Interesting river decision OOP vs a strong opponent ($1/3/10 game) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Senzrock
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Legend5555
Full House
What strong hands does hero have in range besides overpairs compared to villain and what does raising accomplish?
I don’t understand the passive play on the flop. There are very few safe cards that can come.
You are likely ahead on the flop unless he flopped a straight, and there aren’t many of those given that you raised/isolated preflop.
It would be weird for him to have a better pocket pair that he didn’t push harder pre. Sets possible, I guess.
I would have bet big to take it down on the flop and pretty much shut down if called.
You are likely ahead on the flop unless he flopped a straight, and there aren’t many of those given that you raised/isolated preflop.
It would be weird for him to have a better pocket pair that he didn’t push harder pre. Sets possible, I guess.
I would have bet big to take it down on the flop and pretty much shut down if called.
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If $100 was a value bet, and Villain has the range advantage with all of the sets and straights - why would hero raise?
Villain is behind on the flop, likely a draw. Raising him will get more money in the pot.
You just said his $100 bet is a value bet - which would imply that he's ahead. If he's drawing it's more of a blocker bet trying to name his price to hit his draw...
OP
OP
Here is how I have learned to think about spots like these. While we are often ahead on the flop, if a lot of money ends up going into this pot, we are not likely to emerge victorious. Being out of position against a tough opponent means that (unfortunately) we have to take a more cautious route. Imagine if you would us making a big cbet on the flop... and now our opponent shoves on us... what do we do? Do we put in $1200 with one pair that is very unlikely to ever improve? That's no fun. Do we bet/fold the flop having committed ~$350-500 already? What if opponent is doing this with a combo draw? That would be a *disastrous* fold for us. The betting big part on the flop sounds fine in theory, but the shutting down if called not so much.
So, with no perfection options, we re forced to play more passively in spots like these. It's not the end of the world. We can lure out bluffs and limit the damage vs monsters. Sometimes this is actually the way to get maximum value vs certain opponents. Does that make sense?
OP
OP
I will post the results later this evening - thanks for the good discussion on this spot!
Saxplayer
Pair
Looking forward to seeing the outcome.
Makes sense, but in this particular spot I am raising to $400 and I am expecting Villain to call.
This write up doesn’t bode well for all of us that said to call the 300 river bet lol
Agreed, playing out of position is a lot more difficult especially against competent players. If we are beat it didn’t cost us too much of our stack. If we aren’t beat we didn’t get much value out of it either aside from the river bluff villian tried if it is a bluff.
Looking forward to seeing the result!
Legend5555
Full House
For those looking for some rationale as to the flop check, think about it like this:
Who has more nut hands on this flop given the pre flop action?
Who has more medium strength hands?
Who has more draws/air
What the best way to get value when you have a medium strength hand against a range that is a lot of very strong hands and draws/air, but not much medium strength stuff?
Who has more nut hands on this flop given the pre flop action?
Who has more medium strength hands?
Who has more draws/air
What the best way to get value when you have a medium strength hand against a range that is a lot of very strong hands and draws/air, but not much medium strength stuff?
Putting a range in for the villain which includes lots of suited As, Ks and connectors/one-gappers, and even offsuit connectors down to 78o, plus all pairs TT or lower, my app still shows you as a 2:1 favorite on the flop. (I am assuming the Villain plays JJ+ more aggressively pre.)
Even if you play it relatively small/passively on three streets, you’re still going to put a ton of money in by the end and face very tough choices.
So I’d rather put pressure on at the flop, knowing I should be ahead 2/3 of the time, and that there are few if any safe cards to come. It costs less/similar to make a pot size+ bet early, and yes you can bet big on the flop and fold the rare times you get check-raised. Cost of doing business.
I say all this knowing there are plenty of monsters in the Villain’s range and given that this hand was posted there is a higher likelihood of one of those. But these are a small part of how he gets to the flop unless this V plays oddly imho.
Even if you play it relatively small/passively on three streets, you’re still going to put a ton of money in by the end and face very tough choices.
