Super Bowl point spread - what does Vegas know? (1 Viewer)

[upNdown]

I'm a Patriots homer, but I also try to be a critical thinker, and I watch a lot of football and play around with statistics a bit.
What I've seen tells me that the Patriots' offense is just a tic below the Falcons, and that the Patriots defense is significantly better than the Falcons.
That alone is enough for me to project a Patriots win. But when I figure in the huge advantage the patriots have with the experience of their head coach and QB, the significant advantage of the Patriots' players playoff experience overall, and the Patriots' institutional super bowl experience advantage, the Patriots seem like a no-brainer to me.
But Vegas set the line at 3, and it hasn't moved. And I've heard 60-65% of the money has come in on the patriots - not sure if that's true; it certainly doesn't make much sense, considering the line hasn't moved.
I wonder what Vegas is looking at, that I'm not seeing.
People say the Patriots had a cream puff schedule, but I'm not sure I agree. And even if they did, the way they took care of business against the steelers (not to mention the way they game planned and grinder out the win late in the season at Denver, convinced me that they're for real.
What am I missing?

 

[Ronoh]

Yes they are betting the Pats but 85% of the money that will be bet on the game won't get in to town until Friday and it's sitting on a key number.

Hammer the under.

 

[Lars]

The site where I check odds started at a pick and moved quickly to -3. The underdog in the Super Bowl has been money a significant percentage in the last 15 years and I think Atlanta can pull it off. I'm holding out for Atlanta +4(or +3.5). If I were backing NE I would take the -3. I'm not betting this heavy as it is not as enticing as last year's team with the superior defense getting points. The last time I bet the favorite was when the Rams were giving 14 points to NE and that was very costly. Billecheck will do anything to win and win he does. I am a life long Browns fan and have disliked Bill since he took over there but if I owned a team he would be my first choice because he gets it done.

I had NE in the SB against Seattle and cashed after Seattle decided to pass from the 1 with 30 seconds left. That is Super Bowl winning experience but Lynch should have made me loose that under dog bet.

 

[manamongkids]

i heard that they are keeping the line where it is because the Falcons were 150/1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and Vegas saw a lot of action on that bet, so Vegas's attempt to offset that would be to keep the line where it is, but what do i know, Im a fish when it comes to sports betting

 

[Michbrog]

Hope this helps

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/1833872

 

[upNdown]

i heard that they are keeping the line where it is because the Falcons were 150/1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and Vegas saw a lot of action on that bet, so Vegas's attempt to offset that would be to keep the line where it is, but what do i know, Im a fish when it comes to sports betting

I heard they jacked that number up to 150 because they weren't getting any action on Atlanta, so that's an explanation that actually makes sense to me.

 

[detroitdad]

Looks like I'm rooting for NE -3. My buddy is down 20 bucks to me in the playoffs. Rule is, he gets to pick. He went ATL +3. I've got 20 more I'll put on NE if anyone wants it. @pokerplayingpisces gets first dibs.

 

[Lars]

Looks like I'm rooting for NE -3. My buddy is down 20 bucks to me in the playoffs. Rule is, he gets to pick. He went ATL +3. I've got 20 more I'll put on NE if anyone wants it. @pokerplayingpisces gets first dibs.

I'm your huckleberry if pokerplayingpisces doesn't take it.

 

[GrumpyCatMalaka]

The line I'm getting is Pats -5. But the guy is local and everyone tends to bet the Pats

 

[guinness]

The line I'm getting is Pats -5. But the guy is local and everyone tends to bet the Pats

This is why hammering the ATL +11 / Over 52 Tease is your....

 

[GrumpyCatMalaka]

This is why hammering the ATL +11 / Over 52 Tease is your....

That pic gets me every time.

I usually follow it with

 

[legend672]

Anyone interested in a 10 man @ $100 a man final score combined square pool. $1000 winner take all. 0 thru 9 . so if the final is 48 -28 then 6 would be the winner. 28-24. It would be 2 , 24-21 it would be 5 etc.... high scoring game assures plenty of action. No numbers are that bad . No rake, true odds

 

[guinness]

Anyone interested in a 10 man @ $100 a man final score combined square pool. $1000 winner take all. 0 thru 9 . so if the final is 48 -28 then 6 would be the winner. 28-24. It would be 2 , 24-21 it would be 5 etc.... high scoring game assures plenty of action. No numbers are that bad . No rake, true odds

Thats a great pool but all my gambo is locked up. Starting to sweat losses already let alone hit more.


Edit: I'm In.

 

[ssanel54]

Anyone interested in a 10 man @ $100 a man final score combined square pool. $1000 winner take all. 0 thru 9 . so if the final is 48 -28 then 6 would be the winner. 28-24. It would be 2 , 24-21 it would be 5 etc.... high scoring game assures plenty of action. No numbers are that bad . No rake, true odds

Im in for 1

 

[Ronoh]

Anyone interested in a 10 man @ $100 a man final score combined square pool. $1000 winner take all. 0 thru 9 . so if the final is 48 -28 then 6 would be the winner. 28-24. It would be 2 , 24-21 it would be 5 etc.... high scoring game assures plenty of action. No numbers are that bad . No rake, true odds

I'd probably participate

 

[upNdown]

Not for me, but good luck with it, fellas. I say the patriots win, 31-19.

 

[legend672]

That's 3, certainly there are 7 more players looking for interesting action on the big game

 

[PAZ]

That's 3, certainly there are 7 more players looking for interesting action on the big game

In, always in.

 

[legend672]

That's 4

Brady and coach belichick looked a lot more worried before Pittsburgh. They look like the have the nuts for sure. Bet accordingly.

 

[72o]

Anyone interested in a 10 man @ $100 a man final score combined square pool. $1000 winner take all. 0 thru 9 . so if the final is 48 -28 then 6 would be the winner. 28-24. It would be 2 , 24-21 it would be 5 etc.... high scoring game assures plenty of action. No numbers are that bad . No rake, true odds

In!

 

[legend672]

Were halfway there. This Ten man combined total is way more exciting than regular squares, which are also very cool

 

[72o]

Were halfway there. This Ten man combined total is way more exciting than regular squares, which are also very cool

If needed, a co-worker of mine is in if you don't mind expanding outside PCF.

Maybe this needs to be its own thread to garner more interest? Or are we trying to hide this activity?

 

[legend672]

Looking to fill it, not sure about a new thread. Winning the pool would buy a nice set of chips

 

[ssanel54]

@bergs , @manamongkids , @Chicken Rob, @JoseRijo, @iBetOnEverything, @Jimulacrum

Cmon NE, lets get this done.

@GrumpyCatMalaka

 

[guinness]

If you need one to fill, I'll hit it.

 

[ssanel54]

If you need one to fill, I'll hit it.

how did I miss King degen

 

[GrumpyCatMalaka]

@bergs , @manamongkids , @Chicken Rob, @JoseRijo, @iBetOnEverything, @Jimulacrum

Cmon NE, lets get this done.

@GrumpyCatMalaka

Man, I've already got money and squares on the game...I'm a maybe.

 

[Jimulacrum]

@bergs , @manamongkids , @Chicken Rob, @JoseRijo, @iBetOnEverything, @Jimulacrum

Cmon NE, lets get this done.

@GrumpyCatMalaka

I know I run the risk of getting myself ostracized over this, but I don't watch or gamble on sports.

 

[ssanel54]

I know I run the risk of getting myself ostracized over this, but I don't watch or gamble on sports.

This is hardly sports betting. More analogous to a 10 person flip.

 

[kirchhausen]

im in why not