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Super Bowl point spread - what does Vegas know? (1 Viewer)

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Getting closer......it will be so cool if there are all kinds of twists and turns in the 4th quarter
 
legend672 said:
Anyone interested in a 10 man @ $100 a man final score combined square pool. $1000 winner take all. 0 thru 9 . so if the final is 48 -28 then 6 would be the winner. 28-24. It would be 2 , 24-21 it would be 5 etc.... high scoring game assures plenty of action. No numbers are that bad . No rake, true odds
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manamongkids said:
What's the bet?
Click to expand...

If I'm understanding it correctly, basically put up $100 for a number (0-9) for a 1/10 chance to win $1000.
 
10 guys@ $100 each winner take all $1000
....everyone gets A number...0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9
Final score of the super bowl. Add both scores. Say it's 45-13 pats.....58 points, if you have number 8 you win. No rake/ true odds. Will list the 10 names, then the numbers will be determined by the Saturday night Massachusetts lottery number. Whichever is the lead (first) number will go next to the first name and so forth.
 
So far....
1-Legend 672
2-Guinness
3-Ssanel54
4-Ronoh
5-PAZ
6-72o
7-Kirchausen
8-links-slayer
9-biscohead
10- Keith the butcher
 
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legend672 said:
So far....
1-Legend 672
2-Guinness
3-Ssanel54
4-Ronoh
5-PAZ
6-72o
7-Kirchausen
8-
9-
10-
Click to expand...
And don't forget, I have a buddy of mine who wants in if we need to fill a spot. I don't want to take a spot away from someone here though if you can fill it.
 
Cliff notes: I'm not touching this game unless the line moves to -3.5, in which case, I'd take Atlanta.

OK, I'll bite. I build these types of models for work. I'm a data scientist/statistician and I handicap games for fun and extra (read chipping) money. There's a thread in here somewhere where you can watch me getting my ass handed to me last season where I lost 16 straight baseball bets. So... I'm bigtime basically. Half the people here think I'm a blowhard. So take this with a grain of salt. That said, I'm up significantly from sports betting over the past several years. I went 9-2 this season in the NFL, but I don't bet very many games (that's less than one game per week obviously). I probably won't be touching the Super Bowl though. But, here are my thoughts...

The line opened at -2.5, not -3. It got hit pretty hard early on and made the biggest line move a game can make when it went from -2.5 to -3. A 2.5 line is actually closer to a pick'em than it is to 3 points because of the non-linearity of scoring in football. This move is similar to odds going from 50/50 to 43/57. That's a big difference. On paper, Atlanta is WAY underrated. They're 12-6 against the spread this season, and they went 15-2-1 OVER the point total. That's worth keeping in mind. Their offense isn't just a little bit better than New England's. It's definitely better. However, the Pats do have a very strong offense, and their defense is top notch (probably top 5). It's not as good as the Seahawks defense though, which Atlanta had no problems with a couple weeks ago (albeit without their best player, and the best safety in the league - Earl Thomas). However, as a handicapper, it's extremely difficult to quantify experience, if not impossible (I can calculate it, but the standard errors are so wide, it's pretty much useless). Although one thing is certain - it's over rated. Experience matters, but not as much as you might think. Defense usually trumps offense, but this game could be a shootout. Just look at the over/under line.

I'd be pretty surprised if this line moves to -3.5. If it does, I will be betting Atlanta pretty hard. If it doesn't, I almost certainly won't touch the game. Again, I haven't handicapped the game, and don't think it'd be worth my time to do it. But I'm pretty sure my line would come in at under 3 points if I did. Probably closer to that initial 2.5 mark. Super Bowls are rarely worth betting money on. The efficient market hypothesis is always in play on Super Bowl Sundays.

