Was my move slick, standard or fishy? (1 Viewer)

[Taghkanic]

This summer I’ve joined a new weekly private $1/$3 game. It’s pretty well-run: Two rotating dealers who play for tips, 9 players max, good table with a raised rail/lightstrip, decent food and drinks, reasonable rake. There is a high hand bonus (quads minimum), a bad beat jackpot (currently about $3K), and the 72 game is on.

I’ve played four times so far, booking two modest wins (+30, +60BB), one modest loss (-35BB), and one bigger win (+250BB). The cast of regs is pretty steady, so I’m starting to get a decent feel for the player pool, but still have a lot of intel to gather.

In any case, this hand comes from my bigger winning session. The main villain I believe is one of the more thinking players in the game. Weaker regs are constantly marveling at his hand-reading ability, and to be fair I have seen him call out people’s hands accurately a few times, though this may just reflect how long they have all been playing before I discovered the game... He tends to show an appropriate level of aggression, and I haven’t seen him show down garbage. His main weakness seems to be a certain degree of tilt, getting irritated if things go wrong.

HAND:

[ I’ll reserve my explanations for my play in a follow-up comment ]

• Hero covers everyone with ~$1,200. Villain has about $650. Other stacks in the hand are shorter.
• Two $3 limpers in front of me, $10 in the pot.
• Hero has in the hijack and 5x it to $15.
• Cutoff and button call. Pot is $55.
• Villain in the BB bumps it to $65.
• Limpers fold, Hero calls, cutoff and button fold. Pot is $185.
• Flop is
• Villain c-bets $75, Hero calls. Pot $335.
• Turn , rainbow board with a one-liner.
• Villain leads out again for $120. Pot is $455.
• Villain has about $400 and change behind.
• Hero tanks for about 45 seconds, then shoves all in with two pair.
• Villain tanks for a full five minutes, finally folds.

Key note: While tanking, the villain is in real distress, sighing, looking at his hand repeatedly, looking at the ceiling, etc. He says at one point “You work so hard to build a stack, then...” And says, “I’ve been trying to get you all night, it’s starting to piss me off.” He speculates about what I could have, theorizing first a set of 9s, then 88, 89 suited, T8suited.

He runs through the preflop action, recalling how I made it $15 over limpers, then flatted his $65 raise over the two cold callers and two limpers. Finally he folds, somewhat angrily, telling his neighbor he had .

So was my play here slick, just standard, or fishy? Some more comments to come.

 

[Burke]

Lol is this a $1/$3 Phil Helmuth?

 

[Taghkanic]

Thoughts...

I was kind of proud of my play here, because I felt I was managing some meta game stuff well, but it’s possible I just got lucky to make two pair on the turn, and not to run into a better hand when I shoved.

My $15 raise when there was only $10 in the pot was aimed at either just taking it down there, or hopefully isolating one of the blinds or limpers, and buying the button to play in position when called.

The Villain’s $65 reraise from the BB after my $15 was called twice... This might have raised more alarms for me normally, but I have seen him (and other players like him) squeeze light in such situations. None of the action so far was screaming major strength. I felt the Villain thought he could push the table around a bit there.

As it turned out, Villain really did have a value hand, not something so-so like Ax or offsuit broadway combos... My call of his $65 may have been a little loose, but I figured the two $15 flatters would go away, and my could play well on a lot of middling flops, in position, and deep.

More...

 

[upNdown]

Sounds great to me!
Flop call was fine with me - his overbet screams fear and you’ve got top pair, a gutty and a back door flush. I think you got lucky on the turn, and you were probably folding if you didn’t, but what the hell, its a cash game!

 

[TheOffalo]

Pot sizes are a little wonky. If V c-bet $75 on the flop and you called, and the pot is then $215, that'd mean the pot pre-flop would have only been $65.

Looks like the pot pre-flop was after V's raise and your call should be $55 + $62 (V's raise) + $50 (your call), or $167? Which would make the pot at the turn $317, and V's $120 turn-bet would make it $437?

Probably doesn't change things too much, but just trying to get a more accurate picture...

 

[Taghkanic]

... ct'd

[ Corrected some of the pot sizes. I think my math is right now. I didn't include rake but it wasn’t significant. ]

The flop seemed pretty good for my specific hand, which had been pretty speculative pre. Top pair, gutshot straight draw, backdoor flush draw. His c-bet of $75 on top of the $195 pot seemed like an easy call (getting 3.6:1 with some room for improvement).

