AA vs Old Man Coffee (1 Viewer)

DrStrange

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Playing 1-1 live, eight handed. It is midway through the session. This is a normal night for this game - loose, passive game slowly bleeding the weaker players but everyone is having fun. (For what it is worth, this is the first night my Empress set got into play.)

Cast of characters:

Hero is in middle position with $275 on a $100 buy in. Hero gets respect for his raises in this game a little more than the 1-2 game. So, hero has been a little more active but hasn't had to show a bluff. It has been a fine session. Hero is playing slightly loose, semi aggressive (but when aggressive we might be playing for stacks.)

Old Man Coffee is in late position with $80. OMC is looser in this game than the 1-2. The bets are in his comfort zone and he is willing to take more risks. OMC is observant and capable of ranging and floating. I'd guess he is a level two thinker at best.

The hand:

One limp to Hero who has :as: :ah:. Hero raises to $5 (normal sizing). Everyone but OMC folds. Two way action to the flop with $13 in the pot.

Flop :qd: :7c: :th:

Hero bets $10, villain calls. Two way turn action, $33 in the pot.

Turn < :qd: :7c: :th: > :kh:

Action on Hero. Bet or check? If betting, how much? If we have doubts about Hero's preflop or flop line, please say so.

DrStrange
 

bergs

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Playing 1-1 live, eight handed. It is midway through the session. This is a normal night for this game - loose, passive game slowly bleeding the weaker players but everyone is having fun. (For what it is worth, this is the first night my Empress set got into play.)

Cast of characters:

Hero is in middle position with $275 on a $100 buy in. Hero gets respect for his raises in this game a little more than the 1-2 game. So, hero has been a little more active but hasn't had to show a bluff. It has been a fine session. Hero is playing slightly loose, semi aggressive (but when aggressive we might be playing for stacks.)

Old Man Coffee is in late position with $80. OMC is looser in this game than the 1-2. The bets are in his comfort zone and he is willing to take more risks. OMC is observant and capable of ranging and floating. I'd guess he is a level two thinker at best.

The hand:

One limp to Hero who has :as: :ah:. Hero raises to $5 (normal sizing). Everyone but OMC folds. Two way action to the flop with $13 in the pot.

Flop :qd: :7c: :th:

Hero bets $10, villain calls. Two way turn action, $33 in the pot.

Turn < :qd: :7c: :th: > :kh:

Action on Hero. Bet or check? If betting, how much? If we have doubts about Hero's preflop or flop line, please say so.

DrStrange

Betting $30.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Kind of a crappy board for AA. Still, I overshove jam here. Maybe he folds two pair, and you have two blockers to him possibly having Broadway. It's not like you're ever folding AA anyway. Oh yeah, this is very important: if he calls, make sure to bink the not-heart jack.
 

stocky

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I would bet $20-$25 and jam any river. Omc could've been floating with AK hopefully not AJ. Either way with stack size I think it's going in anyway.
 

Mental Nomad

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I have him on KJ or KT, or else AT, and a slight chance of QJ. JT feels a little remote, but possible. I don't see most two-pair hands as likely, other than KT, because he would probably act differently on the flop - or else it's a holding with which he's unlikely to call the flop. There's also small chance of a set of sevens or tens being slow-played.

Mostly likely is that he has a pair and an open-ended straight draw. We should bet enough that he doesn't have odds to call - even if he considers implied odds on our call if he makes his straight. Because he only has $65 behind, a pot-sized bet of $33 will do it; he's getting 2:1 now, and will only be able to pump another $32 in later if he hits, so even with implied odds, he's only getting 3:1.

If this is wrong, and he already has two pair or a set, your downside is limited by the fact that he's only got $65 behind... you're not putting up the rest of your stack.

I make the pot-sized bet, and plan to check-call a river that looks like it makes a straight.
 

bivey

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Yeah, against a deeper stack, I might play much differently, but with OMC small stack, I think I bet enough to put him all in or close enough that it doesn't matter. Regardless of his holdings you have at least some outs. Against two pair, you have 8 outs as long as no flush draw in play. I hope he has 8-9 hearts and a blackjack hits the river.
 