Here's a silly little graphic I made that helps you visualize the jumps in point spreads in the NFL. The y-axis shows linear values from 0 to 11, and the footballs are spaced according to their non-linear scoring distributions. As you can see, the jump from -2.5 to -3 is huge. For it to jump to 3.5 would be remarkable. I don't see it happening. If it did, I'd consider that to be a big mistake, and I don't think Vegas is that foolish. But if too much money floods in on NE, they'll do it, albeit regrettably. They definitely don't want to give Atlanta +3.5. I can promise you that much. They would only do it to hedge their bet if they have to. That's when I swoop in :)

There's also a ton of luck involved in football games. A turnover is worth about 4 points against the line, and is almost entirely a factor of luck - good or bad. So any game within 4 points could be completely swayed by one lucky pass deflecting off someone's helmet and into the hands of the eventual winner.



Screen Shot 2015-09-30 at 5.25.00 PM.png
 
RainmanTrail said:
Cliff notes: I'm not touching this game unless the line moves to -3.5, in which case, I'd take Atlanta.

OK, I'll bite. I build these types of models for work. I'm a data scientist/statistician and I handicap games for fun and extra (read chipping) money. There's a thread in here somewhere where you can watch me getting my ass handed to me last season where I lost 16 straight baseball bets. So... I'm bigtime basically. Half the people here think I'm a blowhard. So take this with a grain of salt. That said, I'm up significantly from sports betting over the past several years. I went 9-2 this season in the NFL, but I don't bet very many games (that's less than one game per week obviously). I probably won't be touching the Super Bowl though. But, here are my thoughts...

The line opened at -2.5, not -3. It got hit pretty hard early on and made the biggest line move a game can make when it went from -2.5 to -3. A 2.5 line is actually closer to a pick'em than it is to 3 points because of the non-linearity of scoring in football. This move is similar to odds going from 50/50 to 43/57. That's a big difference. On paper, Atlanta is WAY underrated. They're 12-6 against the spread this season, and they went 15-2-1 OVER the point total. That's worth keeping in mind. Their offense isn't just a little bit better than New England's. It's definitely better. However, the Pats do have a very strong offense, and their defense is top notch (probably top 5). It's not as good as the Seahawks defense though, which Atlanta had no problems with a couple weeks ago (albeit without their best player, and the best safety in the league - Earl Thomas). However, as a handicapper, it's extremely difficult to quantify experience, if not impossible (I can calculate it, but the standard errors are so wide, it's pretty much useless). Although one thing is certain - it's over rated. Experience matters, but not as much as you might think. Defense usually trumps offense, but this game could be a shootout. Just look at the over/under line.

I'd be pretty surprised if this line moves to -3.5. If it does, I will be betting Atlanta pretty hard. If it doesn't, I almost certainly won't touch the game. Again, I haven't handicapped the game, and don't think it'd be worth my time to do it. But I'm pretty sure my line would come in at under 3 points if I did. Probably closer to that initial 2.5 mark. Super Bowls are rarely worth betting money on. The efficient market hypothesis is always in play on Super Bowl Sundays.

Here's a silly little graphic I made that helps you visualize the jumps in point spreads in the NFL. The y-axis shows linear values from 0 to 11, and the footballs are spaced according to their non-linear scoring distributions. As you can see, the jump from -2.5 to -3 is huge. For it to jump to 3.5 would be remarkable. I don't see it happening. If it did, I'd consider that to be a big mistake, and I don't think Vegas is that foolish. But if too much money floods in on NE, they'll do it, albeit regrettably. They definitely don't want to give Atlanta +3.5. I can promise you that much. They would only do it to hedge their bet if they have to. That's when I swoop in :)

There's also a ton of luck involved in football games. A turnover is worth about 4 points against the line, and is almost entirely a factor of luck - good or bad. So any game within 4 points could be completely swayed by one lucky pass deflecting off someone's helmet and into the hands of the eventual winner.



View attachment 79858
Click to expand...
I appreciate the input, and I'll just add this. When you say the Pats had maybe a top 5 defense, I laugh. I know total points allowed doesn't tell the whole story, for a variety of reasons. But the patriots gave up the fewest points by far this season, and the defense improved significantly as the season wore on.
I think you're looking at the best offense against the best defense.
 
