Thoughts on this line? (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

I think this is A-OK as I called V's jam with 91% equity and he sucked out.
Just interested in feedback.
ACR 10NL Blitz. No HUD or reads.

HJ RFI 2BB, Hero flats on BN with 55. BB calls. I dont think there is much debate here.

Hero flops a set and V cbets just under 1/2 pot. Hero raises to 10BB or 3x.
I think this is probably a mix in terms of calling or raising but with bottom set we unblock V's calling range of Ax/Jx.
It does look strong raising multi-way but this is another case where I'm deciding to fast play. I dont see BB's range connecting in a meaningful way.
If V calls he probably has Ax or Jx and we have a shot at winning more.

BB folds and V calls.

QT gets there on the river. But I dont think V is calling the raise with a gutter as the odds are poor.
I think it more likely that V has Ax or Jx and I bet 1/2 pot or 14BB.

V raises to 2x. Maybe a strong hand worried about the FD.
Hero thinks that there are 2x more combos of AJ (9) and AK (9) than KK/JJ/AA (total of 9).

So we click it back thinking a larger size might be too much and hoping V will jam his 2 pair.

And V jams his 2 pair. We call with 91% equity - feeling good.

And V hits his 4 outer and over-boats us! I figure I got it all in well ahead and variance struck - no reason to question my play?

 

[JMC9389]

Just a nasty cooler. Would have just flatted on the flop but otherwise it's hard to put someone on exactly Q 10 or top two.

 

[Legend5555]

In line the line. I wouldn't be super worried about QT as it's multiway which should lower how often they c-bet QT. If anything you are getting wrecked by JJ and rarely AA. But they can have so much AJ and AK, that I'm just getting it in on turn. I think your goofy turn 3 bet is still given stack sizes though. Just jam because any raise is committing anyway and nobody is folding AJ or AK here after raising turn anyway.

 

[Kentucky]

As others have said, the idea of the game is to get your opponents’ money in the pot when you are 90% to win, so well done.

As a strategy exercise I’m wondering if I would’ve played differently as HJ.
AJo is a pretty standard RFI and calls from BTN and BB should be wide.

I smash Flop. It also smashes my range. I discount AA & JJ from Villains’ range so I have nut advantage too. A C-bet is standard.

Raise from Villain on BTN is concerning, but he only beats us with 55s specifically. He might be bluff-raising with Axs, maybe QTs. I call.

On Turn, Hero checks in flow, Villain continues for 1/2 pot. QT gets there. AK now beats us too and might play this way, but I’d expect a 3! pre-. Still loosing to 55s, Ax hearts gets a FD for bluffs. Villain on a chop free rolling a flush draw would hurt. I think this is an easy call, but I’m not sure I raise. Maybe I would shovel money in?Maybe this is where the counter-factual differs from reality?

How would y’all play as HJ? Are you far enough ahead of BTNs range to get it all in on the turn?