@Poker Zombie you are missing out on a lot of expected value for all the times he folds, which is obviously very high given how long he took to call.
Stealing the blinds and antes at this point is huge. Increasing his stack by over 20% is worth it.
There is no guarantee he will find another pocket pair to make a 3-bet shove against a late position raise to get a coin flip hand.
Even if he does get called he is in a coin flip vs AK AQ type hands and 20% equity vs the over pair still is something.
The pros use this time close to the bubble to increase their stacks because of how nitty people play. They know they can rob the blinds and antes like crazy, it is easy money.
The pros do, yes. The pros can because the pros are not down to 8 BB. The pros never play to make the money, the pros play to win.
If I were to parrot the pro advice, I would absolutely jam. No doubt there. But we aren't playing pro level poker here, we're playing short-stack survival poker. Even without the reveal, I had posted that he would only get called by a monster. I was right. Not a lucky guess, but an educated one honed by years of short-stack experience with tactics that the pros ignore.
Yes, he's a coin flip vs overcards, but he's only getting called by a monster. Using TJ Clouter's (see, I read pro stuff too) starting hand sizes we can assume villain would only call with AA/KK/QQ/JJ, or AK/AQs. 4 of those hands have him at a 20% underdog.
Jam here and you risk $1,500 for a single orbit worth of blinds/anties, which doesn't mean jack for our hero right now. It is a 5000+ player event and at this point people are dropping quickly. The money is in sight, and short stacks are getting tight, but there are big stacks aplenty to call anything. There are roughly 90 tables in play. The TD may even consider hand-for-hand play soon.
Fold, and you can hang on. Most likely, OP can easily fold for 6 more orbits and min-cash.
Now, I agree, min cash is not your ultimate goal, but at 8BB, winning is no longer your goal. You want to make the right shoves that pay 50% or better. Your goal is to have 12 BB when the bubble bursts. There are roughly 50 players that get paid the same, and the step-up in cash here are very small, so once the bubble busts, you will see a short-stack shove-fest as these old men are tired and want to go to bed. 12 BB will quickly become 24 BB, and then 48 BB. Only then should you re-write your goals once again, and set your goal for the final table.
I don't "hate" the shove, but I think it's not the best possible play.
