Tourney Thoughts on this tournament structure (River's Casino) (2 Viewers)

[BGinGA]

Didn't quite hit my target. Ended the day with 80k. We had 101 entries, and ended with to 21 after 12 levels (average stack 120k). So I'm in a mediocre position. I can do nothing and just enter Day 2 with 27BB and be in for $260. Or I could roll the dice and play another Day 1. But it seems pretty -EV to play another one given the format and my stack.

For $260, I'd probably give it another whack with major aggression in an attempt to accrue a massive pile of chips -- knowing that I have a fall-back plan of 27BB for Day 2 if I bust out.

 

[bentax1978]

Where are the Chip pictures!!!!!!!!!

I didn't take many (n) :thumbsdown:

Here's one I took, plus a picture of the starting stacks from their Facebook page. Btw, I hate the blurple T500.

 

[BGinGA]

I don't even SEE a blurple T500....


.... which is apparently it's problem. Holy cow, that's close to the T100. Many table errors?

 

[Forty4]

It took me a while to even see the T500.

 

[WedgeRock]

Where are the Chip pictures!!!!!!!!!

I didn't take many (n) :thumbsdown:

 

[upNdown]

For $260, I'd probably give it another whack with major aggression in an attempt to accrue a massive pile of chips -- knowing that I have a fall-back plan of 27BB for Day 2 if I bust out.

I like this, assuming a lot of people actually will buy in for day 2, so there's a lot of money to play for.
Is there any historic data to suggest how many people will buy in to day 2?

 

[Trihonda]

Didn't quite hit my target. Ended the day with 80k. We had 101 entries, and ended with to 21 after 12 levels (average stack 120k). So I'm in a mediocre position. I can do nothing and just enter Day 2 with 27BB and be in for $260. Or I could roll the dice and play another Day 1. But it seems pretty -EV to play another one given the format and my stack.

I think a stab at the main (day two) with 27bb (for $260) is better than an $1100 stab at the day two for 33bb. Or a $520 attempt, with no guarantee you'll improve.

 

[ChaosRock]

I think a stab at the main (day two) with 27bb (for $260) is better than an $1100 stab at the day two for 33bb.

I think that's kinda obvious Eric... But that's not a fair comparison since Bentax had to play quite a few hours to get to the 27BB Day 2 position... His chances of busting were higher than him moving on to Day 2... Yeah, after all is said and done, who would pay $840 for an addition 6 BB?!?!?!?!?

In other words, he EARNED playing a 27BB Day2 for $260 and not for $1,100.

 

[bentax1978]

I don't even SEE a blurple T500....


.... which is apparently it's problem. Holy cow, that's close to the T100. Many table errors?

It took me a while to even see the T500.

Honestly, there weren't nearly as many table errors as I thought there would be. I made one error with the T500, but it was actually a mix up with the T5000. Meant to bet 10k (2xT5k) into an empty side pot with a 25k main pot, but instead I only ended up betting 1k (2xT500). Worked out (I guess) as the other guy called the 1k but claims he would have folded to 10k. I also lost the main 3-way pot to the shorter stack all-in. I had AA, board was KKJQK, short stack had KQ, other guy said he had A high.

 

[bentax1978]

I like this, assuming a lot of people actually will buy in for day 2, so there's a lot of money to play for.
Is there any historic data to suggest how many people will buy in to day 2?

I don't think that many people will buy into day 2 directly, if for no other reason than there are 8 Day 1 flights to play in.

Not much historical data. It's a relatively new casino and only the second time they've done this format. Last time there was a total prize pool around 272k, and I think I backed out that the majority were from day 1 entries.

 

[bentax1978]

Didn't quite hit my target. Ended the day with 80k. We had 101 entries, and ended with to 21 after 12 levels (average stack 120k). So I'm in a mediocre position. I can do nothing and just enter Day 2 with 27BB and be in for $260. Or I could roll the dice and play another Day 1. But it seems pretty -EV to play another one given the format and my stack.

I think a stab at the main (day two) with 27bb (for $260) is better than an $1100 stab at the day two for 33bb. Or a $520 attempt, with no guarantee you'll improve.

Yeah, obviously buying directly into Day 2 for an extra 6BB for $1100 isn't even remotely a consideration at this point. Taking another stab at a Day 1 flight, effectively increasing my buy-in to $520, is a bit risky. In order to make it worth it, so to speak, I feel I'd have to end with at least 125k-150k chips. Realistically the odds of that are probably 10%, 15% at best. So from a pure dollar/EV perspective, it's probably not worth taking another stab at a Day 1 flight and just starting Day 2 with 27BB and hoping for some luck in the first 2-3 levels.

 

[Trihonda]

I think that's kinda obvious Eric... But that's not a fair comparison since Bentax had to play quite a few hours to get to the 27BB Day 2 position... His chances of busting were higher than him moving on to Day 2... Yeah, after all is said and done, who would pay $840 for an addition 6 BB?!?!?!?!?

In other words, he EARNED playing a 27BB Day2 for $260 and not for $1,100.

