Big O hand from Bill’s Michigan meetup (1 Viewer)

[mike32]

Ok so I’m probably going to screw this up and the cards are not exact but I’d love some feedback about my play! This was my last hand of the night at about 1 am and I’d been playing on one buy in of $140 for about seven hours. My stack was about $120 I think. @WedgeRock was in this hand so he can probably correct where I screw it up. It’s Big O and I hold draws to the nuts two ways to the high and there is no low yet. There is a $40 bet and call in front of me and I have $92 left in my stack, probably about $90 in the pot. There are 3 players in the hand, I think the third was K9dr. I shove for my $92 and both players call. River completed the low unfortunately for me (one player had a better low) and someone already had 7 9 for the high. My question is how bad was my shove? Thanks for playing along, here is approximate cards in my hand and on the board.

 

[Leonard]

Given the hands as shown a shove is perfectly reasonable.

You have 7 heart winners (9 less the T and 4 which are losers for you)
You have 10 cards that give you the nuts straight ( any 9, Q, K, A less the ones on the board and the hearts counted above)
The 3 non-heart deuces give you the nut low.

Pot pot pot. Blank. Re-buy.

Standard meet-up poker.

 

[detroitdad]

Given the hands as shown a shove is perfectly reasonable.

You have 7 heart winners (9 less the T and 4 which are losers for you)
You have 10 cards that give you the nuts straight ( any 9, Q, K, A less the ones on the board and the hearts counted above)
The 3 non-heart deuces give you the nut low.

Pot pot pot. Blank. Re-buy.

Standard meet-up poker.

I agree. It's not the 18 outs that at @Lil Tuna folded to my shove at the other table.

 

[woog30]

I'm shoving there everytime based on your stack size. If you have more behind it's a call.

 

[trever]

Your equity was somewhere between the mid 20's and very low 30's so an error, but not the end of the world.

What was the flop play? You should have potted/repotted the crap out of that flop.

 

[WedgeRock]

@Marc Hedrick was the other player, and the board is not exact. I think I had 98, not 97. My straight was already the at-the-time nuts.

But I think the shove was reasonable. Nut flush, nut straight, nut low were all in your draws. If you are comfortable in a draw-heavy, high variance game, this is the spot to get your money in. You just didn't hit your draw(s).

 

[mike32]

One of the reasons I posted this was because Tarlo got in my head! He was behind giving me shit about my play and I didn’t think I deserved it.

 

[detroitdad]

I was at the table, but wasn't paying any attention at all. I was only fantasizing about sleep during the hand

 

[detroitdad]

One of the reasons I posted this was because Tarlo got in my head! He was behind giving me shit about my play and I didn’t think I deserved it.

You let a mediocre player like @ThePunk get in your head

 

[WedgeRock]

Don't listen to Turtle Tarhole. I don't recall the PF and flop action, but there weren't big raises. My $35 or $40 turn bet was into about a $50 pot. When Marc called, the pot was $120 or $130, and you shoved for like $85 all day. I recall it was two more greenies for me to call your bet.

You might've pushed someone off that hand with bigger bets early, but you have to be willing to build a big pot in a draw that may never come. With that flop and that run-out, I think you're going broke every time.

 

[Lil Tuna]

I agree. It's not the 18 outs that at @Lil Tuna folded to my shove at the other table.

Only $30 invested and I gotta call my whole stack (almost $200) at the time to chop a measly $60-$90 pot that your already getting half of. Where I come from, that’s bad business even with all the outs.
My draws never got there either. GREAT LAY DOWN!!!!

 

[Lil Tuna]

You let a mediocre player like @ThePunk get in your head

Don’t let him mess with your head @mike32! He’s just trying to get you all screwed up before the tournament today.

 

[WedgeRock]

Tarlo lost to Keith heads up in a tournament. His criticizing privileges have been revoked.

 

[DrStrange]

I count Hero's outs this way: 3 kings, 3 queens, 3 jacks plus 4 nines = 13 nut outs for the sweeping high. We will ignore straight flush risks and make an offsetting assumption for the risks of chopping. 3 aces, 3 low, non-pairing hearts, 4 twos for half the pot. These are only outs for half the pot, so they are worth 5 outs.

Total of 18 outs or a bit more than 40% equity. What is the offsetting assumption? We assume Hero never wins a low hand without holding the nuts even though there will be times Hero somehow wins a low without the nut.

I think the jam makes all sorts of sense because it will fold out quite a few chopping or winning hands who do not hold all the draws Hero does. For example, a naked A2 might fold drawing to only half the pot with 16 outs and a chance of getting quartered. In big O there is a good chance every winning hand is in play. But many such hands can't continue on facing a big bet.

This is Omaha on steroids. The variance is high. Hero is +EV to jam but he will rebuy plenty of times.

DrStrange

 

[Kain8]

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

It’s a shove all day, Big O is just a high variance game. Honestly I’m getting as much in on the flop as possible too if I’m being honest.

 

[WedgeRock]

I count Hero's outs this way: 3 kings, 3 queens, 3 jacks plus 4 nines = 13 nut outs for the sweeping high. We will ignore straight flush risks and make an offsetting assumption for the risks of chopping. 3 aces, 3 low, non-pairing hearts, 4 twos for half the pot. These are only outs for half the pot, so they are worth 5 outs.

Total of 18 outs or a bit more than 40% equity. What is the offsetting assumption? We assume Hero never wins a low hand without holding the nuts even though there will be times Hero somehow wins a low without the nut.

I think the jam makes all sorts of sense because it will fold out quite a few chopping or winning hands who do not hold all the draws Hero does. For example, a naked A2 might fold drawing to only half the pot with 16 outs and a chance of getting quartered. In big O there is a good chance every winning hand is in play. But many such hands can't continue on facing a big bet.

This is Omaha on steroids. The variance is high. Hero is +EV to jam but he will rebuy plenty of times.

DrStrange

Next time, just PM @DrStrange. His answers are always right.