 

[TheOffalo]

The Villain’s $65 reraise from the BB after my $15 was called twice...

Who was the second player who called? Seemed like you and V were heads up into the flop.

First reaction is that you played it well. You just flatting the $65 looks like middle sets pocket pairs or (suited) connectors, so the flop connects with your range more than V's. Flatting the c-bet continues to tell that story. As it was you were ahead anyway, but it was good to put pressure on so that he didn't catch a miracle or any other have a or making him a better two pair (assuming you put him on an overpair).

 

[Taghkanic]

The turn gave me two pair, and eliminated any fear of a flush, while making any gutshot straight either a chop or a loss to Jx.

When he bet $120 in $335, my initial thought was to just call. My hand had good, hidden showdown value, and was ahead of all of his possible AK/JJ+ monsters. I discounted him having 88, and also sets, since I was blocking TT and 77.... in part because of the preceding action, but also because I think he would have taken more time and maybe tried to be deceptive if he had turned the 10-high straight, more likely going for a check-raise.

I also didn’t think there were many river cards that would improve me, and some that Villain could use to bluff me off the best hand. It felt like overpass and AK were most likely. I figured I might get called by overpass, AT, JK and a few other hands that I was ahead of, and that I still had a few outs if I had miscalculated as needed to catch up.

On top of that, I thought the shove for his remaining $400+ had the chance of folding out some hands that were beating me, such as T9s, and maybe even bottom sets. Lastly, I had taken several pots from him earlier in the night, showing down strong hands, so I figured there was a chance of getting some of those folds.

Overall I thought this was the right sequence of plays, except possibly for the loose $65 call of his seeming squeeze.

 

[Taghkanic]

Who was the second player who called? Seemed like you and V were heads up into the flop.

I didn’t express myself very clearly. I meant that my $15 raise over the limpers got called twice, so the pot when he made it $65 was the blinds (1+3) + 3 +3 +15 +15 +15.

Then he made it $65, the limpers folded, I called, the SB was already gone, the two $15 flats folded.

 

[Taghkanic]

First reaction is that you played it well. You just flatting the $65 looks like middle sets or (suited) connectors, so the flop connects with your range more than V's. Flatting the c-bet continues to tell that story.

Yes, that was part of my thinking. When I flatted his 3bet preflop, he probably assumed he was ahead, but had to be on the lookout for smaller pairs making sets, and then the board became scarily full of straight possibilities.

Flatting again his c-bet on the flop just reinforced that, I felt, and set up the pot-sized shove on the turn when I improved.

As it was you were ahead anyway, but it was good to put pressure on so that he didn't catch a miracle or any other have a or making him a better two pair (assuming you put him on an overpair).

Going to the turn I was concerned about a lot of overcards making my tens a loser, by bringing in either better one-pairs, or even straights. The 7 was not my gin card, but it was close; only a T or 8 would have been better, plus any other spade would have brought in a flush draw I probably couldn’t have gotten away from, either.

 

[mipevi]

I'm not thrilled about calling the 3bet since you didn't get rid of CO and BTN with your initial raise. If it was HU at that point or you had a better hand, would be an easier call.

The turn is tricky, your shoving range looks very strong. I don't hate shoving, as you said you were looking to get some better hands to fold and the stack sizes are awkward for a smaller raise, but I could see clicking it back here sometimes.

 

[ninedeuce]

This summer I’ve joined a new weekly private $1/$3 game. It’s pretty well-run: Two rotating dealers who play for tips, 9 players max, good table with a raised rail/lightstrip, decent food and drinks, reasonable rake. There is a high hand bonus (quads minimum), a bad beat jackpot (currently about $3K), and the 72 game is on.

I’ve played four times so far, booking two modest wins (+30, +60BB), one modest loss (-35BB), and one bigger win (+250BB). The cast of regs is pretty steady, so I’m starting to get a decent feel for the player pool, but still have a lot of intel to gather.

In any case, this hand comes from my bigger winning session. The main villain I believe is one of the more thinking players in the game. Weaker regs are constantly marveling at his hand-reading ability, and to be fair I have seen him call out people’s hands accurately a few times, though this may just reflect how long they have all been playing before I discovered the game... He tends to show an appropriate level of aggression, and I haven’t seen him show down garbage. His main weakness seems to be a certain degree of tilt, getting irritated if things go wrong.