Yeah, obviously buying directly into Day 2 for an extra 6BB for $1100 isn't even remotely a consideration at this point. Taking another stab at a Day 1 flight, effectively increasing my buy-in to $520, is a bit risky. In order to make it worth it, so to speak, I feel I'd have to end with at least 125k-150k chips. Realistically the odds of that are probably 10%, 15% at best. So from a pure dollar/EV perspective, it's probably not worth taking another stab at a Day 1 flight and just starting Day 2 with 27BB and hoping for some luck in the first 2-3 levels.

I may have failed to make my point. I was rationalizing that your choice at a day 1 entry was better served than someone jumping into a day two (dollar to bb). I also think that a second day 1 entry might not be worthwhile...

 

[upNdown]

Meant to bet 10k (2xT5k) into an empty side pot

Slight digression, but this reminded me of my last tournament. I had just gotten moved. I was a 3 way pot, practically limped (one guy was all in for less than 1.5 bb.) On the flop, I don't even remember if I had a couple of high cards or a middle pair or what, but figured I was ahead of the limper, so I fired 3 bb at the sidepot. Limper immmeidely folds. Turned out I was ahead, but the all-in sucked out and won.
The limper who folded starts making a big deal to the guys around him, laughing about how stupid it was for me to bet there, because I wasn't going to win any more money.
This guy was just a douche and normally I'd be amused at his idiocy, but for some reason it really ticked me off.
How can you possibly not understand that move? Either fight for the pot or don't, but don't whine about it or act like i'm the idiot.

 

[derekdd23]

those t500s are a joke, luckily there are not too many.

I think 27BB would prevent me from spending an entire day trying to do it again when there are some cash games to be played.

 

[bentax1978]

I think 27BB would prevent me from spending an entire day trying to do it again when there are some cash games to be played.

This is what it most likely comes down to. If I'm going to spend another 7 hours playing poker between now and Sunday, it would be far more +EV for me to play cash.

I actually kept my eye on the board all night and had the 5/0 PLO table opened up, I would have starring pushing my tournament stack with reckless abandon

There's also that the big televised $25/50 NLHE game tonight at Rivers I was telling you about last night... If only I wasn't so nitty about putting up almost my entire poker bankroll for a single buy-in.

 

[JoseRijo]

Yeah, obviously buying directly into Day 2 for an extra 6BB for $1100 isn't even remotely a consideration at this point.

Wouldn't that make your current stack worth about $900? That's money you are throwing away if you played the other day 1 and ended up with more chips. I can't see how that works to your benefit.

 

[bentax1978]

Wouldn't that make your current stack worth about $900? That's money you are throwing away if you played the other day 1 and ended up with more chips. I can't see how that works to your benefit.

Yeah, right around that amount. And I agree with your assessment; finishing with 80k in chips puts me in a position where I can't really justify playing another Day 1 flight.

Assuming I had a 10-15% chance of finishing another flight with 160k+ in chips, I'd still basically be looking at a small chance of doubling my stack (and my outlay) or having my stack stay the same (but still doubling my outlay). Overall pretty -EV.

 

[bentax1978]

FWIW, here are the bagged chip counts for the first two flights (Day 1a/1b), and there are six more flights to go before Sunday's Day 2.

Average stack so far is 103,800. Blind levels on Day 2 are 1500/3000/500.

258,000
243,500
205,500
198,000
190,500
169,500
169,000
145,000
145,000
144,000
140,000
123,500
118,500
118,000
117,500
115,000
113,500
109,500
109,500
103,500
102,000
98,500
92,000
90,000
88,500
85,000
83,500
82,000
79,500
74,000
73,000
72,000
71,500
67,500
67,000
66,500
55,000
55,000
54,500
52,500
51,500
51,500
40,500
38,500
33,500
13,500

 

[WedgeRock]

Plenty of play in 26 BB's. Go get 'em!

 

[BGinGA]

Wouldn't that make your current stack worth about $900?

Jose may be on to something here. Sell your Day 2 spot and chips to somebody for a tidy profit. Cash offers only, please.

 

[bentax1978]

Jose may be on to something here. Sell your Day 2 spot and chips to somebody for a tidy profit. Cash offers only, please.

If they weren't so strict about matching the name on your bagged chips to the name on your ID, that might be a viable option

 

[BGinGA]

Fake ID? I know a guy.....

 

[bentax1978]

There's also that the big televised $25/50 NLHE game tonight at Rivers I was telling you about last night... If only I wasn't so nitty about putting up almost my entire poker bankroll for a single buy-in.

Here's a live feed of the game.

 

[bentax1978]

Cards fly in 3 minutes. Average stack is a little under 105k. We'll see what I can do with a slightly smaller stack of 79.5k to start. (y) :thumbsup:

 

[links_slayer]

sending lots and lots and lots of rungood your way. take it down!

 

[bentax1978]

First four hands:

-500
-500
-20,500
+71,000

 

[bentax1978]

Up to 195k.

 

[bentax1978]

Down to 145k (24BB). Antes are up to 1k, blinds 3/6k.

Need a little good fortune if this run is going to continue into the late afternoon.

 

[David O]

Down to 145k (24BB). Antes are up to 1k, blinds 3/6k.

Need a little good fortune if this run is going to continue into the late afternoon.

Sending good fortune and lots of run good to you!

 

[derekdd23]

NY tourney run good is strong this week, you got this!