YOU are the villain with 98s (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

We are playing $0.25/$0.50 ($20 max buy-in) eight handed. This time DrStrange is the villain and is playing a lot of hands out of the blinds or UTG. He has been really lucky getting nice hands or is stealing us blind. This really isn't in character for him. The stacks are mostly short, leading to "easy" decisions without much implied odds / reverse implied odds. This is the next of several hands, which are not being posted in order of occurrence.

Cast of Characters:

Hero this hand is better known as Cougar. Tricky, trappy, loose, passive, likes to bet draws and slow plays big hands. He has $45.

Villain (AKA DrStrange) is UTG with $25. He has been a man on a mission to steal blind and pots with a tsunami of preflop aggression. Normally tight and aggressive, willing to gambol. Not tight tonight.

The rest of the table might or might not matter - we'll see.

The hand.

DrStrange raises to $2.50 Two folds bring us to Hero holding . Should Hero fold, call or raise? If raising, how much? (keep in mind the stack sizes.)

 

[detroitdad]

I believe Hero is middle position? I'm raising to 6.5 to 7 bucks.

 

[MegaTon44]

A 5X raise from UTG player who is normally tight (even if looser tonight) while we hold medium suited connectors in middle position? I know I'm a nit, but this is a snap fold for me.

 

[DrStrange]

$2.50 is villain's standard raise when first to enter the pot, or even after a limper or two. Expect one to four callers.

 

[kirchhausen]

Deeper stacks I'm calling or even raising. This shallow I'm folding.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Usually when nits raise under the gun for 10% of their starting stack, they have the goods. Normally this is a fold, but since I'm confidant I can outplay the opener, I flat and see what happens on the flop.

 

[DrStrange]

We all love suited connectors. Such pretty cards with potential!

 

[MegaTon44]

We all love suited connectors. Such pretty cards with potential!

I completely understand this logic and I typically play suited connectors in late position, even occasionally earlier to vary my play. However, I was losing a decent bit playing these hands (and I do know how to make hard folds) so I began to focus more on the odds.

I'm not speaking to Doc because he knows the odds, but we have to think about the flops that would help us win the hand

• Odds of flopping a straight: 75-1 (strong, but could be the dummy end though)
• Odds of flopping a flush: 118-1 (strong for now, but only a 9 high flush and you could get drawn out on)
• Odds of flopping trips: 75-1 (strong, but could be outkicked)
• Odds of flopping a boat: 1087-1 (very strong, but look how rare)

Anything else (pairs, draws, etc) and you are having to pay a decent bit to hit a draw/re-draw against quite possibly a made hand. IO could be there, but so is RIO. Just doesn't seem worth it to me.

 

[AlPresidente]

I think this is a fold but sooted connectors. We're too short stacked to sensibly call I think. Raise to $6.

 

[Don Clay]

I don't like the thread when Doc is the Villain !
Ok ok I leave.

 

[Forty4]

Flat, judging by past threads it's best to have a few others come along (and they should if history has taught us anything). I don't think it's worth trying to iso villian with a raise, plus it opens the action back to him so he can jam. Plus it fits into Hero's MO of being passive/tricky.

 

[JoseRijo]

I'm not sure why people are raising.

 

[DrStrange]

In truth, DrStrange treats any 3-bet from hero as a serious matter. It would much worse if Hero limped/3-bets.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Fold. As others have noted, the implied odds just aren't there when playing this short. I'd be happy to come in for a raise with if it had been folded around, or join a group of limpers, but $2.50 means we're only getting 9:1 from DrStrange's stack. That's not even good enough to set-mine. We may get more callers behind, but even one or two other calls wouldn't really tip the scales, and that's not mentioning the possibility of a reraise.

There's not a lot of room to speculate in short-stack poker. Unless DrStrange routinely raises preflop and then check/folds the flop or has some other huge, obvious leak, this is probably not a profitable spot.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Deep stacked I don't mind a call.

