#### Larold

##### Pair

I've been wondering about something slightly different though, and my research is coming up short. (I can go off of experience, of which I have a lot, but I'd like to hear from others and if you all have thought about this.)

Instead of structuring a tournament to last X hours (until the 2nd-place player is knocked out), I'd like to start structuring tournaments a few different ways for experimentation, such as:

- Structuring a tournament so that the final table will be forming roughly X hours in

- [Variation on the above]: Structuring a tournament so that roughly Y% of folks are still in play at about the X hour mark

- Structure so that we get down to the money at roughly X hour mark

A potential way to think about this:

Imagine a graph / plot of time along the x axis (say, a bar graph with each bar being blind level 1, 2, ... n), and the y axis being the number of players eliminated during that blind level...

Yes, I get it depends on many factors - rebuys, add-ons, $$ being played for, caliber of players, etc. But let's aim for gross generalizations.

First, I can't help but think if we could magically plot every tournament in history, we'd generally see a trend of bell-curves, with a heavier weight on the right than on the left. The left half of the graph would be sparse - few people bust out early and don't rebuy, unless unlucky or weird situation. In fact, I'd almost be tempted to look at these imaginary graphs only from the end of the rebuy period.

In my head, I'm wondering how far to the right of the entire graph the bell curve really ramps up and peaks.

The reason I'm thinking about this is player psychology: I truly believe that most players, if they end up in the money, don't mind playing a little longer. I'd thus like to structure a tournament length based on the amount of time only a majority of the field will be in play, not the final two players.

So, thinking over your own experience playing and hosting tourneys, can you think of some generalizations you've come to found hold true a lot of the time? Random examples: how far into a total timeline do you think 75% of players are knocked out? For a 30-person freeze-out, what percentage of the total tournament time does it take to get to the final 5?

That kind of thing.