The bet is perfectly sized because the turn raise made the pot too small to just jam. We get called by lots of 9x, the straight, and induces bluffs. This bet isn’t thin at all. Stop getting hung up on “early in the tournament” (doesn’t matter) or “never bluffs” (if you go down this line of thinking you are exploitable). We should be first pumping to get it in here. It’s a cooler. Move on to the next one.
I disagree with just about all of this. I don't think it is a cooler at all. First of all this was a blind raise so there is no point in trying to put him on a range of hands. He can easily have any combination of hands. The flop action really tells us nothing. Most players will check every hand when first to act in a 5 way pot. Villian leads out on the turn and then calls a re raise. So we know he has something. The only thing we can say for sure, after the turn, is that he doesn't have 45. Any decent player is going to 4 bet that turn raise with the nuts and all those draws out there. So we are pretty sure he doesn't have 45. I also don't think he would have just a 9 (maybe but unlikley). Most players will fold there with 1 pair. So he probably has something like 2 pair, a set, or a combo draw. The dark check doesn't mean much, I've seen players do this with a variety of hands. It might indicate that they think they need help, but it doesn't always. Then the 9 comes. Now we have a full house. That's good if he had a combo draw, but he's not going to call your bet with a missed draw. If he has one of the other possible hands, then he very well could have just hit a bigger full house. I don't think checking behind on the river is nitty, I think it is the smart play. Then we have the 3k bet and he goes all in. Do you think he's bluffing? Do you think he has trip 9s and thinks they are good? Maybe 3 9s is good enough for a call, but good enough to shove? Why wouldn't he think you had atleast a straight? I think he could be bluffing, but he's definatley not shoving all in with a straight or trip 9s and thinking it's good.
It also absolutely does matter that it is early in the tournament. Not only for your play, but for your interpretation of the villians.
It also matters that this was a 5 way pot and a dark min raise. I have learned alot of very expensive lessons about getting too aggressive in a pot, with alot of people in it, when I don't hold the nuts.
I think there were quite a few mistakes made in this hand, including the turn raise, the river bet and the all in call.
I'm not saying fold. Call the turn bet, and call a reasonable bet on the river here. You have a strong hand, but this isn't a hand i want to get all of my money in with early in a tournament.