HAND:

[ I’ll reserve my explanations for my play in a follow-up comment ]

• Hero covers everyone with ~$1,200. Villain has about $650. Other stacks in the hand are shorter.
• Two $3 limpers in front of me, $10 in the pot.
• Hero has in the hijack and 5x it to $15.
• Cutoff and button call. Pot is $55.
• Villain in the BB bumps it to $65.
• Limpers fold, Hero calls, cutoff and button fold. Pot is $185.
• Flop is
• Villain c-bets $75, Hero calls. Pot $335.
• Turn , rainbow board with a one-liner.
• Villain leads out again for $120. Pot is $455.
• Villain has about $400 and change behind.
• Hero tanks for about 45 seconds, then shoves all in with two pair.
• Villain tanks for a full five minutes, finally folds.

Key note: While tanking, the villain is in real distress, sighing, looking at his hand repeatedly, looking at the ceiling, etc. He says at one point “You work so hard to build a stack, then...” And says, “I’ve been trying to get you all night, it’s starting to piss me off.” He speculates about what I could have, theorizing first a set of 9s, then 88, 89 suited, T8suited.

He runs through the preflop action, recalling how I made it $15 over limpers, then flatted his $65 raise over the two cold callers and two limpers. Finally he folds, somewhat angrily, telling his neighbor he had .

So was my play here slick, just standard, or fishy? Some more comments to come.

Raising with two callers in front is pretty, um, optimistic. Understand that you were doing well this session, but this is the poker equivalent of a heat check lol.

Not saying I'd never do this, but would only happen if I felt I had a major, major skill advantage over my opponents. And specifically that I read my opponents as:
* Passive/trappy
* Overvaluing top pair or overpairs, esp by the river
* Feeling like they were tired of being pushed around

Otherwise, is a fold for me from the HJ with two callers in front. It's actually a fold for me pre unopened unless I'm on the button or in the blinds (or maybe the CO if I know that the button overfolds pre).

As played, I'm also folding to villain's 4b. When action gets to you, you're getting meh direct odds. Your implied odds are better (villain has 195bb eff stack), but you've described villain as a competent player, and you've got callers behind you, and your call is going to incentivize them to call behind, too. And now your range is really getting crushed, and you've got some serious reverse implied odds (RIO) happening. E.g., you're going to be up against better flush draws, and if you hit trips, you'll have kicker problems.

As played, flop and turn are fine.

 

[Legend5555]

I'd fold pre to the 3 bet.

As played, it's fine. You can make a pretty solid argument for just calling though because Villain probably has no 8s, while you can have them. Plus you have position, so you can guarantee a bet goes in on river. Obviously, you can get some bad rivers though.

 

[Crninho]

Preflop if I wanted to play T7s I'd just call with 2 limpers, since unlikely a worse hand will call us if we raise, but I'd rather fold it anyways since I don't like limping.

But you're loosey goosey I see so it's okay. Can't blame someone for liking to gamble, been there.

But if I  did raise, I'd definitely fold T7s to a standard 3b. That's just burning money long term, much more happy to call with T8s or T9s. But in your situation, after the 3b you have to call 50 for a pot of 170 which given the odds and position, I'd call even if the villian flipped over his kings and showed them to me. As a villain I'd also raise to atleast 90 oop with a raise and 2 callers, but we're not here to discuss that.

Flop is okay, but the turn is questionable. What 3b hands does villain have that we beat that will call our shove? 76s? Even that is highly unlikely. All other hands sigh call us which have us beat like TT or 99. 88 also calls easily but I think villain will just flat that pre given 3 callers and oop.

Meanwhile all other hands he 3bets can easily fold to a shove on a  rainbow one liner board. If the board had 2 flush draws, you could go frisky with a hand like QJs or KJs and shove hoping for villain to fold exactly the 3b hands he has - JJ+. All in all, this is really underbluffed board by general players so villain gets an easy fold decision.

Tldr; fold pre.

 

[Taghkanic]

But you're loosey goosey I see so it's okay. Can't blame someone for liking to gamble, been there.

LOL, my image is definitely TAG. In another game I fold this all day. But in this particular game there are a lot of weak players who play badly post flop, and only really think about their own hands not what I might have...

When I made it $15 over the two limpers, I was expecting them to fold. But was not expecting the cutoff and button to come along.

There are also players there who know just enough to squeeze, but do so too wide... and still more who will c-bet a couple streets unimproved with AK.