Ben

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I'm checking behind; we're probably 50/50 against his range, and he's not going to stack off with the lower half. A check here will increase our chances of getting a value bet called by worse on the river, and save us money if beat. If OMC bets $30+ on river, I probably fold.
 

courage

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Betting $20 on turn. Would like to hear more about OMC's stack off and calling ranges. Doesn't strike me as the type to call off with one pair even short stacked. If raised on turn, it should mean a strong hand, K should have been a scare card for villain. If he flats, I probably check the river and evaluate.
 

DrStrange

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Hero bets $20. Old Man Coffee min raises to $40, leaving him with $25. Based on prior experience, villain will have better than one pair most of the time here. However we can't rule out AK or a pair + draw hand - OMC has been know to bet a draw occasionally. I think he is aware of his stack size and pot commitment. Thing is, villain min-raised. He seems to want a call.

OMC would likely have stacked off with AQ (top pair / top kicker) prior to the king on the turn. I don't know what he does with AQo, but I suspect he might be more inclined to call rather than raise hoping Hero's river bet was less than all-in. If OMC held :ah: :qh:, I could how the turn king would embolden him.

Shall we have hero fold, call or raise?

DrStrange
 

Ben

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How often would villain be in there with J9, if ever? If J9 is in his range, fold. If not, he's giving you odds to call against his 2 pair - have to take them. He doesn't have :ah::qh: since we have the :ah: - he has exactly KQ or KT (or J9.) Sadly, I'm still comfortable folding for the last $25 on the river if we don't improve.
 

Mental Nomad

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I don't rule out AKs for OMC. Hero has been running well, looser, and hasn't had to show a bluff... meanwhile, OMC is at "comfortable" stakes and willing to take a risk. I can see him putting hero on nonsense, or a single pair, and so calling with two overcards and an inside draw. Then, when hitting the king, a raise can be in order, both for value, and to set up a value bet in case the straight comes in on the river. It would be curious for him to have AQ and flat call the flop, and then wake on the king... But he may even have the other AA! JJ is more likely, though, and can explain a semi-bluff raise on the turn.

I say call his min raise and see the river... hoping for two pair or set of our own. If not, I think check-call is the right play; too much in the pot to throw it away for $25, given that he may have just a single pair, and if he's savvy, he may try to bet a busted draw to take down the pot.
 

DrStrange

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I seriously doubt villain has J9o, even J9s is questionable. Those hands are limpable by Old Man Coffee but not good for calling a raise with 85bb effective stacks.

I also wonder what Villain is thinking about Hero's hand. If he thinks about it, this board is going to hit hero's range really well. Even if Hero was c-betting a missed flop, the king on the turn makes AJ into the nuts and AK into TP/TK. Hero is very unlikely to be bluffing now - yet villain is raising.

DrStrange
 

Mental Nomad

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I also wonder what Villain is thinking about Hero's hand. If he thinks about it, this board is going to hit hero's range really well. Even if Hero was c-betting a missed flop, the king on the turn makes AJ into the nuts and AK into TP/TK. Hero is very unlikely to be bluffing now - yet villain is raising.

This is a very good argument. Implies villain has at least spiked kings, but more likely he has two pair or has been riding a flopped set. It's also possible he had kings and just turned the set, but it's hard to rationalize two flat calls with pocket kings.

Villain ought to be putting us on a least a pair... but you did say you were playing a bit loose and aggressive. If you flopped a weak queen, couldn't you be playing it the same way? Or if you came in with K-x suited, managed to get heads-up to the flop with such a small bet, then wouldn't you continue? He may not be so certain we have a pair, even though he thinks it's quite likely, and he's not guaranteed to think we have even top pair, never mind the aces. But yes, he should certainly be worried that we have a pair or two, with this flop. We have to assume he's being cautious, yet he's raising.

I think I still like my line - call the raise, check-call the river if youdon't improve. It doesn't quite seem correct to fold.
 

DrStrange

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Hero has been a little loose, but not anything close to LAG. Think raising with A8s or pocket fours or JTo - hands roughly in the 80th to 85th percentile. Hero is snagging one or two extra pots an hour {which might not seem like a lot but it will amount to 100bb by the end of a successful night}. Hero isn't playing Q6o or even K9s for a raise preflop.