RainmanTrail said:
On paper, Atlanta is WAY underrated. They're 12-6 against the spread this season, and they went 15-2-1 OVER the point total. That's worth keeping in mind. Their offense isn't just a little bit better than New England's. It's definitely better. However, the Pats do have a very strong offense, and their defense is top notch (probably top 5). It's not as good as the Seahawks defense though, which Atlanta had no problems with a couple weeks ago (albeit without their best player, and the best safety in the league - Earl Thomas). However, as a handicapper, it's extremely difficult to quantify experience, if not impossible (I can calculate it, but the standard errors are so wide, it's pretty much useless). Although one thing is certain - it's over rated. Experience matters, but not as much as you might think. Defense usually trumps offense, but this game could be a shootout. Just look at the over/under line.
Click to expand...

Not looking to troll, as I found most of what you wrote pretty interesting, but when it comes to some of the statements above Im curious as to how you make those deductions. I question if you are making them as a true handicapper, or as a Seahawks fan? For example - to say that Atlanta's offense is definitely better than NE, what stats are you using, and are you considering the fact that Brady missed 4 games? Also, when you talk about Seattle Defense being the best in the league, what is that based on, other than reputation? Atlanta had no problem with them because 1. No Earl Thomas, 2. possibly an injured Richard Sherman (depending if you want to believe they were cheating again, but there's a different thread for that) and 3. a bunch of terribly timed blitzes that left Julio Jones virtually uncovered. But thats all besides the point, because the Patriots and Sehawks defenses are apples and oranges. They are both effective, but the personnel and schemes are totally different. The Pats "on paper" match up much better than the Seahawks. You should also factor that Atlanta is playing without arguably their best pass rusher Claiborn.

Again, I don't want you to get defensive, but I would love to understand how some of the decisions are actually made from the POV of a handicapper.
 
Just watched pats beat Seattle in super bowl . Down 10 in the fourth, against a tremendous team with outstanding defense, came back and won. This tells me no Atlanta lead would be safe. It probably won't matter as I think pats win wire to wire easily. Great offense and great defense.... vs great offense and avg. defense provides similiar outcomes . We stop them some of the time, they stop us none of the time. TB12 & coach Belichick looked a lot more worried about a Pittsburgh than they do about these guys. History shows that the Pays don't lose to this type of team. There is way too much on the line here. History is at stake. The pats are not on the verge of number 5 , by losing to the likes of Matt Ryan . Think about it. No way Pats and Brady lose
 
I'm with OP. I think 3 is at least a point low. I don't think it takes into account the experience of Brady, Belicheck and the Pats in general

Bob Scucci is the bookmaker for the Orleans and all Boyd properties. He discusses the Super Bowl line here in the 1-25-17 podcast

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/5395837

Also, I’m a Packers fan. Anyone giving credit to Atlanta for a quality win against the Pack is kidding themselves. The Packer D was decimated and horrible. They were total smoke and mirrors at the end.
 
legend672 said:
Biscohead called to say he's in
Also KTB


That's 10......


Stay tuned for further instructions......yay
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OK so should I tell my buddy to go screw? :LOL: :laugh:
 
legend672 said:
10 guys@ $100 each winner take all $1000
....everyone gets A number...0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9
Final score of the super bowl. Add both scores. Say it's 45-13 pats.....58 points, if you have number 8 you win. No rake/ true odds. Will list the 10 names, then the numbers will be determined by the Saturday night Massachusetts lottery number. Whichever is the lead (first) number will go next to the first name and so forth.
Click to expand...
legend672 said:
So far....
1-Legend 672
2-Guinness
3-Ssanel54
4-Ronoh
5-PAZ
6-72o
7-Kirchausen
8-
9-
10-
Click to expand...
@legend672 assuming 23-28 = 11, whoever has 1 wins?
 
upNdown said:
I appreciate the input, and I'll just add this. When you say the Pats had maybe a top 5 defense, I laugh. I know total points allowed doesn't tell the whole story, for a variety of reasons. But the patriots gave up the fewest points by far this season, and the defense improved significantly as the season wore on.
I think you're looking at the best offense against the best defense.
Click to expand...