Deep stacked and in later position I like the occasional 3! here.

This shallow it's an easy fold.

That being said, if my read is that while you're widening your opening range tonight, but still respecting 3! OOP, it's not a terrible spot for a light 3! if CO and BTN are tight. (I believe we are HJ?)

 

[DrStrange]

Hero holds third best position. Aside from the doctor, no one at this table could be considered tight.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Oh, what a flop! ***

Hero calls. Folds to the big blind who calls. Three way action, $7.75 in the pot. Hero holds

Playing $20, the Big Blind is a hyper loose calling station with a healthy dose of misguided aggression. He has betting tells and bet sizing tells. Bluffs too often, without regard for stitching together a plausible multi-street story. This can be effective because his play with real hands often looks the same.

Flop is:

BB checks, DrStrange bets $6, leaving him with $16 in his stack. Action on Hero - call or raise? Not folding the open ended straight flush draw.

 

[detroitdad]

Easy shove

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Ship the sherbet to Herbert. Villain is a favorite against aces or a king, and is flipping against a better flush draw. Slight dog against a set, but that's a cooler.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Ship

 

[Jimulacrum]

Insta-shove.

 

[Chicken Rob]

If playing solid poker, fold pre, ship flop as played.

If you're gonna play the hand with improper odds, raise pre and shove any flop.

Only take line 2 if you find -EV gambling fun at these stakes.

 

[DrStrange]

*** OK, so it wasn't much of a choice, but Hero spurns us all and calls ***

Hero calls, BB folds. It is heads up, $19.75 in the pot. Hero holds

Turn is: < >

DrStrange bets all-in for $16.50 into the $19.75 pot. Action on Hero - call or fold?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Still getting the right odds to call, but I think hero played this hand as poorly as possible on every single street.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Results ***

Hero calls holding . DrStrange tables

River is: < >

Hero scoops the pot.

Two closing thoughts:

I was surprised how passively Hero played post flop. That is a "go to war" flop if there ever was one. The stacks are too short to fold out a top pair kind of hand, but Hero could likely fold out a hand like QQ or JJ or AQ with an all-in flop raise rather than wait for Villain to put his whole stack in and force hero to river a winning hand.

Stack sizes matter. The pre-flop raise renders 98s a long term money loser, even if played well post flop in position. The pre-flop raise puts villain in a low SPR situation where the rest of the hand often plays itself - a hand where Hero has little to no fold equity either pre-flop or post flop.

 

[Adam Crowley]

This hand is a good hand to 3b bluff with pre flop though. If the good Dr has been getting out of line a lot, and you haven't played a hand for a while this would be a great option to 3b

 

[thorwilliam]

This hand is a good hand to 3b bluff with pre flop though. If the good Dr has been getting out of line a lot, and you haven't played a hand for a while this would be a great option to 3b

I don't think 3-bet bluffing people raising 5x from utg with a short stack is a profitable strategy. If we re-raise to 8 and villain shoves, we would be priced in to call off with 8-9.

 

[Adam Crowley]

it depends on how out of line villain is getting and how tight your image is

its a good hand to do it with because it still has so much equity vs a UTG 4b range.

 

[thorwilliam]

its a good hand to do it with because it still has so much equity vs a UTG 4b range.

This part is nonsense, and there is still several other players behind to act which might wake up with a big hand. Also if utg calls the spr is so low that it will be hard to outplay him post flop.

 

[Adam Crowley]

This part is nonsense, and there is still several other players behind to act which might wake up with a big hand. Also if utg calls the spr is so low that it will be hard to outplay him post flop.

There really isnt any outplaying. There is just the amount of times you win the hand and the amount of times you loose. If you get your opponent to fold a hand when they shouldnt, by leveraging your image vs UTG image, you have done the outplaying. The equity of 89s just makes the hand a little better to do it with than say KJo or something