I think I over value pocket pairs (1 Viewer)

[louBdub]

Just a realization, and I need to adjust my game.

Last 6 months of pocket pair’s getting crushed in heads up all in action. Enjoy the below saga of my constant deaths in the pocket pair death row


Minimal details, but I lost every hand below. Hero murdered, villain collects….

H:
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Some suits may be off, I took pics of a few. Every hand was minimal action, just heavy pre, lots of 3bets, ALL IN, and show, and Lady Luck decided it was time to teach me a lesson……. Again. And again. And again. And…….. yeah, you get the point.

I’m evaluating my game, adjusting, and learning.

Student mode in overdrive….

 

[JMC9389]

Eh, a good majority of those are just coolers.

The only hands I could maybe see getting away from are the one with queens and two aces, a king, and 4 diamonds on the board and the hand with two's and lots of overcards.

The rest I'd have to judge based on what the action was.

 

[doublebooyah85]

All I read was pocket pairs and heads up. Enough for me. I’m all in.

 

[Senzrock]

Just a realization, and I need to adjust my game.

Last 6 months of pocket pair’s getting crushed in heads up all in action. Enjoy the below saga of my constant deaths in the pocket pair death row


Minimal details, but I lost every hand below. Hero murdered, villain collects….

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Turn:

Some suits may be off, I took pics of a few. Every hand was minimal action, just heavy pre, lots of 3bets, ALL IN, and show, and Lady Luck decided it was time to teach me a lesson……. Again. And again. And again. And…….. yeah, you get the point.

I’m evaluating my game, adjusting, and learning.

Student mode in overdrive….

My first reaction is also that it’s just a bunch of bad runouts - it happens. What do you currently use for studying materials? You might want to just invest a bit more time in understanding board texture and when to pot control and when to extract max value.

 

[JustinInMN]

Seven bad run-outs in 6 months of play is not particularly noteworthy to be honest.

The problem is when people get the money in good, they round up their chances of winning to 100% and get frustrated that isn't how it works. Being a 70% favorite is common with pocket pairs and that means losing about 30% of the time.

 

[louBdub]

Seven bad run-outs in 6 months of play is not particularly noteworthy to be honest.

That makes me feel better. Say more stuff like that.

 

[Lil Tuna]

The problem with made hands is getting them to stick. Expand your poker discipline profit more.
NLHE only players drive automatics, “Card Players” can drive them all.

 

[louBdub]

The problem with made hands is getting them to stick. Expand your poker discipline profit more.
NLHE only players drive automatics, “Card Players” can drive them all.

You spoke to my soul with that…. Being a manual driver an all.

 

[Senzrock]

Seven bad run-outs in 6 months of play is not particularly noteworthy to be honest.

The problem is when people get the money in good, they round up their chances of winning to 100% and get frustrated that isn't how it works. Being a 70% favorite is common with pocket pairs and that means losing about 30% of the time.

I didn’t even catch that this was in a 6 month period, I thought this was one session!

 

[Senzrock]

My first reaction is also that it’s just a bunch of bad runouts - it happens. What do you currently use for studying materials? You might want to just invest a bit more time in understanding board texture and when to pot control and when to extract max value.

Still this advice though

 

[Lil Tuna]

You spoke to my soul with that…. Being a manual driver an all.

I knew you’d understand.

 

[Saoliver]

Just a realization, and I need to adjust my game.

Last 6 months of pocket pair’s getting crushed in heads up all in action. Enjoy the below saga of my constant deaths in the pocket pair death row


Minimal details, but I lost every hand below. Hero murdered, villain collects….

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Turn:

Some suits may be off, I took pics of a few. Every hand was minimal action, just heavy pre, lots of 3bets, ALL IN, and show, and Lady Luck decided it was time to teach me a lesson……. Again. And again. And again. And…….. yeah, you get the point.

I’m evaluating my game, adjusting, and learning.

Student mode in overdrive….

Regarding JJ, the video below will help you. You’re welcome.

 

[DrStrange]

I suggest Hero make careful distinctions between hands / situations. All-in preflop with the best hand that ends up losing is totally different from stacking off post flop with an over pair.

Tournament thinking vs cash game.

Stack depths matter. Same thing with the number of players. Multiway vs heads up.

