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Super Bowl point spread - what does Vegas know? (1 Viewer)

Ronoh said:
Think they are full but I'd offer a percentage (up to half) of mine if you like.

#Ronohflips
Click to expand...

Oops. I guessed I read through it too quickly.

I'll take you up on that. I'll take anywhere between $20-50, whatever you prefer.
 
bentax1978 said:
Oops. I guessed I read through it too quickly.

I'll take you up on that. I'll take anywhere between $20-50, whatever you prefer.
Click to expand...
Sounds good. As you wanted a full $100 we'll go 50/50... some of that Bentax rungood can only help my chances ;)
 
For anyone interested. I calculated the strength of schedule adjusted yards per play for offensive and defensive stats. This is far more predictive of future success than is previous points scored or previous points allowed. This adjusts each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies for the respective offenses and defenses they played against. I took a similar mathematical approach as what Michael Beuoy does here: http://community.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/one-of-more-interesting-components-to.html

There are of course other metrics that could be added to tell a more complete story, and if handicapping the game, I would, but you'd be hard pressed to find a better metric to quantify a team's offensive and defensive overall value than these.

Defensive Yards Per Play Allowed - Adjusted for opponents:
Rank Team Def.YPP
1 ARI 4.699
2 DEN 4.776
3 SEA 4.852
4 JAX 4.916
5 NE 4.976
6 HOU 5.092
7 MIN 5.143
8 BAL 5.225
9 NYG 5.225
10 LA 5.288
11 CIN 5.356
12 CHI 5.397
13 TEN 5.408
14 NYJ 5.417
15 DAL 5.431
16 SD 5.432
17 PIT 5.455
18 BUF 5.469
19 MIA 5.476
20 ATL 5.51
21 KC 5.593
22 WAS 5.7
23 CAR 5.751
24 PHI 5.875
25 IND 5.893
26 DET 5.913
27 NO 5.97
28 GB 5.977
29 SF 5.989
30 CLE 6.012
31 TB 6.044
32 OAK 6.119

Offensive Yards Per Play Gained - Adjusted for opponents:
Rank Team Off.YPP
1 ATL 6.847
2 WAS 6.441
3 NO 6.206
4 DAL 6.106
5 CHI 6.034
6 PIT 5.843
7 NE 5.734
8 GB 5.729
9 SD 5.724
10 TEN 5.708
11 MIA 5.704
12 SEA 5.675
13 OAK 5.643
14 KC 5.585
15 IND 5.54
16 DET 5.533
17 BUF 5.46
18 ARI 5.417
19 CIN 5.372
20 NYG 5.315
21 CAR 5.257
22 DEN 5.203
23 TB 5.193
24 BAL 5.173
25 JAX 5.143
26 NYJ 5.135
27 MIN 5.089
28 PHI 4.987
29 CLE 4.945
30 SF 4.741
31 HOU 4.693
32 LA 4.257
 
Last edited:
legend672 said:
So far....
1-Legend 672
2-Guinness
3-Ssanel54
4-Ronoh
5-PAZ
6-72o
7-Kirchausen
8-links-slayer
9-biscohead
10- Keith the butcher
Click to expand...


I guess we'll keep this order unless anyone wants to change it up.

Tomorrow night mass daily number will be the key. So if the number is 8478.....
Legend -8
Guinness -9
Ssanel -0
Ronoh -1. Etc....

Comments ?questions ? concerns? complaints ? ( my finance professor used to say this at Northeastern used to say this. Think his name might have been a Duncan Ketowicz)
 
We all just shipping to the winner in the $100 pool?
 
I'd prefer that everyone paid up front, but if you'll are cool with that way, it's ok by me.
 
Doesn't matter to me, just hadn't received payment info so figured I'd ask ;)
 
RainmanTrail said:
For anyone interested. I calculated the strength of schedule adjusted yards per play for offensive and defensive stats. This is far more predictive of future success than is previous points scored or previous points allowed. This adjusts each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies for the respective offenses and defenses they played against. I took a similar mathematical approach as what Michael Beuoy does here: http://community.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/one-of-more-interesting-components-to.html

There are of course other metrics that could be added to tell a more complete story, and if handicapping the game, I would, but you'd be hard pressed to find a better metric to quantify a team's offensive and defensive overall value than these.

Defensive Yards Per Play Allowed - Adjusted for opponents:
Rank Team Def.YPP
1 ARI 4.699
2 DEN 4.776
3 SEA 4.852
4 JAX 4.916
5 NE 4.976
6 HOU 5.092
7 MIN 5.143
8 BAL 5.225
9 NYG 5.225
10 LA 5.288
11 CIN 5.356
12 CHI 5.397
13 TEN 5.408
14 NYJ 5.417
15 DAL 5.431
16 SD 5.432
17 PIT 5.455
18 BUF 5.469
19 MIA 5.476
20 ATL 5.51
21 KC 5.593
22 WAS 5.7
23 CAR 5.751
24 PHI 5.875
25 IND 5.893
26 DET 5.913
27 NO 5.97
28 GB 5.977
29 SF 5.989
30 CLE 6.012
31 TB 6.044
32 OAK 6.119

Offensive Yards Per Play Gained - Adjusted for opponents:
Rank Team Off.YPP
1 ATL 6.847
2 WAS 6.441
3 NO 6.206
4 DAL 6.106
5 CHI 6.034
6 PIT 5.843
7 NE 5.734
8 GB 5.729
9 SD 5.724
10 TEN 5.708
11 MIA 5.704
12 SEA 5.675
13 OAK 5.643
14 KC 5.585
15 IND 5.54
16 DET 5.533
17 BUF 5.46
18 ARI 5.417
19 CIN 5.372
20 NYG 5.315
21 CAR 5.257
22 DEN 5.203
23 TB 5.193
24 BAL 5.173
25 JAX 5.143
26 NYJ 5.135
27 MIN 5.089
28 PHI 4.987
29 CLE 4.945
30 SF 4.741
31 HOU 4.693
32 LA 4.257
Click to expand...

This must be broken if Jacksonville cracks top 5
 
They actually had one of the toughest schedules, and their defense is pretty good. The strength of schedule adjustment gives them quite a boost. But they can't score for shit, obviously.
 
72o said:
Sorry but what exacty does that mean? Do I have 2 or 4?
Click to expand...
I believe you have 2. If commish could verify and repost list with official numbers to avoid any possibility of confusion that would be good ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: 72o
7- legend672
8- Guinness
9- Ssanel54
0- Ronoh
1- PAZ
2- 72o
3- Kirchausen
4- links-slayer
5- biscohead
6- Keith the butcher

Those should be the official numbers. Again, wait for commish to verify.
 
Thanks ronoh. Let's hope it ends up crazy exciting with decisions on going for 2 or long field goals that look like they're hooking wide and drift back inside the goalpost
 
Oh yeah, I love poker chips . They are good and nice and cool and beauty full
 
Legend, wake up, what are the numbers? Also, assuming paypal friend payment (no fees). Send all the crap via PM before I'm too drunk to type (or can settle up tomorrow). I want my sweat now though!!

GO PATS

TimPats.jpg
 
If anyone wants to offset some of their action, I am in for up to $50.
 
Anyone want additional action? I'll take ATL and the 3 points for $50.
 

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