why you want to revisit this hand since it looks like nothing else went right after that. I still say folding 77 is the right play, but it does suck when the deck leaves you like this.

JMC9389 said:
I suppose the discussion point remaining is this.

Are 7's good enough to go over the top of the caller in the LJ to try and fold him out and get it heads up with the initial all in player?
Click to expand...
Looking at the stack sizes, I don't see what cutoff could fold after calling the initial 8BB shove. If you shove for 20BB, the CO is only looking at 12BB to call and win a pot with 36BB out there already. I think even Cutoff's worst flatting hands are going to call getting 3-1, and again even the cutoff's worst flatting hands are still probably at worst 50-50 against 77. Even at that, if you had cutoff covered, he's only playing 25BB effective, so the math works to 2.5-1. Bottom line, I think cutoff calling the 8BB is stack-committing. There isn't much to gain by trying to shove with your holding here.
 
JMC9389 said:
I suppose the discussion point remaining is this.

Are 7's good enough to go over the top of the caller in the LJ to try and fold him out and get it heads up with the initial all in player?
Click to expand...
Depends on the run out. If a 7 came, it was a clear jam. If no 7 came, you made a great fold! That's how poker works, right?

FTR, I'm folding in that spot.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account and join our community. It's easy!

Register

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Similar threads

B
Close call at 10NL ACR Blitz
Replies
0
Views
153
boltonguy
B
B
Thoughts on this hand? 6-max 25NL on ACR
Replies
14
Views
297
NitCole
NitCole
B
Do you call this river jam?
Replies
22
Views
607
grebe
grebe
B
10NL Blitz on ACR: Do you call this river jam?
Replies
7
Views
272
boltonguy
B
B
10NL Blitz on ACR: Do you call this river jam?
Replies
2
Views
215
boltonguy
B
Back
Top Bottom