I hope we get the idea that the discussion is more complicated than "my pocket pair lost"

It might be true Hero is overplaying pocket pairs. But without knowing how, when and why there is little way to correct leaks. Making a list of all the hands lost where a pocket pair didn't hold up is not telling Hero much. In fact, it might be guiding him into making a mistake.

 

[allforcharity]

I absolutely hate JJ. I got it twice in a tourney last night. I actually won one pot because I made a set on the flop. I got eliminated from the tournament when JJ < AKo, natch.

AA is also not very kind to me. The odds are, what, 80% to win outright? I'm pretty sure I'm below 50%.

 

[ekricket]

After listening to thousands of real life situations I’m pretty sure all that math and odds and stuff is not correct. Somebody made a terrible error about 100 years ago and it continues to perpetuate. There seems to be another force at work besides basic probability.

 

[louBdub]

After listening to thousands of real life situations I’m pretty sure all that math and odds and stuff is not correct. Somebody made a terrible error about 100 years ago and it continues to perpetuate. There seems to be another force at work besides basic probability.

This. Fuck math. Egyptians. Aliens. And somewhere in there a Chinese dynasty that lied to me about carrying the 1….

Math is dumb. (Or maybe I am, but I’ll blame math)

 

[wickedwonka121]

Just a realization, and I need to adjust my game.

Last 6 months of pocket pair’s getting crushed in heads up all in action. Enjoy the below saga of my constant deaths in the pocket pair death row


Minimal details, but I lost every hand below. Hero murdered, villain collects….

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Turn:

Some suits may be off, I took pics of a few. Every hand was minimal action, just heavy pre, lots of 3bets, ALL IN, and show, and Lady Luck decided it was time to teach me a lesson……. Again. And again. And again. And…….. yeah, you get the point.

I’m evaluating my game, adjusting, and learning.

Student mode in overdrive….

As long as you push early to weed out lames preflop, you did your job. Letting those hands limp will chop your chances considerably.

 

[Lil Tuna]

This. Fuck math. Egyptians. Aliens. And somewhere in there a Chinese dynasty that lied to me about carrying the 1….

Math is dumb. (Or maybe I am, but I’ll blame math)

Use the force Lou!

 

[LotsOfChips]

Some of this is variance, but a lot depends on if you are jamming pre OOP or waiting for the flop to see what transpires.

Stack size also matters. In a tournament if you jam w/<6 BB, the monster stack w/>60BB has little reason to fear you, and will often call when behind but suck out with suited and/or connected, or with overcards.

Position counts. if you are in position and everyone ahead of you has shown weakness, then sure, jam away. But jamming weak pairs pre OOP is asking weak hands to fold and strong hands to play. JJ against AK pre is pretty much a coin toss.

At certain times in a tournament, shoving pre-flop with weak pairs (TT and lower) is asking to go home early. Maybe better to do a pot size bet to thin, and then evaluate the flop. Use caution on paired, connected or overcard flops. Continue to apply pressure, but know that if a guy is sticking around, he may either already have you beat, or is on a draw. If a possible flush or straight draw completes on the turn or river, pot control may be prudent. If he three bets or jams on a scare card, at low stakes the odds are that he has the goods.

 

[PlaidDragon]

Just a realization, and I need to adjust my game.

Last 6 months of pocket pair’s getting crushed in heads up all in action. Enjoy the below saga of my constant deaths in the pocket pair death row


Minimal details, but I lost every hand below. Hero murdered, villain collects….

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Flop:

H:
V:
Board:

H:
V:
Turn:

Some suits may be off, I took pics of a few. Every hand was minimal action, just heavy pre, lots of 3bets, ALL IN, and show, and Lady Luck decided it was time to teach me a lesson……. Again. And again. And again. And…….. yeah, you get the point.

I’m evaluating my game, adjusting, and learning.

Student mode in overdrive….

Variance happens. Sometimes badly.

A month or so ago I had back to back hands with Aces.... and they got cracked back to back.

The first one was versus a CS who had no idea he should have folded given my preflop pressure, followed by my raise all-in post-flop on a J high unconnected board. The villain called again showing 10,7 and then hit his runner-runner for a straight. Aces bust #1.

Incidentally, someone else took the CS out less than an orbit later. That one still stings.

