50NL 6 max on ACR: Roast my line (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

Playing 50NL 6max on ACR with HUDs. V is aggro with like 36% VPIP and has a 17% 3 bet over about 80 hands. So not perfectly accurate but he has got to be 3 betting wide to get this % over 80 hands. He has 3 bet me almost every time I have opened and it has folded to him; I'm playing about 24/19.

Hero opens to $1.43 which is standard. Surprise, V 3 bets about 4x to $5.75. This is the third open it has folded to him and he has 3 bet me and this time I'm calling with what really is a marginal call but given I have position and he is 3 betting wide we're going for it.

Hero flats. Villain leads flop for about 1/4 pot.

I think - he is 3 betting so wide, can he really have a Q here? Only a small % of the time given 2 queens are out there.
If he has the Q, I have no outs and am drawing pretty close to dead. If he doesnt have the Q I have the best hand and can kick it up to hopefully get a fold.
Let's find out! Hero raises to 4x. I know when I make this bet that it is pretty binary - if he calls I am screwed: he has a Q or an over pair and I am done with the hand. I do think that this could generate a decent amount of FE if he doesnt have a Q or an over pair.
Put this in the solver and the raise frequency in this spot is 2%. Slightly higher with suits that hit the board. I had a hard time figuring out what a 17% 3 bet range would look like (just way too wide) so I went with like 11%. So not exactly a GTO decision to raise here.

Villain calls. Yikes!! Looks like he may really have the Q. Lucky bastid.

Oh yeah! Miracle turn. Let's jam if he has the Q! Only fearing QQ now and theres only 1 combo out there.

V calls and does not improve

 

[Moxie Mike]

I wish you hadn't posted the entire hand all at once but since you did...

Preflop: Open is obviously fine. In my experience, a 3-bet from a Villain in the BB who could call, closing the action but instead chooses to raise and play a large pot OOP usually has a strong hand. To that point, 80 hands is not a large enough sample size to determine if Villain's 17% 3-bet frequency is indicative of excessive aggression. It's very possible their just running good at the moment.

Flatting the 3-bet is fine. Re-raising is not advisable unless HERO is willing to play for stacks.

One the flop, I'm not too worried Villain had flopped trips. The smallish bet is kind of a 'please call me' bet, but it could also be from a hand like AK that didn't improve but could still be best. What queens are really in his 3-betting range? AQ and maybe KQ? Unless Villain really does have an excessively aggressive playing style, it seems very unlikely any of the weaker queens are in his 3-betting range unless he believes HERO has a high propensity of folding in situations like these. Since HERO didn't share much about Villain's playing style (other than his aggression) and haven't said much about your own, it's difficult to say much more than the general advice.

This flop really doesn't concern me much TBH. If Villain has an overpair, HERO was never ahead and should control the size of the pot by calling. If Villain holds AK and is more or less bluffing, HERO should call and allow Villain the opportunity to continue betting on future streets. Getting to showdown as cheaply as possible should be HERO's goal here. So I prefer a call on this flop.

After the flop action what is HERO putting Villain on here? They've shown strength on three occasions (preflop 3-bet, flop lead out, calling a big C/R) on a paired board with no immediate draws. Difficult to imagine HERO is ahead at this point. AA, KK, AQ, KQ, JJ and maybe even TT & 99 are all probably in Villain's range as played. QQ might even be a possibility.

On the turn I probably don't bet the full pot here when checked to. HERO has $32 left to bet and wants to get it all in but jamming risks Villain making a (correct) fold of any pocket pair fearing HERO holds the queen he represented with his flop raise. With $36 in the pot, a bet of $14, lays better than 3:1 for Villain to call. Difficult to fold what could very well be the best hand at that price (assuming he holds a pocket pair). If Villain calls $14, HERO can then bet the last $18 on the river into the $64 pot once again laying better than 3:1. I think structuring it this way would be the best way to maximize value.

 

[Shaggy]

What is the purpose of your flop raise? Are you bluffing? Are you value betting? If you're bluffing, I don't like it... if you're trying to rep a Q... a Q wouldn't raise in that spot. If its a value bet, you want AK to call. If you figure to be ahead and want to provide the wrong price to your opp to call... perhaps you did that. Was it to induce a check on the turn, so that you could check behind?

On the turn, I don't like such a big bet... with the near nuts. I think ~1/2 pot is better. It keeps the opp in and he'll call most rivers with anything that he'd call the turn with.

 

[Eriks]

Pre-flop: seems standard. It’s CO vs BB so he should be capable of being light here with the description in the op. Let’s say TT+/ATs+/KQs/some A2-A5s-combos/probably some 76s-KTs type hands. Can’t fold and I don’t like 4-betting small/medium pairs. We can’t really call if he shoves and we’re gonna end up folding to AK quite a bit.

Flop: Standard smallish c-bet on a paired board. Folding’s out of the question obviously. Raising has some merit I guess since we’ll be able to fold out a lot of his bluffs that still has 6 outs along with some possible backdoor straight/flushdraws. It does create some really awkward desicions on the turn if he calls though and it’s hard to rep a strong hand on this board. Do you ever raise a FH/Q here?

All things considered, I prefer a flat. Keeps his range wide and we do have position which will make the turn fairly easy to play. We probably call some and fold some depending on turn card. I think our goal here should be to try to see a cheap showdown rather than bloat the pot and put ourselves in tough spots.

Thank you for posting hands, it’s always fun to try and analyze!

 

[upNdown]

What is the purpose of your flop raise? Are you bluffing? Are you value betting? If you're bluffing, I don't like it... if you're trying to rep a Q... a Q wouldn't raise in that spot. If its a value bet, you want AK to call. If you figure to be ahead and want to provide the wrong price to your opp to call... perhaps you did that. Was it to induce a check on the turn, so that you could check behind?

That’s a very good question. It’s definitely the kind of mistake I’ve made before. I KNOW he doesn’t have a queen, so I’ll bet and he’ll fold.
The problem - that my story doesn’t make sense either - is easy to overlook.

 

[boltonguy]

My thinking was to bet to deny equity to hands behind me that could catch up on a turn or river. If I know that V doesn’t have a Q here my pair is vulnerable to a whole set of suited and off suit broadways, etc that can beat me on the turn and river if the right card comes. So my bet is to get those hands to fold now and deny them their equity realization on turn and river. Not repping a Q.

 

[skylines]

I like the line. Would you check back turn if you don't spike the 8? At that point I'd pretty much give up facing big aggression on the river if unimproved. Might call smaller bet if blanks on turn/river.

 

[boltonguy]

I like the line. Would you check back turn if you don't spike the 8? At that point I'd pretty much give up facing big aggression on the river if unimproved. Might call smaller bet if blanks on turn/river.

Yes if he called and I missed I was giving up, check/folding.

 

[Eriks]

Yes if he called and I missed I was giving up, check/folding.

That means you’re bluffing then. I wouldn’t choose a hand as strong as 88 for this play, a hand that has a good chance of being the best hand on the flop. I think a better candidate would be something like KJs/KTs with a backdoor fd. That way you block some of his Qx holdings, namely KQs/QJs/QTs and you can keep firing if the turn improves your hand to a flushdraw or straightdraw.