10NL ACR Blitz: Thoughts on Flop & Turn play? (1 Viewer)

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boltonguy

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10NL ACR Blitz during lunch. I have a smallish sample on the primary V in BB so showing HUD stats.
LJ RFI to 2.5 BB, Hero in CO 3! to 9BB with AKo, BB cold calls and LJ calls. Going 3 ways.

1643819907824.png


Flop gives me TP but both sets are in V's ranges so I bet small (1/4) pot. BB raises to about 3x. LJ folds. Hero?

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You kill me with these games....short answer fold pre and find a better game!

Long answer....

In game, I probably just call, but I think theoretically you should probably reraise here. Sets are USUALLY going to wait to check raise the turn. Straight draws or other aces will USUALLY be your check/raise here. A9 or A8 would scare me more than sets right now.

EDIT: If I was forced to put V on an EXACT hand right now, I would put him on JTs with a backdoor flush....best case for V would be JT in hearts. (from your pics, I know I am incorrect)
 
Ugh...

I hate every option.

BB "shouldn't" be calling with stuff that makes an open ender here, which is the obvious bluff. Villain can have 99 or maybe 88, but so can you sometimes. Villain can also have some AK, especially offsuit. So, does villain ever have AQ and play this way?

If he can have AK or any AQ, and would never play TT-QQ as a bluff, I think you have to just call down. If he can ever have JTs, then it makes it even easier as there are just way more combos you beat than are beat by.

I don't think you can ever get him off a chop given the stack depth. So just call down and pray.
 
MY check/raise range....
 

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grebe said:
MY check/raise range....
Click to expand...
Running this range makes us almost 4:1 favorites. Adding in 99 and 88 we are still 3:1.

EDIT: this makes me confident a reraise is the right play. Sizing is icky...probably just jam allin....but I could see the merits of a min raise as well.
 
How often is a 3! cold caller in the BB going to have two pair here? I mean granted, there are bad players out there. But if we are going to analyze this properly, we shouldn't assume those hands are represented here often enough to really consider, should we?
 
Legend5555 said:
How often is a 3! cold caller in the BB going to have two pair here? I mean granted, there are bad players out there. But if we are going to analyze this properly, we shouldn't assume those hands are represented here often enough to really consider, should we?
Click to expand...

More often than should be for optimal play. Hell, I consider myself decent and I dusted off $100 running a bluff in to QQ blind vs. blind yesterday with 58s. Maybe I should reconsider my ranking of myself, but still....it is 10nl.
 
grebe said:
More often than should be for optimal play. Hell, I consider myself decent and I dusted off $100 running a bluff in to QQ blind vs. blind yesterday with 58s. Maybe I should reconsider my ranking of myself, but still....it is 10nl.
Click to expand...
My point is that we should analyze hands as if people roughly know what they are doing unless we have a reason to think otherwise.
 
For a cold call of a 3! OOP against both raisors? Yeah. What the hell are you hoping for? I'd rather cold 4!
 
I am in CO with AKo, LJ RFI to 2.5BB, I 3! to 9BB and BB cold called.
I think my 3! in CO with AKo is standard here
 
Ok we'll continue: LJ RFI to 2.5 BB, Hero 3! to 9BB in CO, BB cold calls, LJ calls. Going 3 ways to the flop.

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Hero bets 1/4 pot. BB raises to 22BB, LJ folds.
My first instinct was to raise here but I dont think I have the nut advantage.
Most of the time random V would not raise a set here without a FD, but could be A8s or A9s worried about me having better Ax and hitting two pair on later streets. So I did decide to just call.

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Turn is a 7 and V jams. Hero?

1643823359092.png
 
That turn is gross.

So if he could have JTs (which he really shouldn't), then that 4 not combos that got there.

So there are 10 combos that have you beat. And if we give him all the other AK, and AQs, that's 12 combos we beat/tie. But additionally, how many betters do we have here? I assume we can have 99 in addition to AA, as well as some JTs. So I think we actually have a decent number of better hands. Using we can still use MDF even though we aren't at the river because the texture of this hand is such that we have no outs to better hands in villains range. And his outs with worse are slim.

If there are some ties, then our MDF is actually slightly worse since we aren't winning the whole pot. Seems like from the math, we might have to fold as AK is bottom 50% of our range, or close to it.
 
So I am substantially cutting back on calling jams as it has been unprofitable lately. I wanted to fold but the hand just didnt make sense. He is pushing fold equity so hard here. So I called.

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And then of course *BINK* and I am on tilt and doing deep breathing exercises!
I would like to think that raising flop would have gotten a fold here.

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boltonguy said:
Turn is a 7 and V jams. Hero?
Click to expand...
Ugh. I probably fold as played....like I said, I think most likely line he does this with is JTs. It got there and you gotta trust your read.

If I would have had the stones to reraise flop, then I call it off here.
 
I know - especially the flop raise - the A hits my range hard. With my call he has to know he's behind so jamming turn he is hoping for his OESD or a 5 to bail him out so 10 outs or 20% quick math. Not sure I'm jamming turn with 10 outs after my opponent called the X/R with an A on the flop.

I'll get that guy next time.
 
boltonguy said:
I know - especially the flop raise - the A hits my range hard. With my call he has to know he's behind so jamming turn he is hoping for his OESD or a 5 to bail him out so 10 outs or 20% quick math. Not sure I'm jamming turn with 10 outs after my opponent called the X/R with an A on the flop.

I'll get that guy next time.
Click to expand...
He didn't even have an open ender. Just a gutter to the bad end.
 
boltonguy said:
D'oh you're right so he jams with 6 outs!!??
Click to expand...
This is the thing about fast fold though, it's cool when you pick off people going crazy like this, but unless LOTS of the pool is doing this, you're better off assuming they are playing reasonably.

I don't actually know what the GTO response should be. But I think if my range analysis is correct, it's probably a fold or a marginal +EV call on turn. Maybe we are supposed to call partially with AK. But GTO would probably have a hard time analyzing this because it basically never cold calls 3 bets.
 
boltonguy said:
D'oh you're right so he jams with 6 outs!!??
Click to expand...
I did exactly the same lately against a good, loose and very aggressive player, and got lucky. We went all-in, ran it twice and chopped (1st board I made trips but his set was upgraded to full house; 2nd board I got my gutshot straight).
I promise I won't do it again.:)
 

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