DrStrange
 

Mental Nomad

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And you feel OMC's read is that accurate? I'm talking about his perception, not your hands.

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

I'm wondering whether he might think you're pushing your luck, and might intend to snap you off...

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

This has been a fruitful example to think about. Thanks.
 

bergs

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Is OMC capable of a post oak bluff against you? If not, fold. If he is, jam. I think you should be folding to the minraise.
 

bivey

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Hero has 12 outs vs two pair - the eight normal ones and four jacks for broadway.

DrStrange
Good point. Sorry, forgot to count the jacks. Of course the one exception is two pair with two hearts, and then 11 outs, but Q7hearts isn't in his range.
 

DrStrange

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*** and now the river ***

Hero calls. Two to see the river, $113 in the pot - $25 left behind.

River: < :qd: :7c: :th: > :kh: :ts:

Villain jams before Hero can act. Would anyone fold here for $25 more?

DrStrange
 

Mr Tree

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How the hell do you fold for $25...but at the same time I think you have virtually no chance of winning this pot.

By the math you need what, an 18% chance of having the best hand to call? I doubt I could fold here in RL but think it might be the right play.
 

jbutler

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i prob would have jammed turn to make sure i get the money in vs hearts when he's got a pair and FD, but yeah def calling river here.
 

fish72s

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I agree that we are most likely dead here but I still can't fold even if its just to see how we are beat.
But there is a chance that villain is putting you on a flush draw after just flatting the turn in which case $25 would be enough to get a fold.
 

Mental Nomad

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I can only see OMC with KJ, QJ, KT, or JT.

But it's $138 in the pot, and $25 to call - that's 5.5 to 1.

You said OMC is capable of level 2 thinking - if he's capable of an elaborate ruse while simultaneously being ignorant of the fact that you must have at least a pair, and perhaps better, you can call. But I have to throw this away - or else accept that he's not merely an Old Man Coffee.
 

DrStrange

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*** The end ***

Hero calls. Villain starts making a speech about how that ten didn't help AK and proudly tables :kc: :qs: "top two pair" Hero tables his aces "better two pair:. Villain seems a bit boggled by this turn of events and then mutters " I didn't put you on that".

In hindsight I realized that Hero was flirting with pot commitment with the first turn bet. Once Hero bets $20 and gets $20 more from villain there is $73 in the pot with $45 effective stacks and hero holding AA with redraws. I don't see any way to put on the breaks here, so maybe the moment of truth for pot commitment comes with the $10 flop bet? I don't know. Could be hero is locked into the hand from the moment the flop is tabled {SPR was <6 so maybe is committed on any "safe" flop}.

Hero did consider folding to villain's minraise but decided the redraw plus the chance villain is semi-bluffing were enough to continue. I think Hero should be jamming the turn rather than calling the turn and river just in case villain is semi-bluffing.

For what it is worth, here is how I ranged villain: main read is KQ, secondary QT / sets, possible J9 / pair+draw plus a tiny fraction of unexpected hands.

DrStrange
 

bergs

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*** and now the river ***

Hero calls. Two to see the river, $113 in the pot - $25 left behind.

River: < :qd: :7c: :th: > :kh: :ts:

Villain jams before Hero can act. Would anyone fold here for $25 more?

DrStrange

I can't fold here. Been in that spot with same (relative) stack sizes and a rivered two pair with overpair in my hand. With no flush on board, I call.
 

xt!

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late to the party here, but fold the turn always. old me min-raising the turn is never less than two pair. also, always call that river, for the points made above about pot size, and of course the obvious 'you now beat top two'
 

Mental Nomad

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Hahaha! I feel like an idiot for saying I fold; forgot hero holds two pair. It's funny, on Monday, when we were on the turn, I remember thinking that even if he has two pair, the river may put a pair on the board for us... even counted these as outs... and then, when the pair came, forgot about it!

<facepalm>

I am surprised he didn't raise on the flop with KQ, though.

I agree that this should have been bet harder earlier, to get the money in while good, since pot commitment was an issue, anyway.
 
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