Ya, my buddy reprimanded me for that comment too. I'm almost certainly underestimating them. When I last looked, the Seahawks had the lowest points allowed, but that was lyrically around the time they lost Thomas.

I'm going to do some math and revisit this one to adjust for strength of schedule and a few other variables. But ya, previous points allowed is not nearly as predictive of future points allowed as is opponent adjusted net yards per attempt. It's just a lot of work to calculate. And almost none of the main stream sites know what they're doing with stats, so I have to calculate it myself...

But looking back at it, I'm almost certain that they are top 3, and possibly #1. My bias might be showing here lol. But I can remove that bias after doing the math...
 
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RainmanTrail said:
Ya, my buddy reprimanded me for that comment too. I'm almost certainly underestimating them. When I last looked, the Seahawks had the lowest points allowed, but that was lyrically around the time they lost Thomas.

I'm going to do some math and revisit this one to adjust for strength of schedule and a few other variables. But ya, previous points allowed is not nearly as predictive of future points allowed as is opponent adjusted net yards per attempt. It's just a lot of work to calculate. And almost none of the main stream sites no what they're doing with stats, so I have to calculate it myself...

But looking back at it, I'm almost certain that they are top 3, and possibly #1. My bias might be showing here lol. But I can remove that bias after doing the math...
Click to expand...
Big fan of the Cheatlle Cheathawks coached by Cheat Carrol, eh?
 
mkiefer009 said:
I would take -3 all day. But I wouldn't recommend sports betting. No one wins in the long haul. No one.
Click to expand...

Lol

This is almost as ignorant as saying that no one wins in poker in the long haul.
 
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RainmanTrail said:
Ya, my buddy reprimanded me for that comment too. I'm almost certainly underestimating them. When I last looked, the Seahawks had the lowest points allowed, but that was lyrically around the time they lost Thomas.

I'm going to do some math and revisit this one to adjust for strength of schedule and a few other variables. But ya, previous points allowed is not nearly as predictive of future points allowed as is opponent adjusted net yards per attempt. It's just a lot of work to calculate. And almost none of the main stream sites know what they're doing with stats, so I have to calculate it myself...

But looking back at it, I'm almost certain that they are top 3, and possibly #1. My bias might be showing here lol. But I can remove that bias after doing the math...
Click to expand...
The other thing is that Bill Belichick has had a lot of success with "bend don't break" defenses, so I'm not sure yards per attempt does much for you there, either.
But I'd like to hear the stats anyway.
 
upNdown said:
The other thing is that Bill Belichick has had a lot of success with "bend don't break" defenses, so I'm not sure yards per attempt does much for you there, either.
But I'd like to hear the stats anyway.
Click to expand...

Once I'm done inverting the strength of opponent matrix, I can apply any stat to it. On the whole, net yards allowed is far more correlated with future points allowed than is previous points allowed. Net yards per attempt is even a little bit better on the aggregate across the league, but could miss slightly on specific teams based on strategies. I'll show both results if I can get around to finishing it. Not sure if I'll have time though. I don't have my real laptop with me, and I have to remote in to my server from a Chromebook to do the math. Might be tricky.
 
Chippy McChiperson said:
.
I wouldn't hate Pete Carroll nearly so much if he wasn't smacking chewing gum every time they pan to a shot of him on the sidelines. It's a pet peeve of mine but man is that annoying.
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Carrol blew it by trying to put the focus on his own big ego, instead of letting Lynch score and win the game and getting all the glory. Belichick was in his head. Carrol is such a gum chomping douche.
 
legend672 said:
Carrol blew it by trying to put the focus on his own big ego, instead of letting Lynch score and win the game and getting all the glory. Belichick was in his head. Carrol is such a gum chomping douche.
Click to expand...
I think Carroll passed the ball to stop the clock, in case they didn't score. Not that he needed to stop the clock. But he figured Belichick would stop the clock. And when BB didn't, Carroll thought, well if he wants the clock to run, then I DONT want it to run. So he called a passing play.
That's what I think. And I think that's why BB didn't call a timeout.
 

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