Flop is okay, but the turn is questionable. What 3b hands does villain have that we beat that will call our shove?

AA, KK, QQ, JJ... At minimum. People at these stakes often get stuck on their big pairs. This guy was smart enough to let it go. Which was fine by me, because any river card J or higher would have put me in a tough position. He bets again, I may have to fold.

There are a few others on the turn which I expect might call in that spot. JQ for example. Especially when it’s a guy who’s itching to “get” me.

But per above part of my thinking is not just what would call me, but what hands I might be able to get to fold that were actually ahead of me. There were a lot fewer of those, and there aren't a lot of rivers that would not leave me in a weird and difficult spot. With just a pot size bet left, I figured it was time to make a move.

P.S. The extra $50 pre was a stretch, but I’m easily getting away from it on less favorable flops. This one was almost as good as I could hope. (Near the top of my distribution I think is the term…) The question is how often does it need to pay to make that investment worth it. Here, I was assuming the Villain was squeezing wider than his actual holding.

P.P.S. Different villain, but in an earlier hand, another reg in this game opened from middle position with 88. I reraised with AQs. Flop comes A77. I bet half pot on flop, turn river, got called down by the middle pair. Guy could not release it even though he was so clearly losing to a ton of Ax, 99+ and 7x hands.

That kind of game.

 

[Crninho]

P.P.S. Different villain, but in an earlier hand, another reg in this game opened from middle position with 88. I reraised with AQs. Flop comes A77. I bet half pot on flop, turn river, got called down by the middle pair. Guy could not release it even though he was so clearly losing to a ton of Ax, 99+ and 7x hands.

If the turn and river were bricks like 2 and 3 I can see them calling you since you aren't betting 99+ for three streets of value, 7x hands also unlikely since you're most likely to 3bet 87 which he double blocks and the other is 76. So it's either a big ace or a pure bluff and I guess he went with a read and "put you on no ace" as live players like to say.

Also I'd bet 1/3 on that flop since I'm going to be betting it almost always and so I'd use a smaller size for it.

 

[Taghkanic]

I agree with all that analysis, 98% of the time. But I assure you, this player was not thinking through any of that. He was just thinking “Wow, I have a pocket pair.”

And yes, protecting my range by betting 1/4-1/3 on most flops is generally a good idea. I just felt that half pot on each street was the best way to maximize the AQ while retaining my customer. Any bigger and he might’ve awoken from his slumber. Plus, I was pretty sure that he would shove a boat or quads as soon as he got it.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I think Hero missed out on value. He chased the exact he could get value from out of the hand with the big over bet. The only hands calling that bet have him beat.

 

[Taghkanic]

Fair, though the Villain had about $50 less behind than was in the turn pot, after he lead out for $120 on the turn, so technically not quite an overbet…

Also I had to play against his whole range, not just what I learned he had after.

Most of the players on that table I’d have expected to call roughly 50% of the time with overpairs to that board, more often with AA. JQ maybe 1/4 of the time. This guy is sharper than the field, but still came very very close to calling.

I felt in that spot I needed to balance the value of my two pair with the risk of another card to come. (I’ve probably lost more big pots with two pair than any other made hand, because it is so hard to get away from.)

If a 9 or 6 hits on the river (~12% of the time), an overpair counterfeits me. If an 8 (~4%), it’s a chop or I lose to all Jx. If the river is a J+ (maybe 20% of the time) I’m completely at sea because lots of better two pair, sets and straights become possible. I’m only safe with the remaining Ts and 7s (4 outs to improve). 4s, 3s and 2s would have been a relief but if he calls the turns I’m seeing 88 / 89 monsters.

So maybe 36% of rivers make a really tough decision for me if Villain leads out. If I take the $455 down roughly half the time on the turn, then I’ve halved that risk…

If I flat his smallish turn lead then the pot becomes $675 going to the river, with the V having ~$405 left. If I click back his turn bet to like $240 it almost looks stronger…

I tend to think that getting to see the river card would allow him to play more perfectly than he could on the turn, if that makes sense. If he leads out the river for $200 I’m making a crying call every time. For $405 I’m in agony and possibly folding the winner.

Can’t honestly say that I truly worked all that out at the table, or that my post facto guesstimates aren’t still speculative. But my strong intuition at the time was that my best move was to shove the turn.

Anyway, after he folded I showed just the T♠︎ which was kind of a dick move in retrospect, but I was hoping it might get him to disclose his hand.

