Is Doug’s fold really that great? (1 Viewer)

SiouxperStack

SiouxperStack

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This season of High Stakes has been a lot of fun to watch. I’m sure you all have seen Polk’s lay down to Hellmuth but is it really as great as everyone is making it seem? What are some other amazing folds out there in the YouTube universe that may be better? Daniel considering folding to Gus’s quads, in an earlier season, is commendable but he still called.
 
It goes both ways, if you know Helmuth. On the one hand, Helmuth never has Q10 there, so it’s a great fold.
On the other hand, Helmuth is never jamming all those chips in that spot, without Q10, so in that regard, it’s not that amazing.
If those two factors even each other out, then it’s the talking that breaks the tie. And Helmuth, for all his experience and success is amazingly bad at table talk, as demonstrated here.
It was a very good fold, but I’d say a notch down from the best folds ever category.
 
upNdown said:
It goes both ways, if you know Helmuth. On the one hand, Helmuth never has Q10 there, so it’s a great fold.
On the other hand, Helmuth is never jamming all those chips in that spot, without Q10, so in that regard, it’s not that amazing.
If those two factors even each other out, then it’s the talking that breaks the tie. And Helmuth, for all his experience and success is amazingly bad at table talk, as demonstrated here.
It was a very good fold, but I’d say a notch down from the best folds ever category.
Click to expand...
I just see a 12x bet and think the decision to fold is pretty clear, even with 2nd nuts. Phil seemed to know that Bord was folding but I’m not sure Doug knew that. If Hellmuth was holding King Ten of spades it’s nearly a coin flip. Folding 8k to 12x bet when you don’t hold the nuts seems standard or I could be completely wrong. I know that I’ve made calls like that before, holding 2nd nuts, and regretted calling 90 dollars with only 9 invested.
 
Helmuth is the nittiest player in the entire world. What was it just the show prior where he folded AKo preflop and KK to a flop bet on like A73 rag?
Doug watched that footage and had to know that with how tight Phil was playing the only possible way he was putting his whole stack in there (into two players nonetheless) was if he had the nuts. It was a good fold but honestly a no-brainer in context of the past few shows. What was Bord saying, "Phil has a set (of 8s I think)." No way Phil the nit is jamming with a set on a straightened board like that ...
 
I’ve watched this multiple times and heard Daniel Negreanu break this hand down on his podcast. Let me preference this by saying in a CASH GAME at my stakes, I probably can’t make this lay down, but there are a couple interesting points here.

I think it’s a very good lay down, but not great cause it’s Phil Helmuth. Here’s why:

1. Old school players like PH always want to get their money in while they are ahead, and I agree with Daniel on his theory that Phil doesn’t want to get to a point deep in the hand where he has to make a tough decision going forward.

2. Doug knows that if PH has QT he’s drawing completely dead. He has no backdoor possibilities or run outs here where he can win the entire pot so in this spot, you either have him beat now but he can potentially outdraw you, or you’re crushed and have no shot at winning the entire pot.
 
boltonguy said:
Helmuth is the nittiest player in the entire world.
Click to expand...
He is SO NITTY. HOW NITTY IS HE?
Spoiler from the following episode to follow. It's not about any particular hand, just something Phil did, which illustrates his nittiness.


On the following episode, Tom Dwan and Rick Salomon came in late. As they sat down, they asked everybody to double the stakes. Everybody agreed without hesitation, except Helmuth. For Phil to agree to double the stakes, he had to get Dwan and Salomon to take half his action. It's just unreal. What the hell is he doing at that table. He's very possibly the richest poker player at that table. I believe he was only in for a hundred grand, and who the hell knows if he even had all of himself in that buy-in (I'm betting not) and still, even knowing he's going to keep nitting along, he still needs to sell half his action, to be safe.
 
Yeah didn’t three of them split half of Phil? That didn’t seem right - how the heck are you going to try to stack the guy you have 20% of. I was blown away by that on multiple levels. Can’t make for a fair game.
 
I will say that watching Tom Dwan has improved my game. If only I could play deep enough to work in some Rick Solomon style action ...

this show alone makes PokerGO worth it
 
Ohhhhhhhh and the biggest kicker is Phil starts talking about hands. Claiming blockers and sets. He’s giving himself away essentially.

His best bet there is to just be silent. He comes off entirely too confident there and in my mind, anything he mentions eliminates cards from his ranges so he’s allowing Doug to take out potential starting hands.
 
shorticus said:
Ohhhhhhhh and the biggest kicker is Phil starts talking about hands. Claiming blockers and sets. He’s giving himself away essentially.

His best bet there is to just be silent. He comes off entirely too confident there and in my mind, anything he mentions eliminates cards from his ranges so he’s allowing Doug to take out potential starting hands.
Click to expand...
Totally agree, naming hands 10 7 crushes. I like Doug going “What could you have?” Mocking Phil:
 
OfficerLovejoy said:
I think Jonathan Little did the best analysis so far. He breaks it down with phils range and calculates polks equity. It's actually not even close.
Click to expand...
Excellent breakdown. I was shocked at the equity.

This probably the best lay down on HSP but definitely not in all televised poker.

I think it's fairly obvious this game is too big for PH and I'm sure the players knew that. Especially doug, he doesn't really fuck around and I'm sure he did his homework. I think anyone else and Phil gets snapped called.
 
It's a good fold because it does require a few factors.

1) Awareness that despite his petulance, Hellmuth is basically a nit.
2) Awareness that straights are overrated and even the 2nd nut is foldable to this sizing.
3) Ability to get Hellmuth to say enough to confirm the read.

The charts and strategy discussion is basically my second point, but not many players can really do that analysis without having studied very deeply.

The others are "social skills" of observation and conversation that can be underrated on poker.

And yes even someone as deep into GTO play as Polk can make an exploitive fold.

Congratulations Phil, you just turned the stone nuts into a bluff.
 
Though curious, if the flop were rainbow, that makes this fold exponentially tougher. The flush draw gives some cover to the fold that flush draws still have good equity, especially those with draws to higher straights as well.

On a rainbow board, the only way to fold this is a soul read. But again Hellmuth is nitty enough and Polk may have estill extracted the right conversation.

But it's much tougher to fold if the two flush is absent.
 
Forgot to mention this looked like an amazing fold since hsp has nothing but calling stations. If you watch previous seasons, people getting paid off and calling rivers with second pair all of the time.
 
Good but quite reasonable fold imo. Phil is just such a nit there is no way he's jamming anything but the nuts. Lol at the blockers remark. He really should stick to tournaments. I quite enjoyed his HU matches with Antonio and I look forward to the match vs Dnegs.
 
i watched the next episode and PH kept saying how he never raises QT in EP. Its obvious he was trying to be sneaky and it worked for him, but I guess he forgot about a) doug is going to put PH on a RANGE of hands b) everyone knows PH aint putting 100k in the middle without the nuts.

also dwan trolled him hard.... "yeah you're the guy who flopped the nuts and the other guy had a straight, and you only made 7k" :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
 

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