25NL Zone on Ignition: Do you jam turn here or am I leaving money on the table (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

HJ opens to 3BB (standard), hero flats 78s on BN, BB calls.

Hero flops an OESD & BDFD. X to hero who bets 1/2 pot hoping there is an A out there.
BB calls, HJ folds. BB checked to the PFR so could hold an ace. Range also includes 55, 66, 34s. Hero blocks some other suited combos such as 47s.

Turn is very good for Hero's exact hand, making the straight and further developing the BDFD. Hero bets half pot again. V X/R to 20BB.
Hero thinks about raising to 3x but then I'd only have 21 BB behind, so I decide on a jam.

Hero jams and V folds. I'm removing two diamonds making it less likely that V has a diamond draw, but if he does it's likely AdXd based on the flop call. Or a set.
Do you jam or just call here? I feel like jamming I may have left money on the table.
If the river paired the board or completed the FD and V jammed I think it would be a difficult call. That was a big part of my logic for jamming. Thoughts?

 

[tabletalker7]

What's that one line from Moneyball say? "When your opponent is making a mistake don't interrupt them". You interrupted them. Just call and let them fully believe their own garbage.

 

[MrCatPants]

HJ opens to 3BB (standard), hero flats 78s on BN, BB calls.

View attachment 807147

Hero flops an OESD & BDFD. X to hero who bets 1/2 pot hoping there is an A out there.
BB calls, HJ folds. BB checked to the PFR so could hold an ace. Range also includes 55, 66, 34s. Hero blocks some other suited combos such as 47s.

View attachment 807148

Turn is very good for Hero's exact hand, making the straight and further developing the BDFD. Hero bets half pot again. V X/R to 20BB.
Hero thinks about raising to 3x but then I'd only have 21 BB behind, so I decide on a jam.

View attachment 807150

Hero jams and V folds. I'm removing two diamonds making it less likely that V has a diamond draw, but if he does it's likely AdXd based on the flop call. Or a set.
Do you jam or just call here? I feel like jamming I may have left money on the table.
If the river paired the board or completed the FD and V jammed I think it would be a difficult call. That was a big part of my logic for jamming. Thoughts?

View attachment 807152

There are probably some losing river cards - either certain diamonds that don't make your OESFD or certain paired boards. It'll kill action and you may end up with a loser. If he's got a set or an ace high flush draw you have just enough behind that it would force him to make a bad call if he made it. I like the shove over the check raise as they chance you get a bad call here is better than the chance that you get any more money in good on the river.

 

[boltonguy]

Yeah if I think about what I'm X/R as V there its either a set not liking the FD or the NFD calling flop with a paired A.
I'll D/L the hole cards tomorrow.

 

[Frogzilla]

prefer just calling when u have the diamond redraw.

Makes sense to shove other 78 at this stack depth to deny equity from diamonds, deny equity or get value from sets depending if the set wants to call.

 

[boltonguy]

Trying to solve this but GTO would have been to overbet turn with all combos of 78s, so when I bet 1/2 pot and he jams my range is empty. Let me see if I can figure out how to address this.

 

[boltonguy]

If I node-lock my turn move and bet 1/2 pot V has no raising range based on the range I put him on here

 

[boltonguy]

I guess if neither one of us is playing GTO, the solver cant help here!
Note to self to overbet turn with this hand!

 

[boltonguy]

Snowie is good with the 1/2 pot turn bet ...

 

[boltonguy]

And Snowie likes the jam as a pure strategy here

 

[boltonguy]

Interestingly this is the range of hands Snowie estimates for V. I dont see your average 25NL ignition player raising here with though ...

 

[boltonguy]

Note that Snowie prefers the 1/2 pot raise size, and mixes raise / call at 78% / 22% even though the EV of that size is 51.52 and the EV of jamming is 66.22. Strange that it prefers the lower EV line ... that would be a $49 raise leaving $38.29 with a pot of $116 of V calls. Not sure I understand the logic of leaving a 1/3 pot bet for a river shove with zero fold equity based on sizing. This is a big part of why I jammed.

 

[skylines]

seems like V would check back most hands on the river, unless it changes the nuts. maybe you get one more bet if he has a set or top 2, but a lot of action killing rivers. on another diamond or board pair you still have to call and could be beat. agree a bigger turn size was best, but as played i dont think call vs jam is a big mistake. (disclaimer - im not good)

 

[Legend5555]

As played, I think you should just call. There aren't a ton of bad rivers and you have position. If he has value, then you might miss some value when the river is a diamond or pairs, but you get all the money in either way if he has a set typically. And if he has a bluff, you need to let him bet again.

 

[boltonguy]

Didnt think V would be raising with this combo

 

[FDLmold]

Maybe he thought it was an 8 on the turn and mis-clicked? You weren't getting any more money out of that guy.