The second A,A hand I was a lot more conventional. Villain raises from UTG, I three-bet all in with my remaining 9-10 BBs. Villain has me covered and calls with J,J. Flop has a J. Aces bust #2. Game over.

One just has to get beyond garbage like this and realize that over the long term it WILL even out. It obviously sucks at the time; yet, I'd bet the exact same way if such a situation happened to me again.

 

[louBdub]

Variance happens. Sometimes badly.

A month or so ago I had back to back hands with Aces.... and they got cracked back to back.

The first one was versus a CS who had no idea he should have folded given my preflop pressure, followed by my raise all-in post-flop on a J high unconnected board. The villain called again showing 10,7 and then hit his runner-runner for a straight. Aces bust #1.

Incidentally, someone else took the CS out less than an orbit later. That one still stings.

The second A,A hand I was a lot more conventional. Villain raises from UTG, I three-bet all in with my remaining 9-10 BBs. Villain has me covered and calls with J,J. Flop has a J. Aces bust #2. Game over.

One just has to get beyond garbage like this and realize that over the long term it WILL even out. It obviously sucks at the time; yet, I'd bet the exact same way if such a situation happened to me again.

I agree.

Thanks for the input and fellow cracked AA stories haha

 

[Mike mac]

this one hurt

 

[LotsOfChips]

Yeah, I shouldn't have posted in this thread. Last night in an online tourney I raised AA to 420 (21BB) pre from the CO with 2 limpers and the blinds still in. Button insta-jammed to 3340, and UTG calls. for 3340. I'm not folding here, so I call my remaining 1460, and the cards show Button = JJ, UTG = 9s6s (???) and me with AA. Of course the flop comes TdJsQs and my only hope is for a non-spade K or runner-runner spades, both of which fail to magically arrive.

F#%^king Variance!

 

[louBdub]

Yeah, I shouldn't have posted in this thread. Last night in an online tourney I raised AA to 420 (21BB) pre from the CO with 2 limpers and the blinds still in. Button insta-jammed to 3340, and UTG calls. for 3340. I'm not folding here, so I call my remaining 1460, and the cards show Button = JJ, UTG = 9s6s (???) and me with AA. Of course the flop comes TdJsQs and my only hope is for a non-spade K or runner-runner spades, both of which fail to magically arrive.

F#%^king Variance!

This thread will now become a curse. Avoid posting here or your pocket rockets will be duds

 

[Nerxa]

I absolutely hate JJ. I got it twice in a tourney last night. I actually won one pot because I made a set on the flop. I got eliminated from the tournament when JJ < AKo, natch.

AA is also not very kind to me. The odds are, what, 80% to win outright? I'm pretty sure I'm below 50%.

Holding AA on boards that do not favor one pair hands is the premium leak players have. I make lots of money out of it

 

[KHarp1]

View attachment 1089894


this one hurt

This reminds me of a hand I had almost 20 years ago. I think I had JJ, was in middle position and limped. I learned a lesson that night on an unraised BB.

Hopefully this was an unraised blind, otherwise I'm not sure how I would react to a call like that. I'm sure some level of PH would surface, maybe worse.

 

[allforcharity]

Holding QQ last night. Bohemian Rhapsody comes up on the Spotify list. Flop is something totally undangerous like 2 7 J rainbow. I figured it must be a sign from God. I jam.

Into AA. Rebuy!

 

[Senzrock]

This thread is so tilting lol

 

[LotsOfChips]

@louBdub , you need to rename this thread to “The Pocket Pairs Bad Beat Thread”.

 

[louBdub]

I BROKE THE CURSE

Yesterday:

, two others go all in preF, action gets to me, I shove as well……. I hit quads!

Another:
I limped …. Flopped another , villain hit , he raises big, I “tank”, and call….. Trap set, turn comes, villain has big slick, bets BIG again, I “regretted my call” - river, brick, he packs another $20 in, I call again (playing nice poker, I knew I trapped him in a hole of fuck) and I called. My pocket rockets have had a successful mission to planet value.

Last one, I have cowboys, limped them again, lots of action on the table, I call it all each time it gets to me, I flop another for 3 Kings of power, won a big pot there too.

I felt great again, no more pocket pairs deaths…. Lady Luck was with my yesterday

@Josh Kifer card capper must have done it, that thing is lucky…!