GetUrShineBox
Flush
SPXU shorts the S&P 500 at about 3x and you can day trade it.
for example the S&P is down 1.14% today and I'm up 3.6% in my position.
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Is a recession coming? Sell stocks? (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Darson
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for example the S&P is down 1.14% today and I'm up 3.6% in my position.
CantSpellPoker
Flush
DXD is another one.
I believe it shorts the DJIA at 2x, but I'd have to look it up to be sure. I don't currently invest in any type of inverse option, but I have thought about it.
I believe it shorts the DJIA at 2x, but I'd have to look it up to be sure. I don't currently invest in any type of inverse option, but I have thought about it.
Gold doesn’t make sense as an “investment” IMO. People can make more of it. Manipulate it. Large quantities are controlled by governments. It has some industrial use but if that’s your motivation then rather buy platinum etc.
Buy land. Not speculative land. But fair value properties. Maybe rental income properties etc. that’s your inflation hedge. Land if finite.
Buy land. Not speculative land. But fair value properties. Maybe rental income properties etc. that’s your inflation hedge. Land if finite.
RainmanTrail
Royal Flush
I'm not investing in gold. I'm divesting from the US dollar and looking for a store-of-value option that won't crumble like the US dollar until I figure out what I want to do with it. But yes, I'm investing in real estate too. Just not right now.
Deflation before inflation. Sit tight boys.
Welp not a recession yet but the markets do not like Trump getting Covid
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sell your chips also. especially as the AUD rises against the USD. Bring back November 2010!!!
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IMO The reason we don't understand it because the "rules" we were given to "understand" have all been changed to suit the prevailing agenda of infinite prosperity!
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look at AMC Theaters stock. I just don’t get it. This thing should have been on the chopping block months ago.
dajebriza
Two Pair
I'm waiting... Waiting for the crash.. Just sittin' here on my mountain o' cash.
I was curious and looked up AMCs 6/30 quarterly performance.
So this company has $11 billion in debt..... Last quarter they brought in $19 million in revenue and lost $570 million. Total assets are around $7 billion.
And you can buy this turd today for around $500 million (market cap).
I don’t see how the equity in this business is more than zero $. Selling all their theaters won’t even cover the debt holders.
Yet their stock is up 230% from their low....
A casino has a more predictable outcome than the market. I just don’t get it. Something is fishy.
I don’t disagree that gold may not be the best investment out there all the time but I am not following your rational. The supply of gold is limited - approx 2500 tons/year w/ 191,000 tons total worldwide - making it a precious metal. Lots of investment classes may be manipulated, the stock market is rife with it, even land. Governments have large amounts of it because it is a store of value.
Do you have additional insights into this?
hdgeno
Full House
Thanks for that link, fantastic insight from a wise man.
dajebriza
Two Pair
Real estate is equally concerning though. Real estate has been booming all over, which raises local rents, putting more economic pressure on the population. Buying real estate now is like buying into a bull market. The quickly-increasing rents are disproportionate to salaries in the areas where real estate has been increasing. So if you buy now, you are paying a high price for a home and need to charge increased rent. When the economy crashes, people have a hard time paying rent. I had two tenants stop paying rent when they lost their jobs from COVID and the non-eviction law allowed them to stay in my properties for 6 months without paying rent, which I will never recoup. Meanwhile, I still had to pay insurance, property tax, utility bills, etc. Rental properties can become liabilities if you don't have cash on hand to float them for a year or two in a bad economy and if property values also drop, then you lose on both ends.
davin
4 of a Kind
do you suspect the real estate side to recorrect and drop in coming times?
Everything’s fine. Nothing to see here.
https://www.theverge.com/platform/a...ash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal
Interesting and informative article. It’s notable that, while the focus is Buffet’s thinking on the opportunity cost of investing in gold versus investing in land, Buffet is not invested directly in land. I see a real estate agency, and then there’s the land that is owned by the companies he owns or invests in, but not land. If you’re going to follow the oracle, you’d stick with owning companies, almost exclusively. Or pop it in an S&P 500 index fund and forget it, which has been his standing guidance for decades for the masses.