So I’d rather put pressure on at the flop, knowing I should be ahead 2/3 of the time, and that there are few if any safe cards to come. It costs less/similar to make a pot size+ bet early, and yes you can bet big on the flop and fold the rare times you get check-raised. Cost of doing business.
I say all this knowing there are plenty of monsters in the Villain’s range and given that this hand was posted there is a higher likelihood of one of those. But these are a small part of how he gets to the flop unless this V plays oddly imho.
Call.
V has AT?
$100 was checking if you had something stronger than 10s, but you didn’t bite. K had them worried, but you didn’t bite. So after the River, V thinks Tens are good.
They’re coming from a $2/$5 table and want to test the waters here- see how people bet and react.
V has AT?
$100 was checking if you had something stronger than 10s, but you didn’t bite. K had them worried, but you didn’t bite. So after the River, V thinks Tens are good.
They’re coming from a $2/$5 table and want to test the waters here- see how people bet and react.
megarises
Flush
Did we win???
OP
OP
RESULTS:
We tank call and are shown a hand we were not expecting - 66 for bottom set on the flop. The way we played it, and the fact that villain took a bet (small) / check / bet line, I don't think we can fold the JJ here on the river. I liked my line but just got unlucky obviously. I thought the hand brought up a number of interesting decision points on almost every street.
Thanks for playing along!
We tank call and are shown a hand we were not expecting - 66 for bottom set on the flop. The way we played it, and the fact that villain took a bet (small) / check / bet line, I don't think we can fold the JJ here on the river. I liked my line but just got unlucky obviously. I thought the hand brought up a number of interesting decision points on almost every street.
Thanks for playing along!
Fuck Jacob
OP
OP
Note that even though the hand didn't go our way, we basically lost close to the minimum in what is objectively one of the toughest spots in NLHE - having an overpair against a set vs a capable opponent. It's a spot where we are always going to lose some $$$ but I think we minimized our loses.
MrCatPants
Full House
And would have extracted the maximum from a hand like A10, T9, missed draws, etc.
MrCatPants
Full House
Tell Jacob some internet moron named MrCatPants thought he misplayed the hand on the turn.
I will definitely let him know and tell you what he says
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Okay I have read page 1 so far.
Also, I don't see a lot of one pair hands either. How many Tx can he call a raise with at this price? Maybe AT? If he has more than that, then again, he also has a lot of overcard air that misses as well.
I would bet about $150-$175 here. We might get called by some flush draws/straight draws, and what Tx villain can have. But we just don't want to give free cards away to weaker draws like gutshots or overcards.
I am going to pop this to at least $100. That's not at all out of line with 3 limpers, and a blind and a straddle yet to act.Action: UTG straddles to $10 and UTG +1 (strong player) limps in for $10 which has becoming more common as the action players have just been blind raising almost any hand to $50 preflop. This has meant that some of the regs have mixed in some limp-raises and limp-calling into their strategy (usually all of us would 100% come in for a raise if entering the pot). two more calls to me in the SB and I look down atinitial thoughts?
Love it
Hero (SB): Raise to $125
BB Folds
Straddle folds
UTG +1 Calls $125
HJ folds
BTN folds
Pot: $270
Flop: Tc7c6h
Action to Hero with
You probably have overpairs, the only set you could probably have is TT. You will have some unpaired misses too (AK, AQ)
Villian probably has the advantage of having more of the sets 77, 66 more likely in his range than ours. I don't see him on a lot of two pairs here, maybe 3 combos of T7s, and 76s but those would both be very loose calls pre at this price point. That said, if he has this in range, he probaby has a lot of suited holdings with high cards that missed this flop as well.
Also, I don't see a lot of one pair hands either. How many Tx can he call a raise with at this price? Maybe AT? If he has more than that, then again, he also has a lot of overcard air that misses as well.
Given we can have the overpairs and villian probably doesn't, nor are there many combos that beat hero, I would say this is good for our range.