I’ll add just one more totally self-serving justification… I hope this hand (which was discussed by the table for a good 5 minutes after) may result in me getting a little more respect in the game as a newbie among regs. Or at least contribute to them being more unsure how to play back vs Hero.

I totally may be deluding myself though.

 

[KarateMaster72]

I don't think I'm fit to judge anybody's motives or moves. I just went to a tournament at my local casino. Haven't played a tournament for about 10 years or so. I'm strictly cash.

Buy in was $80 for 15,000 chips and you could do a $5 add-on for another 10,000. Blinds increase every 15 minutes and there's an ante from the start. So already I'm not fond of this. I should have just played cash.

As I mentioned, I am a cash game guy. And I have a hard time deviating from that type of play. Folded for the first 15 to 20 minutes. Made an ace high flush with A J of Spades pushed and doubled up.

Made a few more decent hands then went back to folding. Made another decent play. Got sucked out on and gave back about 9,000 in chips.

Blinds weren't really too bad at the moment. So I was still folding and only playing if I had a premium or felt I could get somebody off their hand especially if I was in position. At one point I folded 5 7 offsuit and I would have flopped the nut straight.

About an hour or so later I was dealt pocket kings. I was second to act and I raised to 8000. Got re-raised and called.

Not good at remembering all the cards like these pros lol. The flop came down clean. No flush draws. No straight draws and pretty low. I down bet to 5000. He re-raises me again all in.

I don't know why but I actually thought about it for about a minute and then I said" I have pocket kings. So I'm guessing you have pocket aces right? I'm probably going to dump my chips." Wrestled with it for Maybe a few seconds more and I called his all-in.

We were the two biggest stacks. He had me covered by at least 5000.

I call, he flips it over, pocket aces. No help on the run out.

I really could have laid it down and I should have laid it down. I don't know if this matters or not but people were rebuying left and right. One guy was on his 7th or 8th buyin. Because it was unlimited rebuys for the first 2 hours.

I seriously need to learn to listen to myself.

Went against my better judgment. And fired a second bullet. They gave me my exact same seat back instantly. Made a few good moves and was close to doubled. Blinds were getting high so I pushed pre-flop all in with Ace 10 suited. Got called by A6 offsuit. He flops two pair and no help by the river.

So I know my move wasn't good either time lol. I'm going to stick to cash games

 

[Crninho]

I don't think I'm fit to judge anybody's motives or moves. I just went to a tournament at my local casino. Haven't played a tournament for about 10 years or so. I'm strictly cash.

Buy in was $80 for 15,000 chips and you could do a $5 add-on for another 10,000. Blinds increase every 15 minutes and there's an ante from the start. So already I'm not fond of this. I should have just played cash.

As I mentioned, I am a cash game guy. And I have a hard time deviating from that type of play. Folded for the first 15 to 20 minutes. Made an ace high flush with A J of Spades pushed and doubled up.

Made a few more decent hands then went back to folding. Made another decent play. Got sucked out on and gave back about 9,000 in chips.

Blinds weren't really too bad at the moment. So I was still folding and only playing if I had a premium or felt I could get somebody off their hand especially if I was in position. At one point I folded 5 7 offsuit and I would have flopped the nut straight.

About an hour or so later I was dealt pocket kings. I was second to act and I raised to 8000. Got re-raised and called.

Not good at remembering all the cards like these pros lol. The flop came down clean. No flush draws. No straight draws and pretty low. I down bet to 5000. He re-raises me again all in.

I don't know why but I actually thought about it for about a minute and then I said" I have pocket kings. So I'm guessing you have pocket aces right? I'm probably going to dump my chips." Wrestled with it for Maybe a few seconds more and I called his all-in.

We were the two biggest stacks. He had me covered by at least 5000.

I call, he flips it over, pocket aces. No help on the run out.

I really could have laid it down and I should have laid it down. I don't know if this matters or not but people were rebuying left and right. One guy was on his 7th or 8th buyin. Because it was unlimited rebuys for the first 2 hours.

I seriously need to learn to listen to myself.

Went against my better judgment. And fired a second bullet. They gave me my exact same seat back instantly. Made a few good moves and was close to doubled. Blinds were getting high so I pushed pre-flop all in with Ace 10 suited. Got called by A6 offsuit. He flops two pair and no help by the river.