Gold is generally good as a hedge against the dollar and inflation - see the run up in the last 10 months or so - but owning a ton of it for the long haul is a pretty conservative strategy.
We're all good boys. Keep buying:
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/amc-theatres-earnings-coronavirus-losses-1234821785/
hdgeno
Full House
Great bull run in the markets for the last two months, nice to see the portfolio growing.
I made some mistakes (most coming from moves where I wasn't patient enough) but still managed just under 25% ROI from my starting point in April. The ROI should have been quite a lot higher considering how well the markets recovered, though Canadian stocks seem to have recovered at a little slower pace.
One of my biggest mistakes was buying AAPL rather than TSLA when they did stock splits at the end of August. I still got into TSLA later on, but missed a lot of the run they're on.
I made some mistakes (most coming from moves where I wasn't patient enough) but still managed just under 25% ROI from my starting point in April. The ROI should have been quite a lot higher considering how well the markets recovered, though Canadian stocks seem to have recovered at a little slower pace.
One of my biggest mistakes was buying AAPL rather than TSLA when they did stock splits at the end of August. I still got into TSLA later on, but missed a lot of the run they're on.
Love to see positive returns!
johnjohn
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I made no moves, basically forget it and leave it, and my ROI showed a bit lower than your ROI for the total year but almost 40% return since April to EOY.
hdgeno
Full House
Yeah 40% should have been within reach, but a few mistakes along the way dropped my ROI. Even 50% would not have been out of the question.
Having never been in the markets, I’ll take the 25% and hopefully have learned from my mistakes (and keep learning).
FWIW: I recently watched a thorough, careful and devastating documentary called The Con, which is about the 2008 crash precipitated by speculation in and derivativization of subprime mortgages. That crash not only tanked the economy, but also gutted the pensions of millions of Americans—even as millions lost their homes. Some even committed suicide.
Delivered in five one-hour segments, the documentary diligently goes through how the “con” worked from the very lowest levels (small banks, mortgage brokers, appraisers) all the way through to the highest levels of finance, accounting and government. It assigns blame also to many politicians both left and right who enabled, indulged or abetted the con.
This involved not just convincing ordinary Americans to unwisely take on unreasonable debt, but deliberate and undeniable fraud upon many of those people, many of them elderly—some of whom did not even know debt had been taken out on their property.
The documentary also shows beyond question that the end result (the collapse of the U.S. economy, including vast bailouts of the very people at the top who cause it) was completely predictable. Indeed, some of those most closely involved had been at the center of previous frauds and economic debacles.
And our politicians consciously removed the safeguards which allowed it to happen; they looked the other way as they were warned what was to happen; and they let virtually everyone responsible skate, pocketing bonuses often in the hundreds of millions each.
Why is this important to this topic today? Old news, right? No. Because almost nothing got fixed after 2008. And according to the filmmaker, it’s happening all over again. Not just with mortgages, but with student loans, credit card loans, and other forms of debt which are being packaged up into bogus, junk-laden securities including derivatives.
Meanwhile, the stock market (in which I am still heavily invested, against my better judgement) keeps rising and rising. Even as the pre-pandemic problems which were already arising have been made doubly or triply worse by COVID. We can now add to the greed and recklessness of Wall Street and other allied, predatory forces a widespread concern about mass evictions, bankruptcies, small business failures, and the likelihood of wave after wave of additional bailouts... Most of which will go to those who do not urgently need them, or need them at all.
Delivered in five one-hour segments, the documentary diligently goes through how the “con” worked from the very lowest levels (small banks, mortgage brokers, appraisers) all the way through to the highest levels of finance, accounting and government. It assigns blame also to many politicians both left and right who enabled, indulged or abetted the con.
This involved not just convincing ordinary Americans to unwisely take on unreasonable debt, but deliberate and undeniable fraud upon many of those people, many of them elderly—some of whom did not even know debt had been taken out on their property.