Really this is only good for villain's range if he is calling a lot of low connectors pre.
I am going with yes, or otherwise, @buffalojim 's initial suggestion is probably correct. If we play to isolate, we just can't put villians on a set on every flop.But we are far from invincible, and we need to charge for a turn card here for sure.
I would bet about $150-$175 here. We might get called by some flush draws/straight draws, and what Tx villain can have. But we just don't want to give free cards away to weaker draws like gutshots or overcards.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I have read page 2.
I really think this is usually going to be a some sort of combo draw. Flush plus overcard type of hands. he may have binked the king with this sort of and and wants to get to showdown to see if he can make a flush. But it's also possible he was just trying to set up this exact situation to get the "free card" after the turn by betting the flop in position.
I think the check-call on the flop means you are playing this to bluff catch anyway, you are risking the draw-out to keep the swings down. I think as hero, you are going to check call most rivers here.
I can see going for a check-raise to put pressure on villian's weakest semi-bluffs, but if you take this line, you probably have to fold if villain finds a 3-bet-all in. Check call now means you are playing this for a bluff catcher.Pot: $270
Flop:
Hero checks
Villain thinks and bets $100
Hero calls (can't see an argument for much else here)
Checking here is consistent with playing this as a bluff catcher.Turn:
Hero checks (I'm checking full range here after just check-calling turn).
Villain: Checks
I really think this is usually going to be a some sort of combo draw. Flush plus overcard type of hands. he may have binked the king with this sort of and and wants to get to showdown to see if he can make a flush. But it's also possible he was just trying to set up this exact situation to get the "free card" after the turn by betting the flop in position.
I think the check-call on the flop means you are playing this to bluff catch anyway, you are risking the draw-out to keep the swings down. I think as hero, you are going to check call most rivers here.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I have read page 3.
I think you have set this up to bluff catch by check-calling flop. I don't think the river is at all scary and you can check call and win enough to justify it. I wouldn't be too surprised if you are shown a king here, particularly the :Kc:, but I think villain could play a lot of missed clubs this way as well.
Check-call-and-see.
River:
Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (UTG+1): Bets $300
I think you have set this up to bluff catch by check-calling flop. I don't think the river is at all scary and you can check call and win enough to justify it. I wouldn't be too surprised if you are shown a king here, particularly the :Kc:, but I think villain could play a lot of missed clubs this way as well.
Check-call-and-see.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
This raise would be for protection because villian probably has a lot of misses with one overcard in range as well if he's loose enough to have two-pair-plus on this flop.
So this is an argument for pot control. It makes sense, but then there really wasn't a lot of point in raising preflop if we are going to be scared of 3 undercards.
I mostly like your line too, but you do have to think hard about what flops you are looking for when you raise it pre. If flopping an overpair in a heads up pot is going to cause a slowdown, I then question the preflop raise.
BillyBrooks
Sitting Out
Throw up, swear, then crying call most likely.
ninedeuce
Two Pair
Thought this was an interesting hand, too. Ran it through GTOWizard, with some approximations that don't capture the nuances of your game structure (overlimpers, etc.), but seemed ok to me lol.
Let's assume 100bb eff (your hand was 120bb eff) and simplify to UTG+1 raises, you 3B in SB and he calls. The app suggests you check all the way post flop (like you did).
For villain's entire range, it suggests mostly taking the line he did - bet small, check turn, bet large on river. In that case, JJ mostly calls the river.
But for villain's specific flopped bottom set, it agrees with the small flop bet, but thinks he should bet the turn for 3/4 pot and then shove the river. In that line, JJ calls the turn 50% and folds river 100%.
At first glance, GTOWiz thinks you played the hand fine and villain lost a lot of value against your range.
Legend5555
Full House
And I'm sure the reason for this is it unblocks everything that will call and doesn't gain much by slow playing at any point. The hands that are going to give you value are mostly overpairs and big draws, none of which are folding very often. I'm sure 77 would also want to play this way.
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