So I know my move wasn't good either time lol. I'm going to stick to cash games

KKvAA hard to get away from with which I assume is around 60bb stack, only if you know that kind of player would'nt dump his whole stack on a dry runout - without aces. So not a bad move.

ATvA6 also not a bad move, you got called by a worse hand and got sucked out on, stop being results oriented and realise it's a winning move in the long run.

 

[KarateMaster72]

KKvAA hard to get away from with which I assume is around 60bb stack, only if you know that kind of player would'nt dump his whole stack on a dry runout - without aces. So not a bad move.

ATvA6 also not a bad move, you got called by a worse hand and got sucked out on, stop being results oriented and realise it's a winning move in the long run.

Definitely not result oriented. If I was I would have lost my mind. The number of times I folded what I consider to be garbage and would have had the winning hand that day. Lol it's just I am not a tournament player obviously. Lol.

 

[KarateMaster72]

KKvAA hard to get away from with which I assume is around 60bb stack, only if you know that kind of player would'nt dump his whole stack on a dry runout - without aces. So not a bad move.

ATvA6 also not a bad move, you got called by a worse hand and got sucked out on, stop being results oriented and realise it's a winning move in the long run.

What really sucks is my second bust out was the same guy. I mean some of the hands he was playing were pretty atrocious to me and he got there. That being said, he didn't play a ton of hands. So it was kind of hard to put him on anything a lot of the time.

 

[JustinInMN]

As it turned out, Villain really did have a value hand, not something so-so like Ax or offsuit broadway combos... My call of his $65 may have been a little loose, but I figured the two $15 flatters would go away, and my could play well on a lot of middling flops, in position, and deep.

The turn gave me two pair, and eliminated any fear of a flush, while making any gutshot straight either a chop or a loss to Jx.

When he bet $120 in $335, my initial thought was to just call. My hand had good, hidden showdown value, and was ahead of all of his possible AK/JJ+ monsters. I discounted him having 88, and also sets, since I was blocking TT and 77.... in part because of the preceding action, but also because I think he would have taken more time and maybe tried to be deceptive if he had turned the 10-high straight, more likely going for a check-raise.

I also didn’t think there were many river cards that would improve me, and some that Villain could use to bluff me off the best hand. It felt like overpass and AK were most likely. I figured I might get called by overpass, AT, JK and a few other hands that I was ahead of, and that I still had a few outs if I had miscalculated as needed to catch up.

Honestly I think hero played this pretty straight forward. I certainly don't mind the open from the hijack with this hand. The BB 3-betting is usually going to be a hand, but I think flatting again is right. If you are going to play T7s suited, you are trying to flop huge and want more players in to increase the odds of someone making expensive second best. But they didn't cooperate.

I like the flop call, mainly to realize your hand's equity given you are probably putting villain mostly on overpairs with some misses in there (AK and AQ perhaps). A raise here risks facing a 3 bet shove and means we do not get to draw to this hand that has good odds to beat an overpair. Top pair and a gutshot has a lot of ways to improve, so surely worth a call, not to mention this board is way better for hero's range than villain's range. The alternative might be to test villain with a flop raise and figure on just winning whenever he has dry overs, but the risk of facing a 3-bet and folding hand doesn't seem worth it..

On the turn, I like the raise since we improved to two pair and not a straight. Yes from a value standpoint, it sucks to not get value from what figures to be a hand fairly high in Villain's range, but at the same time two pair requires a lot more protection than a straight, especially if you are putting villain on an overpair, he has as many as 8 outs to a better two pair, not to mention a river 8 is a chop unless villian has a jack somewhere.

Villain played this pretty well too actually. I think in the end, he recognized this board is almost always to hero's advantage and made the right decision to fold the turn. He's dead to a straight, which hero can have and villain cannot. He near dead to a set, again which hero can have and villian probably can't except for TT. He's live against two pair, but will have difficulty getting value if he improves, and frankly hero can have as many two pair combos as straight combos here so it's impossible to determen where he is.

So I say good play for hero, and a good laydown for villain.

 

[power13]

My 2 cents: all this seems fine to me other than the turn shove. Hero says it's for value targeting overpairs, but if you think the villain is calling overpairs+, then QQ+ has about 15% equity, JJ has 25% equity. That's 24 combos. But there are 4 combos of sets where you're dead. I think all the hands which are 2 overcards would not have bet 2 streets. With the info given it's hard to know what villain would be 3-betting, but best case scenario you have 70% equity with a call, and if he would 3B 77+ and some suited/connected, you're dead to 10 more set and straight combos and not picking up really any hands that call which you're beating (maybe 76s), in which case you only have about 50% equity. And even worse, if the turn bet folds out overpairs (as was the case), then you are in really bad shape when called. There's just not much fold equity to be gained given his likely holdings, and the hands that he folds are the ones you're likely to stay ahead of.