The documentary also shows beyond question that the end result (the collapse of the U.S. economy, including vast bailouts of the very people at the top who cause it) was completely predictable. Indeed, some of those most closely involved had been at the center of previous frauds and economic debacles.
And our politicians consciously removed the safeguards which allowed it to happen; they looked the other way as they were warned what was to happen; and they let virtually everyone responsible skate, pocketing bonuses often in the hundreds of millions each.
Why is this important to this topic today? Old news, right? No. Because almost nothing got fixed after 2008. And according to the filmmaker, it’s happening all over again. Not just with mortgages, but with student loans, credit card loans, and other forms of debt which are being packaged up into bogus, junk-laden securities including derivatives.
Meanwhile, the stock market (in which I am still heavily invested, against my better judgement) keeps rising and rising. Even as the pre-pandemic problems which were already arising have been made doubly or triply worse by COVID. We can now add to the greed and recklessness of Wall Street and other allied, predatory forces a widespread concern about mass evictions, bankruptcies, small business failures, and the likelihood of wave after wave of additional bailouts... Most of which will go to those who do not urgently need them, or need them at all.
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I was completely convinced by this documentary, not only because it is really well-researched, but because its revelations dovetailed with much of what I already believed and suspected.
So, honestly I don’t know what to do. My investment approach for a long time has been guided by the “buy and hold” philosophy: minimizing fees, avoiding stock-picking in favor of a diverse array of index funds, and using a traditionally “safe” mix of stocks, bonds, currency, cash etc. The practitioners of this approach counsel against panic selling, and looking at things long-term.
But that approach is very much based in the idea that we have a fundamentally fair, transparent, regulated system. I am no longer confident our system is nearly as stable, honest and incorruptible as we would want to believe.
Thankfully, I own my own home and land, carry no debt, and have a decent emergency fund if everything goes to hell. But I am now leaning toward paring down investments to a level where I could accept and weather another market catastrophe. I also am trying to make sure that as far as resources I need to continue what I do, I amass those now, in the event that some lean times arrive. (For example, I’d rather buy a new tractor now, with the expectation that it will last 15-20 years and help me remain productive for the long term, rather than keep those funds in the stock market.)
So, honestly I don’t know what to do. My investment approach for a long time has been guided by the “buy and hold” philosophy: minimizing fees, avoiding stock-picking in favor of a diverse array of index funds, and using a traditionally “safe” mix of stocks, bonds, currency, cash etc. The practitioners of this approach counsel against panic selling, and looking at things long-term.
But that approach is very much based in the idea that we have a fundamentally fair, transparent, regulated system. I am no longer confident our system is nearly as stable, honest and incorruptible as we would want to believe.
Thankfully, I own my own home and land, carry no debt, and have a decent emergency fund if everything goes to hell. But I am now leaning toward paring down investments to a level where I could accept and weather another market catastrophe. I also am trying to make sure that as far as resources I need to continue what I do, I amass those now, in the event that some lean times arrive. (For example, I’d rather buy a new tractor now, with the expectation that it will last 15-20 years and help me remain productive for the long term, rather than keep those funds in the stock market.)
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P.S. I have not found a place where this can be watched in its entirety for free, but it can be rented for a month at Vimeo for $20 at the link below. The first episode may be out there for a free preview, but the entire series really needs to be seen in order to fully take stock of how effed up things are from top to bottom:
https://vimeo.com/ondemand/thecon
It’s devastating not only on the technical level, but in its storytelling. The filmmakers do a nice job of balancing the gory details of the mechanics of the con with personal stories which bring its effects into focus and hold viewers’ interest.
https://vimeo.com/ondemand/thecon
It’s devastating not only on the technical level, but in its storytelling. The filmmakers do a nice job of balancing the gory details of the mechanics of the con with personal stories which bring its effects into focus and hold viewers’ interest.
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Anyway, whatever one thinks will happen... If you are picking stocks (as some above appear to be), I think it is always a sound idea to remember to take some profit as you go up. It may be a bull market, but if it crashes you’ll want to have booked some of those gains.
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