As a value bet this feels pretty marginal, and I would prefer a call where on the river those sticky over-pairs might bet again or where an ace or king pair his overcards and he will call a small river bet. The turn feels like a way ahead / way behind situation - it worked out here but I think playing more passively would have been wise in this spot. The amount of the investment to protect against getting counterfeited I think was outweighed by the times you risked being called and drawing dead.

 

[Taghkanic]

On the turn, I like the raise since we improved to two pair and not a straight. Yes from a value standpoint, it sucks to not get value from what figures to be a hand fairly high in Villain's range, but at the same time two pair requires a lot more protection than a straight, especially if you are putting villain on an overpair, he has as many as 8 outs to a better two pair, not to mention a river 8 is a chop unless villian has a jack somewhere.

Two pair is probably the value hand I’ve lost the most money with, since it can be so hard to get away from. So that may have been in the back of my mind—wanting to get it in when I was pretty sure I was ahead, and not face a hard decision on the river…

 

[Taghkanic]

My 2 cents: all this seems fine to me other than the turn shove. Hero says it's for value targeting overpairs, but if you think the villain is calling overpairs+, then QQ+ has about 15% equity, JJ has 25% equity. That's 24 combos. But there are 4 combos of sets where you're dead. I think all the hands which are 2 overcards would not have bet 2 streets. With the info given it's hard to know what villain would be 3-betting, but best case scenario you have 70% equity with a call, and if he would 3B 77+ and some suited/connected, you're dead to 10 more set and straight combos and not picking up really any hands that call which you're beating (maybe 76s), in which case you only have about 50% equity. And even worse, if the turn bet folds out overpairs (as was the case), then you are in really bad shape when called. There's just not much fold equity to be gained given his likely holdings, and the hands that he folds are the ones you're likely to stay ahead of.

As a value bet this feels pretty marginal, and I would prefer a call where on the river those sticky over-pairs might bet again or where an ace or king pair his overcards and he will call a small river bet. The turn feels like a way ahead / way behind situation - it worked out here but I think playing more passively would have been wise in this spot. The amount of the investment to protect against getting counterfeited I think was outweighed by the times you risked being called and drawing dead.

You may be right. I guess on the one hand I discounted 88 as pretty unlikely, and also did not think he would be likely to have other sets except maybe 99 (since I’m blocking TT and 77, and I didn’t think he’d play 66 like that.) In which case, the turn shove would have some chance of pushing him off that set, since he would lose to any straights or TT that I could have, and might at best be racing against flush draws.

But yeah, my turn shove might be wrong. OTOH it was basically a pot sized bet. If I had just called, he’d have less than the pot left, and I’d have a hard time folding if he led out for either a couple hundred or even his remaining ~$400. What I’m saying was that I figured we were getting it in, so better to do so as the aggressor charging any calls.

 

[JustinInMN]

Two pair is probably the value hand I’ve lost the most money with, since it can be so hard to get away from. So that may have been in the back of my mind—wanting to get it in when I was pretty sure I was ahead, and not face a hard decision on the river…

Two pair is very deceptive. It beats one pair, but players that are drawing are often drawing to beat two pair as well.

There are three reasons for raising.

1) Value - you believe you can be called by weaker holdings
2) Protection - in other words to deny equity by charging opponents to draw to a hand than can improve.
3) Bluffing - make opponent fold a bigger hand.

When you shove the turn, you are prioritizing protection. And this pot is fairly substantial that it may worth protecting and forgoing another street of value that just looks hard to get anyway.

I do empathize with those that want to play for max value and gamble on a lower bet amount that could keep villain in. But with the four-liner out there it's hard to put villain on anything that can call at any price.

So prioritizing protection makes sense to me.

 

[NeutronHim]

I think the shove is a little light. If he's somewhat tight 3betting pre he just has way less straights than you there. The particular spot you've mentioned is one where you should be pushing him around a lot since you have way more straights than he does. Maybe it's more prudent to shove 97 / 99 / 77 as well as any 8 just so when you shove he doesn't have an 8 as often (99, 77 blocks 78s, 89s) which is a ton of combos, and then for bluffs a7 or a6 seems to make a lot of sense to block a few 8s, block a few sets, and also block AA, the overpair he's most likely to call off. (It's pretty obvious a7, a6 are behind on the turn anyhow so no point fretting about lost showdown value.) You've got a ton of value just via these combos and ~6 bluffs unless you are calling a 3bet with a7o/a6o, so I don't think you need to go further and ship it on him without at least blocking a lot of 8s. (He's way more likely to 3bet a suited connector like 78, 89 than a suited rapper like t8 which you block.)

Tldr: exploit the fact that he doesnt have enough straights. Ship two pair, sets bluffs if it blocks him from having 78s, 89s, or 88. (Put him in a tough spot with worse than a straight.) Ship any straight that doesnt also have a pair or an ace so you unblock aces and sets that will call.

Call a lot of other straights (def 98, t8), sets (tt, 66), 2p (7t, 69) and play some rivers. Rivers here are a great spot to exploit him -- you can get really wild because if he's moderately nitty preflop, he just doesn't have it (a straight.) But blocking the straight is pretty important. If hes not the type of player to 3bet even suited connectors, then all of a sudden shipping any 2 pair makes a lot more sense.

 

[Taghkanic]

I think the shove is a little light. If he's somewhat tight 3betting pre he just has way less straights than you there. The particular spot you've mentioned is one where you should be pushing him around a lot since you have way more straights than he does. Maybe it's more prudent to shove 97 / 99 / 77 as well as any 8 just so when you shove he doesn't have an 8 as often (99, 77 blocks 78s, 89s) which is a ton of combos, and then for bluffs a7 or a6 seems to make a lot of sense to block a few 8s, block a few sets, and also block AA, the overpair he's most likely to call off. (It's pretty obvious a7, a6 are behind on the turn anyhow so no point fretting about lost showdown value.) You've got a ton of value just via these combos and ~6 bluffs unless you are calling a 3bet with a7o/a6o, so I don't think you need to go further and ship it on him without at least blocking a lot of 8s. (He's way more likely to 3bet a suited connector like 78, 89 than a suited rapper like t8 which you block.)

Tldr: exploit the fact that he doesnt have enough straights. Ship two pair, sets bluffs if it blocks him from having 78s, 89s, or 88. (Put him in a tough spot with worse than a straight.) Ship any straight that doesnt also have a pair or an ace so you unblock aces and sets that will call.

Call a lot of other straights (def 98, t8), sets (tt, 66), 2p (7t, 69) and play some rivers. Rivers here are a great spot to exploit him -- you can get really wild because if he's moderately nitty preflop, he just doesn't have it (a straight.) But blocking the straight is pretty important. If hes not the type of player to 3bet even suited connectors, then all of a sudden shipping any 2 pair makes a lot more sense.

When he squeezed preflop I at first assumed he was doing so fairly wide, heavy on Ax hands, some other Broadway combos, but not exclusively suited, and not only pocket pairs. Postflop I thought his continuation range tightened, but still had very little 8x in it. So yes, a favorable flop for me, and even more favorable turn.

When he led for $120 on the turn, into a pot of $335–leaving himself with less than a pot sized bet behind—I didn’t think a call or min raise made much sense.

A call would have made the pot $575, and he’d have about $405 behind.

There aren’t many cards he would think are safe after I flat the turn, not even a K. So I’d expect him to mostly check, or maybe sometimes turn his overpair into a bluff. If he bluffs small, he should know I’m going to call or raise all on almost every time given the effective stack. If he shoves, he is value owning himself a lot of the time. So I don’t think I’m making a lot by either betting $200 or shoving when he checks—gonna fold same as the turn.

There are, by contrast, a fair number of scare cards for my specific hand on the river, making better two pairs, better straights, sets, etc. If he leads with a shove I may fold the worst hand.

So I guess I intuited (can’t say that I really consciously worked it out) that while my turn shove might cost me a small amount of EV from folds, and very very occasionally would run into 8x, the times he calls the $405 with worse would make me more profit overall in the long run. Say, maybe 25% of the time is enough? He seemed to be 51-49% fold/call.

But per my OP, I haven’t played enough with these guys yet to say for sure. I did think he was one of the more thinkinh players in the game, and still do. And I think this play may help me against him in future sessions… Time may tell, or not.